Oracle Most Improbable Comeback

Oracle Most Improbable Comeback shortlist

Everton 2-3 AFC Bournemouth, 31 Aug
Trailing 2-0 after 86 minutes, AFC Bournemouth were given a 98.50 per cent chance of losing. But Antoine Semenyo pulled a goal back in the 87th minute, and Lewis Cook and Luis Sinisterra then completed an incredible turnaround with stoppage-time goals, the winner coming in the sixth minute of added time. 

Southampton 2-3 Leicester, 19 Oct
Leicester City were 2-0 down after 64 minutes and had a 92.56 per cent chance of losing before Facundo Buonanotte reignited their hopes. Southampton's Ryan Fraser was then sent off while conceding a penalty, which Jamie Vardy converted, and there was a dramatic finale as Jordan Ayew hit the winner for Leicester in the eighth minute of stoppage time.

Man City 1-2 Man Utd, 15 Dec
Josko Gvardiol's first-half goal looked like it was going to be decisive as Manchester City held their lead into the 88th minute. At that point, Manchester United had an 88.64 per cent chance of losing. But in an astonishing twist, Amad sparked an incredible late revival, winning a penalty that Bruno Fernandes converted before scoring himself in the 90th minute to steal a derby victory against all the odds.

Chelsea 1-2 Fulham, 26 Dec
Chelsea led 1-0 after 81 minutes thanks to Cole Palmer's brilliant solo goal, and Fulham’s chances of defeat stood at 88.40 per cent. However, Harry Wilson scored a close-range header to equalise, and substitute Rodrigo Muniz grabbed a 95th-minute winner in a Boxing Day classic.

Brighton 3-2 Spurs, 6 Oct
Tottenham Hotspur led 2-0 in the 48th minute, giving Brighton an 87.21 per cent chance of losing. But Yankuba Minteh halved the deficit and Georginio Rutter levelled the scores just before the hour-mark, before Danny Welbeck rose to head in a 66th-minute winner, completing a sensational 18-minute turnaround and victory for the home team.

How Most Improbable Comeback award is calculated

The Most Improbable Comeback award is based on the Win Probability Statistic developed by Stats Perform, which calculates the chance of a team securing a win or draw by simulating the remainder of the match 100,000 times.  

The model is based on four years of match data and takes into account if a team are home or away, the current score, penalties awarded, players on the pitch, red cards and time left in the match. 

The probability of a win is calculated every minute for every Premier League match in a season, in real-time. 

Every Most Improbable Comeback winner

2024/25 season award winners

EA SPORTS Player of the Season: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
Hublot Young Player of the Season: Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool)
Barclays Manager of the Season: Arne Slot (Liverpool)