Bournemouth win 2022/23 Oracle Most Improbable Comeback award

30 May 2023
AFC Bournemouth, Oracle Most Improbable Comeback award

Cherries claim prize after battling back from 2-0 down to secure a sensational victory at Nott'm Forest

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In a season of so many thrills and rollercoaster matches, the winner of the Most Improbable Comeback award, powered by Oracle, the Premier League's official cloud provider, was always going to be something special.

And that was AFC Bournemouth's sensational 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest at the City Ground on 3 September.

It was Gary O'Neil's second match in charge of the team, having taken over from Scott Parker, who had been dismissed following a record 9-0 defeat at Liverpool

Bournemouth had claimed only one point from their opening four matches and went into half-time at the City Ground trailing 2-0 after goals from Cheikhou Kouyate and Brennan Johnson.

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At that point, the Win Probability Statistic developed by Stats Perform had Bournemouth's chances of winning at only 3.6 per cent. This probability is calculated every minute for every Premier League match in a season, in real-time.

The model is based on five years of match data and takes into account if a team are home or away, the current score, penalties awarded, players on the pitch, red cards and time left in the match. 

Those chances fell to 2.4 per cent as the second half progressed, until Philip Billing pulled a goal back in the 51st minute.

Bournemouth's chances of taking three points back to the south coast then became 10.2 per cent, but dipped again as time ran down. Then Dominic Solanke drew Bournemouth level in the 63rd minute.

As the clock edged towards 90 minutes, the chances of an unlikely Cherries victory dipped once more to 10.6 per cent, until an 87th-minute goal from Jaidon Anthony delivered O'Neil's first victory in charge.

Event Match Time NFO win % Draw % BOU win %
Kick-off (0-0) 00:00 26.8 28.6 44.6
NFO goal (1-0) 32:38 56.7 27.1 16.2
NFO goal (2-0) 46:49 85.4 11.0 3.6
  50:22 88.3 9.3 2.4
BOU goal (2-1) 50:24 64.2 25.6 10.2
  62:20 69.0 24.2 6.8
BOU goal (2-2) 62:21 22.4 49.9 27.7
  86:19 9.1 80.3 10.6
BOU goal (2-3) 86:20 0.6 9.7 89.7

AFC Bournemouth claim the award on the basis that they came back to win from the most improbable circumstances, using the Win Probability Statistic.

See: How Oracle calculates the Most Improbable Comeback award

2022/23 awards winners

EA SPORTS Player of the Season - Erling Haaland
Hublot Young Player of the Season - Erling Haaland
Oracle Most Powerful Goal - Said Benrahma
Barclays Manager of the Season - Pep Guardiola
Castrol Game Changer of the Season - Reiss Nelson
Castrol Save of the Season - Kepa Arrizabalaga
Budweiser Goal of the Season - Julio Enciso

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