Analysis: Where Nottingham Forest v Chelsea will be won and lost

Football writer Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 38.

Match analysis: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea

Forest and Chelsea already know they will play in Europe next season, but which competition will they qualify for?

NFO

15:00

CHE

close

TV Info - Broadcasters

Key battle: Elanga v Cucurella

When people discuss Forest’s fantastic exploits this season, it feels as if several other names get mentioned ahead of Anthony Elanga.

That feels a little unfair on the 23-year-old winger, who continues to thrive under the guidance of Nuno Espirito Santo.

The speedy Elanga has proved he can deliver consistent end product in the Premier League, scoring six goals and creating 11 assists (the third most in the division this season).

Since the start of April, he has also stepped up to produce several hugely important moments.

His last goal was a magnificent dribble and finish from inside his own half to score the winner against his former club Manchester United.

Elanga goal v Man Utd

He has also chipped in with three precious assists in recent weeks, all from set-piece situations.

From a quickly taken free-kick at Tottenham Hotspur, Elanga made a clever run into the left channel before curling a delicious inswinging cross onto the head of Chris Wood.

It was the fifth assist Elanga has provided the New Zealander this season.

If he starts on the right wing for Forest on Sunday, Elanga will be chaperoned by in-form Chelsea left-back Marc Cucurella.

The Spaniard is notoriously aggressive in his defending, and loves getting touch tight to wingers, preventing them from running in behind.

It is a ploy he will surely repeat against the third-fastest player in this season’s Premier League, with Elanga clocked at a top speed of 36.66 km/h.

PL fastest players 24/25

None of Chelsea’s back four have registered a top speed above 34.51 km/h so Elanga's pace will be an asset that tests them, especially when the hosts spring a counter-attack.

No one on either side has had more goalscoring attempts from fast breaks than Elanga (12).

From a tactical perspective, Cucurella will look to push the winger back into his own half.

The left-back takes up lots of advanced positions, sometimes as a second striker.

When you study the below map of his shots and key passes in 2024/25, it is clear how often Cucurella pops up centrally to impact matches inside the final third.

Rather than flying down the wing to cross, he steps infield to get on the end of crosses.

Click here to zoom in on the graphic.

Which playmaker will shine brightest?

Cole Palmer has not scored a goal in open play since mid-January, but with the stakes so high, the stage feels set for Chelsea’s talisman to make his mark.

Performance levels have generally been good, but just one penalty goal and two assists in 21 matches in all competitions is way below par for the gifted 23-year-old.

In the absence of Nicolas Jackson – although it has been reported Christopher Nkunku and Marc Guiu are fit to be involved – there is a big onus on Palmer to come up with something special.

Blues head coach Enzo Maresca is right to have full trust in Palmer, even if his numbers have dropped. 

Over the course of 2024/25, Palmer has still created far more than anybody else who will be on the City Ground pitch this weekend.

And on a per 90-minute basis, he creates double the number of big chances than Forest counterpart Morgan Gibbs-White, for example.

Back in October, Palmer created six chances against Forest at Stamford Bridge.

Chances created per 90 

Gibbs-White, who was called up by England boss Thomas Tuchel this week, has 15 direct goal involvements, with three of those coming in the last two games.

His goals and assists often arrive at key moments, and when collated together, those contributions have helped Forest claim 16 extra points.

No one at the City Ground will be surprised if he supplies another telling goal or assist on the final day.

Forest’s set-piece prowess

With one round of matches left to play, Forest are leading the way with the most set-piece goals.

Set-piece goals

Elanga and Elliot Anderson both deliver excellent dead balls, and in the shape of Wood and Nikola Milenkovic, they have two extremely dangerous team-mates to aim for.

Interestingly, it was those two who combined to help Forest score in the 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge earlier this season.

A long free-kick from halfway was met by Milenkovic, who climbed highest to knock the ball down for Wood to score.

Last time out at West Ham United, Elanga also crossed brilliantly for the Serbian to flick a crucial header into the corner (below).

Wood, who has 20 Premier League goals to his name, is by some distance the best finisher involved in Sunday’s pivotal encounter.

The hosts boast four of the top five in that department ahead of this game.

Shot conversion rate

Could it come down to the goalkeepers?

The goalkeepers’ performances are likely to have a huge bearing on the outcome of this match.

When these two sides last met, both Matz Sels and Robert Sanchez enjoyed memorable performances, making seven and eight saves respectively.

Sels made the harder saves, denying Chelsea a second goal when their xG stood at 2.46 in that contest.

The Forest goalkeeper has been in sparkling form in recent weeks too and is looking to keep a 14th clean sheet of the campaign in this final match.

If he does so, he will at least earn a share of the 2024/25 Golden Glove award, with Arsenal’s David Raya also on 13 clean sheets heading into Sunday.

Chelsea goalkeeper Sanchez has come in for some criticism this season, and he has made the joint-most errors leading to goals (five) among Premier League players in his position.

Yet his shot-stopping has been very good, ranking him second (just ahead of Sels) in the save percentage table.

Save percentage (min. 10 starts)

On a day when fine margins are almost certain to decide the fate of these two sides, the goalkeeper who rises to the occasion best is very likely to make themselves a hero in the race for Europe.

Race For The Champions League

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
3	Man City MCI	37	+26	68
4	Newcastle NEW	37	+22	66
5	Chelsea CHE	37	+20	66
6	Aston Villa AVL	37	+9	66
7	Nott'm Forest NFO	37	+13	65

View the full table