Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Huge Champions League decider between Forest and Chelsea
- Will Villa sneak into the top five?
- Will Howe’s midfield cope with a bullish Everton?
- Will stubborn Fulham cause a problem for Haaland-led Man City?
- Will Anfield be the happiest place in the country on Sunday?
- Can Southampton repeat Man City performance and avoid an unwanted record?
- Can Ipswich finally get a home win and give fans something positive to remember?
- Will stubborn Fulham cause a problem for Haaland-led Man City?
- Can Wolves end on a high - and prevent a slightly bitter aftertaste?
- How do Bournemouth go about improving their home record?
Huge Champions League decider between Forest and Chelsea
Just three points separate third from seventh going into the final day, an unprecedented situation that means any three of five chasing clubs can still qualify for the UEFA Champions League.
There are almost too many matches to keep an eye on, too many stories to follow, but at least neutrals will know which fixture to tune in to at kick-off: a six-pointer at the City Ground that could be the greatest day in Nottingham Forest’s 21st-century history.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side may just have the advantage. Chelsea rank 11th in the Premier League on away form and have won only one of their last 11 matches on the road in the competition, a late Pedro Neto strike beating Fulham 2-1 last month.
What’s more, Chelsea’s possession-centric approach under Enzo Maresca can make them too sterile and sideways when faced with counter-attacking opponents.
Chelsea have only won two of their seven matches in which they’ve held 65 per cent or more possession, which includes a 1-1 draw with Forest at Stamford Bridge back in October.
Nevertheless, it’s too close to call and a Chelsea win feels plausible if things get nervy.
Champions League qualification would be a wonderful bonus for Forest but it’s a necessity for Chelsea, who spent big again last summer and cannot afford to fall short for a third season in a row.
Whatever happens at the City Ground, at least one of these clubs will be devastated – and possibly both.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Man City
MCI
|
37 | +26 | 68 |
| 4 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
37 | +22 | 66 |
| 5 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
37 | +20 | 66 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
37 | +9 | 66 |
| 7 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
37 | +13 | 65 |
Will Villa sneak into the top five?
Aston Villa supporters will be holding their breath when the team news lands on Sunday – but not to see who lines up in claret and blue.
Ruben Amorim could pick a youthful second string, effectively deciding Manchester United’s season concluded with the UEFA Europa League defeat on Wednesday, or he could put out his strongest XI with demands they give an apology to the Old Trafford faithful.
Unai Emery won’t be focusing on that, but rather on how his team can continue their superb form to get only their second victory at Man Utd since 2009.
Villa fans may always fear the worst visiting Old Trafford, but their team are in-form even if Man Utd are inspired to end the campaign on a high.
Not that victory will necessarily be enough. Villa need either Newcastle United or Chelsea to drop points, or Manchester City to lose, to sneak into the top five.
They will be proud of their campaign, a third successive year in Europe, whatever happens. But Champions League qualification could take Villa to the next level.
Will Howe’s midfield cope with a bullish Everton?
The Goodison Park farewell took a lot out of Everton, but playing without pressure they might just fancy their chances of an upset at St James' Park.
Eddie Howe could be without Alexander Isak, whose absence at Arsenal explains why Newcastle drew a blank, but more importantly their new 3-4-3 formation was designed for reactive football against Chelsea and Liverpool.
Newcastle will likely revert to a 4-3-3, meaning Joe Willock, just back from injury, coming into the middle of the park.
Considering how tired the Magpies looked in the second half last weekend, there is a risk their central midfield won’t be able to match the physicality of Idrissa Gueye, James Garner and Abdoulaye Doucoure.
Then again, Newcastle tend to play with fire and fury on home soil, winning each of their last six Premier League matches at St James' Park.
Howe’s side also benefit from the clarity of not having to worry about anyone else’s results: win on Sunday and Newcastle are back in the Champions League.
Often on the final day the team with something to play for beats the team without a clear aim.
Newcastle should have the upper hand, then. But Everton will not make it easy.
Will stubborn Fulham cause a problem for Haaland-led Man City?
Man City’s 3-1 win against AFC Bournemouth on Tuesday night was simple enough, but for that they can thank Andoni Iraola’s wide-open formation.
A trip to Craven Cottage will be significantly more difficult. Marco Silva’s Fulham side will compress space far better, and therefore could bring out the same stilted and goal-shy Man City we saw in the FA Cup final.
Erling Haaland does not look like himself since returning from injury, further increasing the likelihood that Fulham can keep the score at 0-0 and get Pep Guardiola sweating.
City only need to avoid defeat to guarantee a place in the Champions League next season. They are widely expected to get the job against a Fulham side no longer competing for a place in Europe.
But of the five clubs in the race for a Champions League place, Man City have the most deceptively difficult challenge. They aren’t there just yet.
Will Anfield be the happiest place in the country on Sunday?
Supporters basking in the sunshine at Anfield on Sunday won’t have a care in the world.
The home fans will be in party mood as they await the Premier League Trophy presentation that takes place after the final whistle, while the Crystal Palace fans who make the journey to Liverpool will have been partying all week.
It could make for a brilliantly entertaining game of football. There are always a few games on the final day that have a slightly giddy "end of term" feeling, but rarely do we get a fixture with two sets of players on cloud nine.
Maybe the forwards on both teams will feel confidence flowing through them and click into action. Maybe defending will go out of the window. Maybe we’ll get a 5-5 draw, or maybe Palace won’t quite have recovered from their tearful triumph on Saturday and Liverpool will win by a huge margin.
Anything could happen. There’s absolutely nothing riding on this – other than Mohamed Salah’s desire to bag two goal involvements and set a new Premier League record - but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a thoroughly entertaining match.
Can Southampton repeat Man City performance and avoid an unwanted record?
There is more to this contest than meets the eye. Simon Rusk, taking charge of Southampton for one final time, will be keen to see a repeat of their 0-0 draw with Man City a fortnight ago and make sure Saints don’t set a record.
That point ensured Southampton moved clear of Derby County’s record low of 11 points, but Rusk’s side have now lost 29 league matches, the joint-most losses suffered by a side in a single Premier League campaign after Ipswich Town (1994/95), Sunderland (2005/06), Derby (2007/08) and Sheffield United (2020/21).
One more would set an outright record of 30, possibly reopening conversations about this being the single worst campaign in Premier League history. Derby fans would certainly argue as much.
Saints will need a huge dose of luck to avoid it. Man City had 26 shots in that 0-0 draw and accrued an Expected Goals (xG) of 1.82, but just couldn’t put their chances away.
Arsenal probably won’t be as profligate.
Can Ipswich finally get a home win and give fans something positive to remember?
When Kieran McKenna looks back on the 2024/25 campaign and assesses what his team could have done differently, he will no doubt regret Ipswich’s home form.
Despite looking competitive in most matches through the first half of the season, Ipswich have so far won just once in the Premier League at Portman Road in 2024/25, beating Chelsea 2-0 on 30 December.
That’s a miserable record for their supporters to have endured. It’s also a joint-record low in the Premier League, alongside Sunderland in 2005/06 and Derby in 2007/08.
Here is one final chance, then, to put that right. Ipswich fans certainly deserve one final positive memory from a disappointing season.
Will Spurs ride Europa League wave to make a statement for the future?
The celebrations following Tottenham Hotspur's Europa League final victory will have gone long into the night, and there is of course the possibility that Ange Postecoglou will rest his key players for a final match of the campaign.
That’s great news for Brighton & Hove Albion, who only need a point to guarantee an eighth-place finish, which still has an outside chance of bringing Europa Conference League football.
But if Spurs are riding a new wave of hope, then this could be a prime opportunity for Postecoglou to show Daniel Levy what the future could look like.
"Yes, I do [want to stay]," he said after Wednesday's final success. “I don’t feel I’ve completed the job yet.
"We need to add some experience to it, we're in the Champions League. My thought process and what I've been doing is trying to build a team that can be successful for four, five or six years.”
Spurs won the Europa League final playing the polar opposite of Ange-ball, however, and therefore Sunday’s match could be used to showcase the best of his expansive football.
Spurs’ players should be soaring after Wednesday night. Channel that energy into a good performance, and maybe the Europa League triumph can become the beginning, not the end, of the journey.
Can Wolves end on a high - and prevent a slightly bitter aftertaste?
Vitor Pereira has done a brilliant job at Wolverhampton Wanderers and there really isn’t anything that can happen on Sunday to change that.
Wolves have won 32 points from 21 matches since his appointment, but until recently they could boast top-five form under Pereira. Three defeats on the bounce has dragged them back down towards a level that’s still respectable – but not quite so head-turning.
Four Premier League losses to end the season would take the sheen off ever so slightly, and certainly would not be good preparation for an important summer.
Things might already feel a little on edge, given widespread reports that Matheus Cunha is wanted by Man Utd. To lose four in a row could see heads drop a little after what had been such a promising and optimistic few months.
How do Bournemouth go about improving their home record?
Defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday evening means Bournemouth cannot finish eighth, ending their outside hopes of a place in European competition next season.
They can already begin to plan for 2025/26, then, and Iraola’s chief concern will be improving upon their record at Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth won three of their first five home Premier League matches of the season, including Arsenal and Man City, but since that 2-1 victory over City on 2 November, they have only won four times at home, each one to nil.
Only winning with clean sheets, and beating "Big Six" teams but few others, tells us Bournemouth’s issue is their need to be the underdog: when expected to play more progressively, they concede goals and struggle to get points.
Leicester City, who beat them 1-0 in the reverse fixture, will be the kind of defensive opponents Bournemouth don’t tend to enjoy playing.
But before next season begins, Iraola needs to work out how.