On the final day of the season, five teams will battle for the three remaining places in next season's UEFA Champions League. Here, football writer Alex Keble assesses the contenders - Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest - and their fixtures.
The Premier League has never seen a final day quite like this.
We’ve had to-the-wire battles for Champions League places before, but only ever between two clubs fighting for the final spot.
This season FIVE teams, competing for three spots, are separated by just three points, setting us up for an unprecedented afternoon of twists and turns. It’ll be agonising for fans of the clubs involved, and gripping entertainment for the rest of us.
All five clubs see Champions League qualification as essential. Two of them won’t make it and, unless Chelsea finish sixth and win the UEFA Conference League on 28 May, one will even miss out on UEFA Europa League football.
Man City and Newcastle will expect to win their respective matches against Fulham and Everton and secure their spots in the top five. They are both clear favourites, which would leave one place for the winner of the final-day meeting between Nottingham Forest and Chelsea – or Aston Villa, if they can sneak above both of those sides.
But on a day of nervous football and a chaotic live table, frankly anything could happen.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Man City
MCI
|
37 | +26 | 68 |
| 4 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
37 | +22 | 66 |
| 5 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
37 | +20 | 66 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
37 | +9 | 66 |
| 7 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
37 | +13 | 65 |
Man City: Guardiola’s rebuild demands Champions League
What they need:
- Draw v Fulham
- OR if Man City lose, two of their rivals to draw
The way Man City breezed past AFC Bournemouth on Tuesday evening reaffirmed what we already knew: pressure never really gets to Pep Guardiola’s players.
They’ve been here before, although perhaps never quite in such a precarious state.
City are used to challenging for titles on the final day. They aren’t so familiar with fighting for the future direction of the team.
Guardiola has a big task getting City ready for a title challenge next season, and that job would become considerably more difficult without the financial windfall of Champions League football, and with the gruelling Thursday-Sunday schedule of the Europa League.
But in all honesty, they should be fine.
If they beat Fulham at Craven Cottage, Man City will finish no lower than third, while a draw will be enough to guarantee Champions League qualification (unless Villa beat Man Utd by 17 goals).
Fulham have lost 17 consecutive matches against Man City in all competitions and haven’t won any of the last 23. You have to go back to April 2009 for the last time Fulham got three points against them.
Man City should avoid defeat and take the first of the three remaining Champions League spots.
It’s below Guardiola’s side that things get interesting.
Newcastle: One win to take a big step towards the elite
What they need:
- Win v Everton
- OR hope teams below them also drop points
"Newcastle United deserve to be top of the Premier League," Amanda Staveley, then-director, said shortly after leading the purchase of the club in 2021. "We want to get there. It will take time, but we will get there."
That dream is only possible with the financial and reputational rewards of regular Champions League football, which is why Newcastle are desperate to return to Europe's elite competition following a season without any European fixtures.
It’s also why there is subtly more pressure on Newcastle than anyone else.
Their mission is clear, their task on Sunday the most straightforward of the lot. All Eddie Howe’s side need to do is beat Everton on home soil.
Win, and they step up the ladder again. Draw, and it’s likely Villa and Chelsea or Forest would climb above them, leaving them outside the top five and undermining all their good work.
Missing out on Champions League football this season would make their presence in the 2022/23 campaign feel like a one-off. What’s more, with four of the Premier League's "Big Six" clubs underperforming this year, it would feel like a missed opportunity.
But they ought to get the job done.
Newcastle have won their last six Premier League home matches. The atmosphere at St James' Park will be electric, meaning Howe’s team should race out of the blocks and blow Everton away.
Yet there is a nagging feeling that Alexander Isak’s injury, tiredness creeping into the team, and Everton’s powerful central midfield could combine to make for a nervous and frustrating afternoon.
If you want to win titles, these are the kinds of pressurised moments you have to deal with.
Chelsea: Qualification needed after big spending
What they need:
- Win v Forest
- OR draw v Forest, and Aston Villa draw
Perhaps none of the five clubs need Champions League qualification quite like Chelsea and Enzo Maresca.
Since the change of ownership in 2022, Chelsea have spent huge sums of money on transfers in an attempt to get back to the top of the pile. They are yet to even qualify for the Champions League under BlueCo.
Indeed, Chelsea haven’t won the title since 2017, maxing out at 74 points over the last eight years. Supporters are understandably becoming impatient.
Maresca has come under fire at times for playing slow possession football, but to finish in the top five, with a Europa Conference League final still to come, would represent a solid debut campaign.
Unfortunately for him, Chelsea face a very difficult task.
They need to win away at Forest to guarantee a place in the Champions League. A draw opens the door to Villa, while defeat would see Forest leap above them.
And for several reasons, a win on Sunday doesn’t feel likely.
Forest fans will create an intimidating atmosphere at the City Ground but, more importantly, Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic will fancy themselves against a Chelsea attack missing Nicolas Jackson, especially at home.
Chelsea have the 11th-best away form in the Premier League this season and have won just one of their last 11 away from Stamford Bridge.
As if that wasn’t enough, this season Chelsea have only won two of their seven matches in which they’ve held 65 per cent or more of the ball. One of those seven was a 1-1 draw against Forest at Stamford Bridge.
Sunday’s game will follow that pattern. It might also bring the same result.
Aston Villa: Now's the time to improve record at Old Trafford
What they need:
- Win v Man Utd, and Chelsea or Newcastle don’t win
- Win v Man Utd and Man City lose
- OR draw v Man Utd, and Newcastle lose
Like Newcastle, Villa have owners who are hugely ambitious.
Qualifying again for the Champions League would provide a financial windfall that allows the club to continue to build, while helping establish Villa as a major player on the European stage.
Given how close Villa came to matching Paris Saint-Germain in their quarter-final, Unai Emery might even believe that a second crack at the Champions League could end with the ultimate prize.
Certainly, super-club status becomes a genuine possibility if Villa can make a habit of Champions League qualification, particularly with Emery at the helm and plans for the expansion of Villa Park under way.
For that to happen, they need a favour from Everton, Fulham or, most likely, Forest. Anything but a Chelsea win ensures Villa only need to win at Old Trafford to get into the top five.
But no matter what team Ruben Amorim picks, that is not a given.
Villa’s record at Old Trafford is poor. Supporters hate this journey, having seen their team win just once there since 2009. Even last season, when they were 2-0 up on Boxing Day, Villa conspired to lose.
Still, they ought to beat a side who have collected just two points from the last eight Premier League matches.
As long as they do, Villa will be satisfied no matter what happens elsewhere.
To end with a higher points tally than last season would be cause for celebration, while qualifying for the Europa League could be a blessing in disguise. It’s a competition Emery has won four times before.
Nottingham Forest: Dream is alive – but fans will be happy no matter what
What they need: Win v Chelsea, and Villa or Newcastle draw
Those dropped points at home to relegated Leicester City still haunt Forest fans. It took Champions League qualification out of their hands; even if Forest beat Chelsea in the head-to-head, they need Villa or Newcastle to draw in order to finish in the top five.
The path looks narrowest for Forest and yet, although on an emotional level Champions League football would arguably mean more to their fans than any of the other four clubs, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are under the least pressure.
Forest have already won. They are the first team in Premier League history to double their points tally from one season to the next, and whatever happens on Sunday they will still bring European football to the City Ground for the first time in 30 years.
The 2024/25 season has been an unqualified success, even if they end up finishing seventh and going into the Conference League, a fate that could, by the way, give them a decent chance of winning European silverware in 2025/26.
Perhaps playing without quite so much pressure on Sunday will work in Forest's favour. They look stronger in defence than Chelsea do in attack, as we’ve already covered, and they will enjoy counter-attacking into the space behind Maresca’s high line.
Forest don’t need the Champions League as much as the others - and that might prove to be the reason why they make it.