Alex Keble previews Arsenal and Manchester City's quarter-final ties in the UEFA Champions League against Bayern Munich and Real Madrid respectively.
The Champions League returns tonight with Arsenal and Man City kicking off at the same time and on the same side of the draw.
A first all-English semi-final since 2009 is on the cards, but any Premier League fans expecting that outcome should pause to consider the counter-arguments.
For one of these teams, this is business as usual and a routine appearance in the final eight. For the other, it’s a first Champions League quarter-final since 2010.
For one of them, the opposition is floundering domestically and threatens to spin out of control. For the other, the most decorated club and manager in the competition's history stands in the way.
Here’s a look at what Arsenal and Man City can expect on Tuesday, starting with the Gunners.
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Bayern are having a disastrous season
Things have gone drastically wrong under Thomas Tuchel.
Tuchel and Bayern agreed to part ways in February, but in keeping with a farcical campaign, they decided to limp on together until the end of the season.
It has prompted even worse performances, culminating in consecutive league defeats in the build-up to tonight's match.
Following the 3-2 defeat to Heidenheim on Saturday, which left Bayern 16 points adrift of Bayer Leverkusen and level with VfB Stuttgart, Tuchel told reporters his team had “actually completely stopped playing soccer” in the second half.
It was a typical tone struck by the beleaguered Tuchel, who has previously bemoaned the team’s total lack of structure - and wondered aloud how to explain it.
Bayern’s only chance of redemption is the Champions League. Former Chelsea head coach Tuchel will hope the break from domestic football focuses minds.
Arsenal’s history at this stage, and against Bayern, is concerning
If Bayern’s players are looking for motivation, then Arsenal’s historic performance might just lift their spirits.
Arteta: We're expecting Bayern at their best
Arsenal haven’t been in the Champions League since 2016/17 and their inexperience could affect the players, who certainly wobbled when it came to the crunch in their first title challenge last season.
Supporters might be on edge, too. Arsenal have only made it past the quarter-finals twice in their history, in 2005/06 and 2008/09, reaching the last eight on four other occasions (2000/01, 2003/04, 2007/08, and 2009/10).
Their record against Bayern is even worse. Arsenal have lost 5-1 in each of their last three matches, most recently getting hammered 10-2 on aggregate in 2016/17, the last time they played Champions League football under Arsene Wenger.
But an awful lot has changed since then, at both clubs.
Kane v Rice is the key duel
Harry Kane’s return to Emirates Stadium is, of course, the headline story, and with good reason.
With a record of 14 goals in 16 Premier League matches for Tottenham Hotspur against Arsenal, Kane is the all-time leading scorer in the north London derby.
And despite Bayern’s problems, he is having a superb season, scoring an incredible 32 Bundesliga goals in 28 matches.
He needs 10 goals in the final six matches to beat Robert Lewandowski’s Bundesliga record of 41 in 2020/21.
Declan Rice has transformed Arsenal and is the de facto leader of the team, anchoring the midfield both on and off the ball.
Given Kane’s propensity to drop deep to create chances, much rests on Rice’s ability to track Kane and win their head-to-head.
Where will the match be won or lost?
Tuchel’s Bayern press hard, but often chaotically, and they have continually had problems controlling midfield, making them vulnerable to counter-attacks.
This should help Arsenal, whose impeccable defensive record is complemented by great speed in their attack.
In fact, Bayern’s more confrontational and attacking approach should encourage Arsenal, who suffered against Porto’s defensive resilience but easily tore through Lens, who came at them at Emirates Stadium but lost 6-0.
Bayern are assertive and proactive, yet consistently clumsy and easy to play through. Arsenal, attacking quickly after winning the ball back, should have too much for the visitors.
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Real Madrid are stronger than this time last year
Last season’s semi-final between Real Madrid and Man City ended in an emphatic 5-1 aggregate win for Premier League club, but the circumstances are rather different a year on.
Then, Carlo Ancelotti was under pressure amid rumours he would not remain at the Spanish side after being knocked out by Pep Guardiola’s City.
Twelve months on and things are a lot more stable at Real. They are eight points clear at the top of LaLiga with eight matches to go and are on a 13-match unbeaten run in all competitions, winning nine and drawing four.
In fact, Real have lost only two out of 42 matches in 2023/24, looking steadier than ever since Ancelotti signed a contract extension in December.
Man City’s track record speaks for itself
None of that means, however, that they are ready to deal with Man City.
Guardiola’s side, going for an unprecedented double Treble this year, fear nothing after finally winning the Champions League for the first time last season.
Man City have made it through the quarter-finals in each of the last three seasons, and have won four of their six meetings with Real under Guardiola.
Their head-to-heads last season are instructive. Man City were cautious at the Bernabeu, rarely risking the attacking numbers needed to capitalise on Real’s flaws, happily taking a 1-1 draw back to Etihad Stadium.
And in Manchester they were outstanding, winning 4-0 in arguably their best 90 minutes of the season. Ancelotti’s side were pinned back and suffocated, suffering wave after wave of attack.
Man City masterclass v Real Madrid
What a night at the Etihad! 🤩
— Manchester City (@ManCity) April 8, 2024
Relive our victory over Real Madrid in last season's #UCL semi-final 👇
Ancelotti, who will become the first manager to take charge of 200 Champions League matches this week, will hope to have learnt from that experience.
Vinicius v Akanji is the duel to keep an eye on
The pace and power of Vinicius Junior terrifies every defence in the world, and Guardiola will be frustrated that Kyle Walker isn’t back in time to match the Real forward in a foot race.
Guardiola gives update on defensive injuries ahead of Madrid
Even if Man City are cautious they could get hit on the break here, should Rico Lewis – who started at right-back in the last two City matches – get the nod.
However, it is more likely that Guardiola will plump for four centre-backs and use Manuel Akanji on the right, as he did in the 0-0 draw with Arsenal.
Nevertheless, with Jude Bellingham drifting over to that side to support Vinicius, Akanji has a very tough night on his hands.
Where will the match be won or lost?
There are question marks over Man City’s recent performances in big matches - and none bigger than the one hanging over Erling Haaland.
Haaland’s goal against Crystal Palace last weekend ended a three-match goalless streak, but his record against stronger teams remains below par. He has scored only one goal in six Premier League appearances this season against the current top five.
Haaland's goal v Palace
.@ErlingHaaland's 30th goal of the season! 💪 pic.twitter.com/MFUwOxR6MI
— Manchester City (@ManCity) April 6, 2024
Real’s tactics under Ancelotti, especially in Europe, have focused on keeping things tight in a 4-4-2 formation that limits space in their own half, happily conceding possession and countering in small numbers.
And so, in what is expected to be a tight and cagey tie at the Bernabeu, Man City need Haaland to be clinical.
How the title race will be affected by the Champions League ties
Man City face Luton Town at home at the weekend while Arsenal host Aston Villa.
On paper, Man City have the easier match sandwiched between their two Champions League ties, but a look back over the season suggests they might struggle.
Arsenal have dropped points only twice after Champions League matches this season, drawing 2-2 at home to Tottenham Hotspur and 0-0 at Man City – hardly bad results.
By contrast Man City have won only two of their eight matches following a Champions League outing, recording six draws and a 1-0 loss at Arsenal.
Arsenal & Man City's results after CL matches 23/24
| Arsenal opponent | Result | Man City opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs (H) | 2-2 | Nott'm Forest (H) | 2-0 |
| Man City (H) | 1-0 | Arsenal (A) | 0-1 |
| Sheff Utd (H) | 5-0 | Man Utd (A) | 3-0 |
| Burnley (H) | 3-1 | Chelsea (A) | 4-4 |
| Wolves (H) | 2-1 | Spurs (H) | 3-3 |
| Brighton (H) | 2-0 | Crystal Palace (H) | 2-2 |
| Newcastle (H) | 4-1 | Chelsea (H) | 1-1 |
| Man City (A) | 0-0 | Liverpool (A) | 1-1 |
From that perspective, the best thing that could happen for Arsenal – and Liverpool – is for Man City to go deep into the competition.
Indeed, having beaten Man City 1-0 at home and drawn 0-0 at the Etihad, Arsenal would fancy their chances against them in the semi-final.
And an all-English contest looks likely. Man City have recent experience dispatching of Real Madrid to draw upon.
Arsenal are a much stronger team than Tuchel’s crisis-stricken Bayern.