Until this season Swansea City had never finished below 12th in the Premier League, but with three matches left to play in 2016/17 they find themselves fighting to preserve their top-flight status.
Ahead of Saturday’s huge match against Everton at the Liberty Stadium, Adrian Clarke analyses the Swans' hopes of staying up.
Swansea’s Special One
If Swansea City successfully avoid relegation they will owe a huge debt of gratitude to Gylfi Sigurdsson.
The 27-year-old has delivered exceptional end-product throughout the season despite his team struggling for large periods.
Scoring nine goals and making 12 assists - second only to Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne - the Icelander has been directly involved in 52.5% of his side’s goals.
Sigurdsson is absolutely invaluable to head coach Paul Clement.
Without his quality inside the final third then Swansea would likely be in a far more serious predicament.
Swansea’s main man has been the best set-piece taker in the division.
Most assists from set-pieces 2016/17
| Player | Set-piece assists |
|---|---|
| Sigurdsson | 7 |
| Payet | 5 |
| Eriksen | 4 |
| Coutinho | 4 |
| Phillips | 4 |
Whether he is whipping shots around or above the wall from direct free-kicks, as he did at Old Trafford last weekend, or producing an inviting cross from a corner or wide dead ball, no other player has delivered the same level of consistency this term.
He boasts seven assists from set-piece situations, but that stat does not tell the full story.
In their 5-4 victory at home to Crystal Palace in November, three of the Swans’ goals originated from a Sigurdsson set-piece without any being registered as an official assist in his name.
The Toffees must avoid giving away free-kicks and corners this weekend.
Sigurdsson is not merely a set-piece expert.
Able to play on either flank or in behind the striker, his versatility has been an asset to Clement since he took charge at the start of 2017, allowing him to adapt his formations to suit each opponent.
Sigurdsson works hard too, covering more ground than any team-mate in three of their last five PL contests.
As shown in the table below, Sigurdsson is Swansea’s chief influencer and a match for other big names across the Premier League.
No-one has scored more goals than him from outside the box this season (four), while he has struck the most shots on target from outside the area (29), and is second only to Romelu Lukaku, of Everton, for total shots on target, with a return of 49.
Sigurdsson's Swansea influence
| Swansea rank | Chances created | Shots on target | Crosses exc. corners |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sigurdsson 78 | Sigurdsson 48 | Sigurdsson 122 |
| 2 | Llorente 25 | Llorente 22 | Routledge 80 |
| 3 | Routledge 25 | Fer 10 | Naughton 72 |
These are fabulous numbers for a player who is not a centre-forward.
He is a gifted player capable of transforming any match he is involved in.
Tightened up by Clement
Results may have fluctuated since he took the helm but Swansea do look more organised under Clement.
A 4-0 defeat at home to Arsenal in January prompted the 44-year-old to dispense with a 4-2-3-1 formation.
🗣 "We know that if we manage to survive this year it will be a remarkable achievement."
— Swansea City AFC (@SwansOfficial) May 4, 2017
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Since then the Swans have operated in a 4-3-3, or in a narrow 4-4-2 diamond, and by bolstering his central midfield it has helped them take control of more matches.
That in turn has protected the back four.
Home form has improved quite markedly, with Swansea conceding far fewer soft goals at the Liberty Stadium.
Concentration has improved, the shape of the side has looked more rigid without the ball and Clement’s players are also working harder for him than they did under previous managers.
While most of the Swans’ passing and shots data under Clement is near identical to the previous regimes, there is a different look to the side and the players are less fearful in possession.
Swansea City at home per match 2016/17
| Guidolin | Bradley | Curtis | Clement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| Points | 0.25 | 1.40 | 0 | 1.86 |
| Shots faced | 19.0 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.6 |
| Goals against | 2.25 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.43 |
| Shots | 12.5 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 12.4 |
| Goals for | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1.43 |
| Distance covered | 111.6 | 110.3 | 113.8 | 113.2 |
By firming up their defensive base, the new head coach has given them confidence to express themselves from the middle third onwards.
The best floating wide man?
Clement’s team selection has been consistent.
The only changes he has made to his first-choice back five of Lukasz Fabianski, Kyle Naughton, Federico Fernandez, Alfie Mawson and Martin Olsson have occurred when the full-backs were injured.
In central midfield the axis of Leroy Fer, Tom Carroll and Jack Cork has been picked in 10 of his 15 matches so far, while the experienced Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente always feature when fit.
This effectively leaves only one floating place on the wing, and the new Swansea head coach is yet to settle on his preference.
Over the last four months he has mainly rotated between Wayne Routledge, Luciano Narsingh and Jordan Ayew.
While all three are quick and tricky on their day, Clement is still waiting for one of them to step up and perform so well that he cannot be left out.
Wingers under Clement
| Routledge | Ayew | Narsingh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Appearances | 7 (3) | 6 (5) | 3 (8) |
| Goals | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Assists | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Chances created | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Successful crosses | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Collectively their output has been uninspiring over the last 15 PL matches, which will be a source of real frustration.
Relying on the big enigma
Leading scorer Llorente is a striker of pedigree who has experienced a mixed campaign.
The Spaniard has produced a respectable 12 goals, including four braces and, in reaching that tally, he has delivered a sprinkling of unplayable performances.
But on other occasions he has looked ponderous and made little impact.
To bring the best out of their FIFA World Cup winner, Swansea City must provide him with higher quality ammunition. The full-backs and wingers, with the exception of Sigurdsson, must raise their standards in the final 270 minutes of the season.
Llorente is capable of getting on the end of crosses better than almost anyone else in the Premier League.
| Most headed efforts on goal | Most headed goals | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Benteke | 42 | Antonio | 7 |
| Llorente | 32 | Llorente | 6 |
| Rondon | 30 | Benteke | 6 |
| Ibrahimovic | 19 | Lukaku | 6 |
He may have lacked consistency in 2016/17, but when the Spaniard missed a key run of matches last month through injury, the Swans missed him badly. They lacked a focal point to their attack, struggling at times to get out of their own half.
The former Juventus striker gives his team-mates an option to hit passes long, holds the ball up, and is destructive when good crosses are sent into the box.
Across these last three matches of the campaign, starting with the encounter with Everton, Llorente will need to be given the service he needs if Swansea are to stay up.
He is capable of making a positive difference.