Fantasy Premier League

Home form highlights Arnautovic potential

By The Scout 8 Feb 2017
Stoke City v Swansea

Looking for an FPL differential for Gameweek 25? Recent numbers show managers should back 0.9%-owned midfielder

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A weekend visit from Crystal Palace affords Marko Arnautovic (£7.1m) a platform to build on recent displays and edge into the thoughts of Fantasy Premier League managers.

Having registered a single goal and a pair of assists in the opening 20 Gameweeks, the Stoke City midfielder has since produced two goals and an assist in his previous four outings.

His improved output has helped to clinch victory at Sunderland and draws with in-form Manchester United and Everton at the bet365 Stadium.

Assessed against his previous displays up to Gameweek 20, Arnautovic's FPL potential has clearly been on the rise over his last four matches.

Arnautovic on the rise

Per-match average GW1-20 GW21-24
Goal attempts  1.8 1.8
Penalty-area attempts  1.1 1.8
Goal attempts on target  0.4 1.2
Chances created 1.4 1.2
ICT Index 5.3 8.2

Although his goal attempts per appearance (1.8) are identical, the Austrian has increased his threat by raiding into the box far more often – he has fired 1.8 efforts inside the opposition penalty area, up from 1.1 beforehand.

With his close-range threat enhanced, Arnautovic has also improved his shot accuracy from 0.4 shots on target per match to 1.2.

Despite a slight downturn in chances created (from 1.4 to 1.2), his average ICT Index tally has jumped from 5.3 to 8.2 from Gameweek 21 onwards. 

Residing in 0.9% of FPL squads, Arnautovic appears to be the key attacking figure in the Stoke City ranks.

He is second only to Peter Crouch (£4.9m) for shots (seven to 10) and efforts in the penalty area (seven to nine) over the last four Gameweeks, yet he leads the 6.0%-owned striker for attempts on target, by five to four.

Indeed, only two FPL midfielders have registered more accurate efforts over that spell - Swansea City's Gylfi Sigurdsson (£7.4m) and Southampton's James Ward-Prowse (£5.0m), with seven and six respectively.

Stoke City v Everton
Only two FPL midfielders can better Marko Arnautovic for shots on target over the past four Gameweeks

Arnautovic also tops the Stoke City ranks for both goal attempts (17) and chances created (18) in home matches, underlining his importance, both as a scorer and a provider of goals at the bet365 Stadium.

Undefeated in front of their own fans in six successive Premier League outings, Mark Hughes will look to his playmaker to steer them to victory against a Crystal Palace side who suffered a 4-0 home defeat to Sunderland last time out.

Having scored eight of his 11 efforts in 2015/16 at home, Arnautovic can torment an Eagles backline that has mustered a single clean sheet on their travels all season, conceding at least twice in six of their previous eight road trips.

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