Football writer Alex Keble analyses Aston Villa's 1-0 win over AFC Bournemouth and the race for Champions League football next season after Manchester City drop points at Southampton.
Give it a fortnight and you’d be hard pushed to find anyone who can remember the details of Aston Villa’s tense 1-0 victory over Bournemouth.
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Even those who were actually present inside the Vitality Stadium might struggle to recall the action. But forgettable will do just nicely for Villa.
This was exactly the sort of gritty, professional away performance that Unai Emery was after: another clean sheet, another three points, and another game ticked off on Villa’s journey towards a second successive season in the UEFA Champions League.
Emery’s side are now guaranteed to finish in the top seven and therefore qualify for one of the European competitions, courtesy of a goal from Ollie Watkins, who became Villa’s all-time leading scorer in the Premier League with 75 goals.
Aston Villa's all-time Premier League top scorers
| Player | Goals |
| Ollie Watkins | 75 |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Agbonlahor | 74 |
| Dwight Yorke | 60 |
| Dion Dublin | 48 |
| Juan Pablo Angel | 44 |
But after winning seven of their last eight Premier League games – and winning more points since the start of March than any other side, with 21 - they are beginning to expect even better than that.
Watkins’ deft flick from a Morgan Rogers cross has put Villa level on points with Chelsea and Newcastle United, who face each other at St James' Park in Sunday's early kick-off (12:00 BST).
They are also now just two points behind Manchester City, whose 0-0 draw with Southampton has dragged Pep Guardiola’s side back into the scrap for a top-five place.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have dropped to 10th and now look outsiders for an eighth-place finish, which could qualify for Europe.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
35 | +33 | 67 |
| 3 |
Man City
MCI
|
36 | +24 | 65 |
| 4 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
35 | +21 | 63 |
| 5 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
35 | +21 | 63 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
36 | +7 | 63 |
| 7 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
35 | +12 | 61 |
| 8 |
Brentford
BRE
|
36 | +10 | 55 |
| 9 |
Brighton
BHA
|
36 | +3 | 55 |
| 10 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
36 | +12 | 53 |
| 11 |
Fulham
FUL
|
36 | +1 | 51 |
Villa victory gives them a huge Champions League chance
It’s hard to overstate the significance of this result for Villa – and for the rest of the Champions League hopefuls, for that matter.
This was arguably Emery’s last big test, given Villa's two remaining matches are against the teams who will meet in the UEFA Europa League final.
They host Tottenham Hotspur five days before the final and then travel to Manchester United just four days after it.
Villa's remaining fixtures
One would assume Europa League distractions mean Villa will be facing half-strength outfits at best.
Two wins from two is to be expected, then, which means Villa only need a few results elsewhere to go in their favour if they are to secure a place in the top five.
The simplest and most likely path would be Chelsea taking points from Newcastle, Newcastle dropping points against Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest dropping points in one of their final three matches.
That could be too many permutations, although even if Villa ultimately fall short, their 1-0 win at Bournemouth means they can finish on 69 points, one more than they managed in 2023/24.
In a season when Villa also juggled a run to the Champions League quarter-finals, there is no doubt that would be considered a successful season.
Just four points separate five UCL hopefuls - and race for eighth is just as tight
Man City's slip-up has made the race for the Champions League even more thrilling.
A surprise 0-0 draw at Southampton, in which Erling Haaland laboured in attack against a Saints low-block that frustrated Guardiola, has suddenly left City with work to do.
They need four points to guarantee finishing above Villa. In other words, defeat at home to Bournemouth four days after the FA Cup final might just see Guardiola’s side crash out of the top five on the final day.
Man City's remaining fixtures
That seemed almost unthinkable just a week ago; a testament to an extraordinary race for the top five in which Man City in third and Forest in seventh are separated by just four points.
Even Arsenal aren’t yet safe. There is danger for six of the top seven and plenty of twists and turns to come, continuing with that head-to-head between Newcastle and Chelsea.
All the more reason, then, for Emery to be delighted with Villa’s professionalism and defensive resolve at Bournemouth.
The battle for eighth is on just as much of a knife-edge after today. Bournemouth are outsiders now, especially with Man City at the Etihad Stadium to come, although Brighton & Hove Albion still have Liverpool at home while Brentford and Fulham play each other next weekend.
Here, too, it’s anybody’s guess.
Emery abandons his usual tactical principles to outflank Iraola
As for the top end, you would back Villa: the in-form team, the team with the simplest remaining fixtures, and, above all, the team with the greatest tactical dexterity.
Emery did a number on Andoni Iraola today.
Bournemouth top the Premier League charts for high turnovers (203) and recoveries (1,938) and their 338 interceptions ranks second.
That’s why Emery abandoned his usual plan to try to play out from the back and dribble through the lines, a tactic he knew would allow Bournemouth to pinch the ball and transition quickly into the final third.
Instead, Villa repeatedly kicked long - via Emiliano Martinez or the centre-backs – bypassing midfield and creating a more physical game: it was entirely deliberate that Villa held 34 per cent possession, their joint-lowest share of the season.
Key: Green - successful, Red - unsuccessful
This also meant that Bournemouth’s ultra-stretched shape (a product of their high press) was caught out by those long balls, with Rogers and Jacob Ramsey – coming in from the wings – creating a five-on-two in Villa's favour in that wide-open central midfield space.
And to add insult to injury, Villa’s winner was beating Bournemouth at their own game: Matty Cash won the ball high and within five seconds, Rogers had crossed for Watkins to score.
It was a tactical masterclass and a sign Emery is willing to be flexible to breaking point, discarding his core principles to negate a rival.
That’s why, after today’s result, you’d back Villa’s head coach to find a way past Spurs and Man Utd – and continue the Champions League adventure at Villa Park.
