Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Newcastle rise to the occasion in their most winnable remaining game?
- Will rejuvenated Brentford cause Amorim to break a 10-year record?
- Will Salah break yet another record?
- Is this a good time for Europe-chasing Bournemouth to face Arsenal?
- Can Leicester or Southampton avoid unwanted records?
- Will Everton claw back some positive vibes before the summer?
- How do Spurs and West Ham give their seasons a late lift?
- Can Forest recover for their most important game of the season?
Can Newcastle rise to the occasion in their most winnable remaining game?
Newcastle United’s 3-0 win against Ipswich Town last weekend was much needed, but a home match against one of the promoted clubs is hardly a test.
Only this weekend will we find out whether Eddie Howe’s side have recovered fully from their recent 4-1 defeat to Villa.
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A quirk of the fixture computer means that since 4 January, Newcastle’s only away Premier League wins have been against Leicester City, West Ham United, and Southampton. Again, not particularly convincing evidence of where they’re at.
There’s certainly enough there to worry Newcastle supporters ahead of this weekend's visit to Brighton & Hove Albion because, with Chelsea and Arsenal to come, this is the most winnable game Howe’s side have until the final day.
And Brighton have already beaten Newcastle twice this season, winning 1-0 in the reverse Premier League fixture and 2-1 in the FA Cup fifth round, both at St James' Park.
The same result would be a serious dent to the Magpies' Champions League hopes and pile pressure onto the showdown with Chelsea the following weekend.
They are in a position of strength right now. But that could change very quickly. Newcastle’s trip to Brighton is their most important game of the season, at least until the next one.
Will rejuvenated Brentford cause Amorim to break a 10-year record?
The bad news for Ruben Amorim, as he rotates his team to pay full attention to the Europa League, is that three of Man Utd's four remaining opponents are fighting hard for European qualification.
The first of these is made considerably harder by Brentford’s 4-2 victory over Brighton, which ended a run of eight home Premier League matches without a win.
Thomas Frank’s side can breathe a sigh of relief now that sequence is over – and can face a desperately struggling team with confidence, especially after also winning 2-0 at Forest on Thursday night.
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Man Utd are winless in their last five Premier League matches. One more and Amorim will break a 10-year record, because not since December 2015, under Louis van Gaal, have United gone six without a win.
So, this really isn’t good timing for their trip to the Gtech Community Stadium.
Brentford have won five of their last seven Premier League matches against teams below them in the table. In fact, Frank’s side have been flat-track bullies all season: 12 of their 13 league wins have come against clubs currently positioned 10th or lower in the table.
And these days, of course, Man Utd are one of those clubs notably weaker than Brentford.
Throughout the season we’ve had all kinds of damning statistics that highlight Man Utd’s struggles, but this one from Opta might top the lot. If only results between the not-relegated 17 clubs counted, Man Utd would be 17th with just 23 points in 28 games. That’s 0.85 points per game, or 32.4 points over a 38-game season.
We only need to go back to 2022/23, the last time we didn’t have all three promoted clubs go back down with a poor points tally, to find a year when it required 35 points to stay up.
In other words, Man Utd are lucky the competition has been so poor this season.
Will Salah break yet another record?
How big were Liverpool’s celebrations this week? That’s the question Chelsea fans will want to know, because this is either the best time to face Liverpool - or the worst.
Either the champions will take the foot off the gas and the Blues can benefit from a half-pace performance, or Arne Slot’s side will be playing with the freedom and confidence that comes from basking in the glow of the Premier League crown.
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If it’s the former, Chelsea can take a major step forward in the race for a top-five finish, continuing a run of form that has seen them pick up 17 points from their last eight Premier League matches, a huge increase on the nine points from the 19 that preceded it.
And yet, with Cole Palmer still not in form, it feels more likely that Liverpool will put on a show.
Mohamed Salah’s goal last weekend was his first non-penalty goal in seven Premier League matches, and it might just reopen the floodgates.
He only needs two more goals or assists to set a new Premier League record of 48 goal involvements in a single season.
Salah might just do it at Stamford Bridge, the home of the club that let him go.
Is this a good time for Europe-chasing Bournemouth to face Arsenal?
AFC Bournemouth have won just one of their last nine matches in all competitions, a run that threatens to derail their hopes not only of European football but a top-ten finish altogether.
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And yet a trip to Arsenal isn’t necessarily as daunting as it looks, given the Gunners' focus is on the second leg of their Champions League semi-final in Paris.
Arsenal drew 1-1 with Brentford in between the two legs of their Champions League quarter-final with Real Madrid and drew 1-1 with Man Utd between their last-16 games against PSV Eindhoven.
Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Mikel Merino, and Jurrien Timber were all rested for the Brentford draw.
Bournemouth will be playing a half-strength team on Saturday.
This is a rare chance for Andoni Iraola to claim a major scalp.
Can Leicester or Southampton avoid unwanted records?
That there is nothing riding on this game might make it a surprisingly fun watch. With their leaky defences, and attacks freed from pressure, the two relegated sides may replicate the five-goal thriller we saw when Leicester won the reverse fixture 3-2 back in October.
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More significantly, there are records to be avoided.
Southampton remain on 11 points, the joint-lowest in Premier League history, and they are running out of time to leave Derby County alone with that record; Man City, Everton, and Arsenal won’t give much away.
Meanwhile, Leicester have lost their last nine home Premier League matches without scoring a goal. Only once in Football League history – that’s all four tiers, and going back to the 19th century – has a team failed to score in ten home matches in a row; Wolves did just that back in 1984/85.
Fortunately for Ruud van Nistelrooy, Leicester's last two home games are against Southampton and Ipswich, giving them a good chance to end the drought.
Will Everton claw back some positive vibes before the summer?
This is a dead rubber, it cannot be denied, and yet Everton supporters are still in the process of a long goodbye to Goodison Park and would love to go out on a high.
With Southampton to face in their final home match, the pressure is hardly on here, although David Moyes will want to head into the summer with the feel-good vibe intact.
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He won four of his first six Premier League matches in charge this season, but has since won just one of the last nine.
That record threatens to lower hopes and expectations ahead of a summer rebuild and the opening of their new stadium.
Ipswich and Saints at home is an opportunity to put this poor spell behind them – and make sure Goodison Park gets the right farewell.
How do Spurs and West Ham give their seasons a late lift?
In ordinary circumstances this would be a game with nothing riding on it, but unfortunately Graham Potter does not have that luxury.
He needs to start getting results soon, and facing Spurs between their two Europa League games against Bodo/Glimt offers West Ham the perfect chance to finally get a first win in eight matches.
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Meanwhile, Spurs, though distracted, will hope to avoid setting a new club Premier League record of 20 defeats in a single season.
Perhaps of greater significance is avoiding the ignominy of finishing 17th, where West Ham currently sit with just one point fewer than Spurs.
It’s a six-pointer of sorts. Just not one fans of either club would have anticipated back in August.
Can Forest recover for their most important game of the season?
Thursday's 2-0 defeat at home to Brentford has piled the pressure on Forest for Monday night’s game at Crystal Palace.
Anything less than a victory and Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will struggle to qualify for next season’s Champions League.
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Nuno must work on the assumption that Villa will win all of their remaining matches, and Chelsea their next three before facing Forest on the final day.
The simple maths means any dropped points at Palace would leave Forest needing victories in their last three games. And at this juncture, that doesn’t look likely.
Forest have lost three of their last four Premier League matches, as many defeats as they had in their previous 16, and have lost four of their last five in all competitions.
More worrying still, since their return to the top flight in 2022/23, Forest have won only one of their 16 matches when holding 51 per cent or more possession.
They held 55 per cent on Thursday, and will likely be gifted the ball by Palace, as well as by Leicester at home the following weekend.
Having been in the Champions League places for so much of the season, Forest are chasing one all of a sudden. Their trip to Selhurst Park is a stern test of their mettle – and a make-or-break moment.
