Premier League weekend preview: What to look out for

Alex Keble analyses where the weekend's matches could be won and lost, including:
- Can Hojlund have another happy home debut?
- Guardiola v Moyes tactical battle
- Perfect time for Jesus return?
- Newcastle's challenging encounter with Brentford
- Klopp's need for a fast start against Wolves
- Why Fulham must start winning matches now

Should Manchester United lose to Brighton & Hove Albion this weekend they will have been defeated three times in the opening five league matches of a campaign for the first time since 1989/90. Erik ten Hag could do with an ace. Luckily he might just have one.

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Rasmus Hojlund was sharp in the 3-1 defeat to Arsenal before the international break, causing Arsenal's defence problems and helping to set up counter-attacks with his strength holding up the ball. His backheel in the build-up to Alejandro Garnacho’s offside goal was – almost – a headline-making moment on his debut.

Man Utd fans are desperate to see Hojlund start Saturday’s match against Brighton, whose own aggressive high line is likely to create more counter-attacking opportunities of the sort that could release Hojlund in behind.

Brighton's 49 high turnovers and 13 shot-ending high turnovers are the most in the Premier League this season, while they also have recorded the league’s lowest average for Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) with 8.7.

Roberto De Zerbi’s commitment to pushing high and taking the match to the opposition theoretically makes them vulnerable to the fast runners in United's attack.

Ten Hag may feel that his new striker, who only appeared off the bench for Denmark during the break, is still not ready to start, but even as a substitute Hojlund could have a dramatic impact on his home debut.

He marked his home debut for Atalanta last season with two goals in a 2-1 win against RB Salzburg. Going back further, Hojlund scored within six minutes of his home debut for Sturm Graz, having also netted a brace on his full debut at WSG Tirol eight days earlier.

Hojlund is a fast starter, and potentially the perfect striker to take on De Zerbi’s team. But a note of caution to expectant United fans - Brighton have won each of their last three league matches against Man Utd.

Last three meetings

Moyes’s tactics might stifle Guardiola

Manchester City’s 100 per cent winning start hasn’t been quite as smooth as it looks. Sheffield United ran them close with a defensive, backs-to-the-wall approach, while Fulham stood firm for 45 minutes until Erling Haaland hit a second-half hat-trick.

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In both those matches Man City looked a little sluggish off the mark, struggling to find creative fluency without Kevin De Bruyne and leaving Haaland isolated without the supportive goalscoring threat of Ilkay Gundogan. Could it be that Man City are a more ponderous side this season, and therefore more vulnerable to the low block?

West Ham United will provide us with our answer. Their 3-1 wins over Brighton and Chelsea were classic David Moyes: 22 per cent and 24 per cent possession respectively, with every man behind the ball and goals scored via long balls played into the channels for Michail Antonio.

They refused to press Brighton at all and therefore stumped them, while Chelsea were similarly kept at arm’s length before James Ward-Prowse’s set-piece delivery did the rest. Man City will need to move the ball quickly if they are to avoid a similar fate.

Ward-Prowse's assist for Aguerd v Chelsea

Pep Guardiola’s team are a big step up, mind. They are undefeated in their last 15 Premier League matches against West Ham since losing 2-1 in September 2015, and Moyes’s similar approach in 2022/23 resulted in 2-0 and 3-0 wins for Man City.

In one of those, the 3-0 victory at the Etihad, Man City were without De Bruyne. Guardiola’s side remain clear favourites, but if they are sluggish out of the blocks West Ham could cause a shock – and leapfrog them in the table.

Jesus return timely for Everton challenge

Everton finally won a point – and scored some goals – in their last match before the international break but nevertheless remain in a perilous position.

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A win over Arsenal might sound far-fetched, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that Sean Dyche masterminded a 1-0 victory against Mikel Arteta’s side on his debut back in February.

In fact, Everton have won four of their last five home league matches against Arsenal, drawing the other, while victory on Sunday would make it four in a row for the first time since March 1913.

See: Can Branthwaite maintain his early impact by tackling Arsenal?

Gabriel Jesus’s return from injury comes at a good time for Arsenal, then. They were without the Brazilian in that 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park last season, when Arsenal mustered only three shots on target, but they are in much better form now.

More significantly, Jesus – who scored off the bench against Man Utd a fortnight ago - has scored eight goals in nine Premier League appearances against Everton at an average of a goal every 71 minutes, which is the best rate of any player to play more than 500 minutes against Everton.

The stage is set for Jesus to remind Arsenal of what they’ve been missing.

Howe badly needs a win

A difficult beginning to 2023/24 largely explains Newcastle United’s tough start - they won four points from the corresponding fixtures last year, compared with three this time.

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Nevertheless pressure is slowly building on Eddie Howe. Newcastle haven’t lost four in a row since January 2021 under Steve Bruce, and defeat this weekend would take them to two-thirds of their entire total of six in 2022/23.

Their main problem is conceding goals, having kept only two clean sheets in the 22 league matches since their run of six consecutive clean sheets between November 2022 and January 2023.

See: What's wrong at Newcastle and how to fix it

That isn’t the best place to be ahead of the visit of Brentford, averaging two goals per match this season thanks to the brilliant form of Bryan Mbeumo, who has seven goals in his last seven matches – as many as in his previous 55 in the competition.

His performances have inspired a newfound resilience in Thomas Frank’s side, who have only lost once in their last 11 league matches.

It should be a tight encounter with few clear chances, especially given Brentford’s tendency to sit deep and Newcastle’s desire to play in the transition. Howe won’t necessarily enjoy holding so much possession, and following some question marks raised over the configuration of his midfield, Brentford’s bullish approach is a potential banana skin.

Klopp needs a fast start at Wolves

Within 12 minutes of Liverpool’s last match at Wolverhampton Wanderers they were 2-0 down – and went on to lose 3-0. That isn’t the only reason why Jurgen Klopp will be looking to make a fast start to their rematch this weekend.

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Liverpool didn’t win any of their six Saturday 12:30 kick-offs in 2022/23 and scored only three goals, reflecting a sleepiness that seemed to creep into their play at various points throughout the campaign. Indeed, Joel Matip put the ball in his own net after only five minutes in that big defeat at Molineux.

Already this season Liverpool have taken the lead and fallen behind in the third minute against Aston Villa and AFC Bournemouth respectively, and with goals tending to fly in at both ends, the prospect of an early away kick-off might worry supporters a little.

Szoboszlai's early goal v Villa

What’s more, Wolves are likely to struggle if they concede early. Brighton scored within 15 minutes at Molineux earlier this season and cruised to a 4-1 win, belying predictions that Wolves could counter-attack menacingly as they had in an unlucky 1-0 defeat to Man Utd.

There is a chance that the direct dribbling of Matheus Cunha and Pedro Neto will break Liverpool’s high line, and a sense of vulnerability that still lingers over the Liverpool system.

See: Who's run fastest and furthest this season

But that chance vanishes should Liverpool score early - Wolves have won only two of the last 37 Premier League matches in which they have conceded (D8 L27).

The return of Liverpool’s organised high press, which was immaculate against Villa before the international break, offers hope they will be alert for the lunchtime kick-off. They have attempted the second-most presses with 151 in the league after four matches, more than double their 69 at this stage last season.

If Liverpool carry that energy forward, they should be able to race into an early lead and claim another three points.

Fulham must seize chance to kickstart season

We are only four matches into the new season but Fulham’s position is beginning to look a little precarious.

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That opening-day 1-0 win at Everton was a red herring and gives Fulham a somewhat false position in the table. Everton accrued an Expected Goals (xG) total of 2.7 and had nine shots on target to Fulham’s nine, leading to Bernd Leno winning a club-record 91.7 per cent of the fans’ vote for Fulham’s Man of the Match.

Since then, things have got progressively worse. Fulham have the highest figure for Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the division with 12.1, and their 10 goals conceded are the second-most behind Burnley. Their xG of 3.9 is also the fourth-lowest in the league, with only the three promoted clubs performing worse.

In fact, Fulham have won only two of their last eight home league matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in a single one of them, conceding 16 goals at a rate of two per match.

Clearly Marco Silva needs a win – and based on Luton Town’s difficult start to their debut Premier League campaign, a home match against Rob Edwards’ side is an opportunity Fulham cannot afford to miss.