Fantasy Premier League

Uncertainty unsettles Aguero owners

By The Scout 25 Oct 2016
Manchester City v Everton - Premier League

FPL managers might be selling but The Scout says Man City striker's fixtures and stats suggest patience is a virtue

Related Articles
Aguero and De Bruyne nominated for Ballon D'Or External Link
Iheanacho earns City point against Saints External Link
Guardiola: We are together External Link

When Pep Guardiola opted to bench Sergio Aguero (£13.1m) at home to Everton in Gameweek 8 and then again in Barcelona four days later, it rang alarm bells for Fantasy Premier League managers.

The doubts were only increased by the striker's second half penalty miss against the Merseysiders, amplified further by just a single-point return in Sunday's 1-1 draw with Southampton.

Some have already seen enough.

At the time of writing, 37,458 have decided to usher Aguero out of their squads - only four players have suffered more sales ahead of Gameweek 10.

Given his hefty price tag, there is clear justification for looking dimly on Aguero's recent decline.

Manchester City v Everton
Sergio Aguero is owned by 43% of FPL managers but that ownership is currently in decline

Three points in as many Gameweeks represents poor value at a time when a raft of midfield talent appears to be taking turns to provide double-figure hauls.

As a result, faith in Aguero as a captain is also on the wane, undermining his value further.

Man City's current form cannot be dismissed as factor behind the recent decline.

From Gameweeks 7 to 9, Pep Guardiola's attack registered 15 goal attempts per match, down from 17.6 efforts over Gameweeks 1 to 6.

Big chances - gilt-edged goal scoring opportunities – have also dropped to 1.6 per match across the last three matches, compared with an average of three beforehand.

But Aguero’s own underlying statistics are not yet a cause for concern.

Despite failing to find the net, he has fired in a goal attempt every 17.9 minutes over the last three appearances, an improvement on a rate of 18.3 minutes over his first four starts, which harvested five goals.

Significantly, in both cases, that beats Aguero's rate last season. He was firing in an effort every 19.8 minutes in the 2015/16 campaign, on his way to scoring 24 goals and 184 FPL points.

Hull City v Chelsea - Premier League
Diego Costa offers an in-form alternative, freeing up funds to be distributed elsewhere

City's forthcoming run of fixtures also promotes patience.

Guardiola's men are away from home in three of the next four Gameweeks, at West Bromwich Albion, Crystal Palace and Burnley; an Etihad Stadium meeting with Middlesbrough arrives in Gameweek 11.

It is reasonable to expect Man City to recover their early-season goal threat over those match-ups.

Guardiola's intentions regarding Aguero's pitch time are a concern but second guessing the City manager seems a thankless task.

Aguero's change in form

  GW1-6 GW7-9 2014/15 2015/16
Mins per goal attempt 18.3 17.9 15.8 19.8
Goals/match 1.25 0 0.79 0.8
FPL points/match 9.25 1 6.55 6.13

Assess the fixtures and his individual statistics and it seems likely that Aguero will regain his scoring touch.

With Manchester United's Zlatan Ibrahimovic (£11.3m) providing just a single assist in his last five Gameweeks and Tottenham Hotspur's Harry Kane (£10.7m) sidelined, the likely replacements are found lower down the price brackets.

Signing either Diego Costa (£10.3m) or Romelu Lukaku (£9.7m) would free up funds to be spent around the squad. But that would make it all the more difficult to switch allegiance back to Aguero should he return to form.

That concern may just help slow his slide in ownership long enough to give Aguero opportunity to restore the faith of FPL managers.

Latest Videos

More Videos