Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 23?

Erling Haaland (£14.0m) and Kevin De Bruyne (£10.7m) are likely to again dominate managers’ armband decisions in Gameweek 23 of Fantasy Premier League.

The Manchester City pair were the top two captain picks in Gameweek 22, handed the armband by 3.1million and 1.6m respectively.

Haaland marked the end of a five-match absence with an appearance off the bench against Burnley on Wednesday evening.

As their Gameweek 23 encounter at Brentford takes place five days later on Monday night, there is a strong prospect that Haaland could join De Bruyne in Pep Guardiola’s starting line-up at the Gtech Community Stadium. 

Ominously for the Bees, Haaland has scored a league-high eight goals in only eight away appearances this season.

De Bruyne, meanwhile, has immediately looked back to his best, scoring once and supplying two assists in just over 90 minutes of action in the last two Gameweeks. His total of 19 points in that period was bettered by only three other players in Fantasy.

Who are the most in-form players in Fantasy?

Midfield trio Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Michael Olise (£5.9m) and Cole Palmer (£5.8m) are the most in-form alternatives to the Man City big-hitters.

All three have averaged at least 10.0 points per match in the last four Gameweeks, with Liverpool's Jota claiming a league-high seven attacking returns in that time thanks to four goals and three assists.

The high rankings of Crystal Palace’s Olise and Chelsea’s Palmer are all the more impressive given that both players only featured in three matches.

Man City’s Julian Alvarez (£6.9m) has also impressed with four goals and 30 points across his last four outings. The return of De Bruyne has immediately helped lift the Argentinian’s output, with his 13-point return against Burnley his first double-figure haul since Gameweek 4. 

Players' form, GW19-22

Alvarez leads his rivals across a host of underlying statistics in the last four Gameweeks.

The Man City star ranks top for shots, shots in the box, big chances and key passes, highlighting why he has blanked only once in this period.

Nonetheless, it’s Olise who is the standout figure in terms of frequency, with his 15.2 minutes per shot and 41 minutes per key pass the quickest of all four.

However, it is fair to say that Jota has significantly overperformed. He has four goals from only six shots in those last four matches, while his three assists have come from four key passes. 

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What about the home and away form?

By assessing the home/away statistics and involving Haaland in the analysis, it’s easy to see why he’s been so successful on his travels.

In away matches, his total of 21 big chances is more than twice any other player in Fantasy this season. 

Haaland has converted 24.2 per cent of his shots in such contests, compared with the mere 5.6 per cent of team-mate Alvarez.

Palmer’s big chance involvement is the most encouraging of the other contenders.

He ranks second only to Haaland here with a total of 11 in his eight appearances at Stamford Bridge, while a 20 per cent goal conversion rate looks sustainable, particularly with penalty duties.

The numbers again dent Jota’s prospects, with just two big chance involvements in 400 minutes on the road.

Home/away stats compared in 23/24

Assessing the opponents’ defences

Analysing each player’s opponents can help identify any weaknesses to target.

Remarkably, all four opposing sides in the assessment have each allowed 35 shots in the box in the last four Gameweeks.

Brentford have conceded 12 goals, double the total of any rival here, which only adds to the appeal of Man City’s stars. 

Nonetheless, both Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers have been on a par with the Bees for conceding big chances, lifting the prospects of Olise and Palmer respectively.

The team data once again rules out Jota, with his hosts Arsenal conceding only five big chances in their previous four.

Opponents’ defending, GW19-22

The home/away data looks encouraging for Palmer’s 38 per cent ownership, with his visitors Wolves the worst off in the analysis for conceding both shots in the box and big chances.

While Brentford’s statistics add further weight to the idea of captaining a Man City player, there’s been little to separate the Bees and Brighton for conceding shots in the box and big chances at home. That suggests that Olise, who is expected to overcome a knock, could be worth the risk as a huge differential.

Opponents’ home/away defending in 23/24

So, who is the best captain?

It’s difficult to look beyond Man City, with the return of De Bruyne handing managers a very strong armband option.

Nonetheless, it may ultimately come down to which forward starts alongside the Belgian against Brentford and, judging by the statistics, their tactics in away matches are all about feeding Haaland with gilt-edged scoring opportunities.

If the Norwegian starts, his huge number of big chances, combined with his goal conversion rate to that of Alvarez, gives him the greatest upside of their attackers.

Palmer’s big chance involvement in home matches, in addition to Wolves’ woeful away defending, indicates he is the top alternative. 

Indeed, there’s even an argument for captaining the Chelsea star over his Man City rivals, given that he more likely to play 90 minutes. 

Also in this series

Part 1: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 23 Ones to watch
Part 2: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 23 Differentials
Part 3: Scout Selection: Best FPL team for Gameweek 23
Part 5: FPL experts: Is time to bring Haaland back in?