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Festive duels can shape relegation battle

17 Dec 2022
EVE_SOU_WHU_FESTIVE_RELEGATION

We look at the crucial fixtures and head-to-heads for the bottom six teams

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With only five points separating bottom side Wolverhampton Wanderers from 15th-placed Leeds United, the picture at the foot of the table is set for many more twists and turns.

Clubs will play three times over the festive period and each of the bottom six sides have a head-to-head with a relegation rival.

The relegation fight

Position Pos Club Played Pl GD Points Pts
15 Bournemouth BOU 38 -34 39
16 Nottingham Forest NFO 38 -30 38
17 Everton EVE 38 -23 36
18 Leicester City LEI 38 -17 34
19 Leeds United LEE 38 -30 31
20 Southampton SOU 38 -37 25
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A fast start is crucial for Wolverhampton Wanderers' new head coach Julen Lopetegui, given his side visit fellow strugglers Everton first up on Boxing Day and face another bottom-half side in Aston Villa, either side of hosting Manchester United.

Nathan Jones took charge of Southampton's final match before the break for the FIFA World Cup 2022, a 3-1 defeat at Liverpool.

Saints have won only one of their last 10 matches, but they look best-placed to put a run of results together.

Southampton are the only side in the bottom six to not face any of the top six over the festive period, and their home match against Nottingham Forest on 4 January is a particularly good opportunity to pick up points.

Festive fixtures for bottom six clubs
Club MW17 MW18 MW19
LEE MCI (H) NEW (A) WHU (H)
WHU ARS (A) BRE (H) LEE (A)
EVE WOL (H) MCI (A) BHA (H)
NFO MUN (A) CHE (H) SOU (A)
SOU BHA (H) FUL (A) NFO (H)
WOL EVE (A) MUN (H) AVL (A)

A return of nine points from seven matches since Steve Cooper signed a new contract has given Nottingham Forest renewed hope that they can extend their stay in the Premier League. But their festive schedule is among the trickiest.

A trip to Man Utd on 27 December is followed by a home match against Chelsea and then their crucial duel with Southampton.

Everton left it late to earn Premier League safety last season, but home fixtures versus Wolves and Brighton & Hove Albion give the Toffees opportunities to put some distance between themselves and the bottom three.

Three straight defeats before the World Cup have left West Ham United just one point above the relegation zone and they face the tough task of visiting leaders Arsenal in their first match back following the World Cup.

Leeds' schedule appears just as challenging, hosting champions Manchester City on 28 December before a trip to high-flying Newcastle United.

Leeds and West Ham then meet in a six-pointer at Elland Road on 4 January.

Battling the weight of history

History shows that teams lying in the bottom three at Christmas are more likely than not to be relegated.

In total, 53 of the 91 sides who have been in the relegation zone on 25 December have gone down, or 58 per cent.

However, there have been great recoveries and Man City's 2008/09 team ended up 10th, the highest finish for a team in the relegation zone at Christmas.

Equally, clubs sitting higher up the table can quickly be dragged into trouble.

Norwich City sat seventh at Christmas in 1994/95 and Blackpool were 10th in 2010/11, yet both teams were relegated - the biggest falls after 25 December for a team who went down.

Next: Kane targets records for Boxing Day and festive period

Also in this series

Part 1: Does being Christmas No 1 lead to the title?
Part 2: Man City hunting Man Utd's record for best festive form
Part 3: How much does your club enjoy Christmas?
Part 4: Promoted clubs target rare hat-trick in bid to stay up
Part 6: Kane targets goal records for Boxing Day and festive period
Part 7: League leaders set for tough festive schedule

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