Fantasy Premier League

What to do with Arsenal stars in FPL ahead of tough fixtures?

By The Scout 21 Aug 2024
Saka, Havertz

The Scout assesses Saka and Havertz's underlying numbers and whether they can deliver over tricky run

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The Gameweek 1 displays of Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) and Kai Havertz (£8.0m) suggest they have the form to overcome Arsenal’s tricky upcoming run of opponents in Fantasy Premier League, and be good picks for managers who are starting in Gameweek 2 and are currently picking their squad.

The pair delivered a goal and an assist apiece in a 2-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers to each collect 12 points in Fantasy.

They are both among the five most transferred-in players ahead of the Gameweek 2 deadline on Saturday 24 August at 11:00 BST.

See: Most-bought and most-sold players for Gameweek 2

But Mikel Arteta’s side are now set to embark upon a schedule that is ranked the second-worst in the league over the next four Gameweeks.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), three of Arsenal’s next four matches score at least four.

A home meeting with Brighton & Hove Albion in Gameweek 3 is the one crumb of comfort on the horizon, sandwiched in between visits to Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur before a daunting trip to Manchester City in Gameweek 5.

Arsenal's next four matches
GW Opp. FDR
2 Aston Villa (A) 4
3 Brighton (H) 2
4 Spurs (A) 4
5 Man City (A) 5

One look at the underlying statistics, though, shows it's anything but gloom and doom for Saka and Havertz backers in Fantasy.

Saka created five chances against Wolves on Saturday, as well as having four shots inside the box. 

That contribution is even more impressive when assessed against his statistics from 2023/24. On just one occasion – in Gameweek 36 at home to AFC Bournemouth – did Saka turn in a superior all-round performance, with five chances created and five shots in the box. 

Saka's goal v Wolves

Meanwhile, Havertz’s five shots inside the box was bettered only once in 2023/24 – and that was in Gameweek 38, when he had nine such efforts at home to Everton.

Further analysis of the German’s displays for shots in the box since joining the Gunners last summer helps to illustrate his growing influence on their attack. 

Of Havertz’s six most threatening performances in terms of shots in the box, FOUR have come in his last seven matches. Those also include Double Gameweek 34 encounters with Chelsea and Wolves. 

Havertz's goal v Wolves
Havertz's best Arsenal matches for shots in box
Season GW Opp. Shots in box
2023/24 38 Everton (H) 9
2024/25 1 Wolves (H) 5
2023/24 34 Chelsea (H) 4
2023/24 34 Wolves (A) 4
2023/24 17 Brighton (H) 4
2023/24 15 Luton (A) 4

Havertz’s output since being moved up front after Arsenal’s winter break in the previous campaign shows he offers far more than just a major goal threat, though.

He has scored 10 goals and also supplied 10 assists from Gameweek 21 last season onwards, with his total of 20 goal involvements second only to the 22 of Cole Palmer (£10.5m).

Saka’s combined tally of 17, meanwhile, earns him joint-third spot alongside Erling Haaland (£15.0m), Alexander Isak (£8.5m), Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m).

Top players for goal involvement, from GW21 in 23/24
Player G A G&A
Palmer 14 8 22
Havertz 10 10 20
Haaland 14 3 17
Mateta 14 3 17
Isak 12 5 17
Saka 11 6 17
Watkins 10 7 17
Corresponding matches from last season offer hope

When looking at Arsenal's tricky fixtures ahead, assessing how Saka and Havertz performed in the same matches last season can help to assess how they might get on this time.

There’s no surprise to learn they blanked in their trip to Man City. But their output in the three other fixtures - against Villa, Brighton and Spurs - certainly strengthens the argument for a Saka and Havertz double-up.

They combined for a total of 40 points across that trio of encounters, which is all the more encouraging given that the Villa and Brighton matches took place BEFORE Havertz moved up front. 

Saka and Havertz's output in corresponding 23/24 matches
Match Saka Havertz
Aston Villa (A) 2 pts 2 pts
Brighton (H) 3 pts 8 pts
Spurs (A) 12 pts 13 pts
Man City (A) 3 pts 3 pts

Although a double-up is not advised at Man City in Gameweek 5, there's no doubt that the rush will be on to buy Arsenal attackers immediately afterwards. Back-to-back home encounters with promoted pair Leicester City and Southampton in Gameweeks 6-7 hand Saka and Havertz the chance to rack up more huge hauls in Fantasy. 

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