Fantasy Premier League

Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 33?

By The Scout 10 Apr 2024
Cole Palmer-Erling Haaland-Mohamed Salah

The Scout delves into the data to compare the top contenders

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Cole Palmer's (£6.1m) exceptional run of form makes him a big contender for the captaincy in Gameweek 33 of Fantasy Premier League.

The Chelsea midfielder faces Everton on the back of a league-high 53 points over his last four matches, scoring six goals and supplying two assists. Palmer has collected a further nine bonus points, producing double-figure hauls in all three of his home appearances in that spell.

Newcastle United's Alexander Isak (£7.9m) has amassed 31 points in his last four outings, joint-top among forwards in Fantasy.

This weekend he is at home against a Tottenham Hotspur side who have conceded 12 goals in their last six away matches, keeping a single clean sheet. 

Liverpool star Mohamed Salah (£13.4m) and Manchester City's Erling Haaland (£14.3m) also have kind home matches, facing Crystal Palace and Luton Town respectively.

But neither player has been at their best recently, scoring two goals each across their last four league matches.

Player form, last four matches
Player Pts G A Bonus
Palmer 53 6 2 9
Isak 31 4 1 5
Haaland 18 2 0 2
Salah 17 2 0 1
Who's had the biggest attacking threat?

Salah and Palmer are well clear of their two rivals for goal threat across their last four matches.

Salah has had 24 shots - the same as the combined total of Isak and Haaland - while his 17 shots in the box and 10 shots on target both put him among the top two players in Fantasy. 

But the Egyptian's finishing has been poor lately - he has scored with a mere 8.3 per cent of his shots. 

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Palmer's all-round influence is easily the best on display here. His 23 shots and 18 key passes each put him among the top two players in Fantasy. His 14 shots in the box also exceed the 10 of both Isak and Haaland.

When it comes to big-chance involvement, though, the quartet are near-impossible to separate. Salah, Palmer and Haaland are all tied on seven apiece, with Isak just behind on six. 

Player attacking threat, last four matches
Player Shots Shots in box Big chances Goal conversion Key passes Big chances created
Salah 24 17 5 8.3% 6 2
Palmer 23 14 4 26.1% 18 3
Isak 13 10 5 30.8% 6 1
Haaland 11 10 6 18.2% 4 1

*Rotate your mobile device to see the full table

How do they compare for home form?

All four players have a home fixture in Gameweek 33, and Salah's all-round influence on the Liverpool attack when playing at Anfield gives him the edge over his rivals here.

In home matches this season, Salah and Isak have each had 19 big chances, joint-top among all players. However, the Egyptian has created a further 11 big chances for his team-mates, which means he has been involved in a big chance every 35.8 minutes when playing at home, the best in the analysis.

Palmer's potential for goals and assists is also very much in evidence here, with 12 big chances and seven big chances created at home across the season. He has been involved in a big chance every 45.9 minutes at Stamford Bridge.

Somewhat surprisingly, Haaland's frequency for big-chance involvement is the worst of the four here. And although his 21.2 minutes per shot in the box is the quickest average of the quartet, he has let himself down with a goal conversion rate of 18.5 per cent. 

Stats compared in home matches 23/24
Player Big chances Big chances created Mins/big chance involvement Mins/shot in box Goal conversion
Salah 19 11 35.8 24.0 20.3%
Isak 19 2 40.3 27.5 28.6%
Palmer 12 7 45.9 33.3 24.4%
Haaland 16 2 58.6 21.2 18.5%

*Rotate your mobile device to see the full table

How do their opponents compare?

There's little between all four opposition sides when it comes to defensive form across their respective last four matches.

Luton's numbers are slightly poorer than their rivals. They rank joint-worst for shots conceded in the box, along with Everton, and joint-worst for conceding big chances, along with Crystal Palace.

Palace have let in seven goals, which also puts them bottom in the assessment. 

It's fair to say, though, that all four have failed to impress, with just a single clean sheet between them in this period, courtesy of Everton's 1-0 home win over Burnley last weekend.

Opponents' defensive form, last four matches
Team  Goals conc. Shots in box conc. Big chances conc.
Crystal Palace 7 33 10
Luton 6 37 10
Spurs 6 32 8
Everton 5 37 7
How do the opponents fare away from home?

When you compare the opposition defences away from home, it certainly lends more weight to Haaland's captaincy credentials.

Away from home, Luton have conceded more goals, shots in the box and big chances than any other side this season.

Crystal Palace's numbers also offer more encouragement for Salah, with their 50 big chances conceded on the road being considerably more than Everton or Spurs.

The latter two clubs are identical for goals conceded and clean sheets on their travels, with a single big chance conceded separating the pair.

Opponents' defending away from home, 2023/24
Team  Goals conc. Clean sheets Shots in box conc. Big chances conc.
Luton 38 0 225 66
Crystal Palace 30 3 155 50
Everton 24 4 173 36
Spurs 24 4 138 37
So, who is the best captain?

The analysis indicates each of the four contenders can produce another big score this weekend.

But Salah’s underlying numbers, both recently and at Anfield, give him the advantage, with his big-chance involvement vital to his prospects.

Although the player statistics show just why Palmer has been such a huge success recently, Everton are likely to put up a more robust defensive showing than Haaland’s visitors Luton.

Luton's dire displays on the road indicate Haaland can get back to his very best this weekend and show he could be the best alternative to Salah.

Meanwhile, Isak’s host of big chances and prolific goal conversion rate at home also suggest he can enjoy yet another successful outing at St James’ Park.

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