Fantasy Premier League

Who are the best forwards ahead of Double Gameweek 34?

11 Apr 2024

The Scout delves into the data to pick out the best options up front

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There are seven teams set to play twice in Double Gameweek 34 (DGW34) of Fantasy Premier League; Arsenal, AFC Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Everton, Liverpool, Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

So, who are the best forwards to invest in? Should FPL managers think twice before selling an in-form player such as Ollie Watkins (£8.8m) just because he doesn't have a DGW34? The Scout delves into the data to reveal the top picks.

Palace’s Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.0m) boasts the best form among the forwards from the DGW34 sides, scoring three goals and earning 24 points in his last four league outings.

That total puts Mateta third in his position in the analysis, bettered only by the 31 points of single-Gameweek 34 assets Alexander Isak (£7.9m) and Chris Wood (£4.9m).

They have both scored four goals, with Newcastle United's Isak also supplying an assist. 

Sheffield United’s Oli McBurnie (£5.4m) and Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo (£4.5m) have proven handy budget picks, both producing two goals, an assist and 20 points.

Semenyo’s team-mate Dominic Solanke (£7.3m) is just one point behind that pair, while Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) and Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez (£7.7m) are tied on 18 points, identical to single-Gameweek 34 players Erling Haaland (£14.3m) and Watkins.

Top scoring forwards, GW29-32
Player Pts G A Bonus
Isak  31   4  1  5
 Wood 31  4  0  7
 Mateta 24  3  0  5
 Muniz 23  3  0  3
 McBurnie 20  2  1  4
Semenyo 20 2 1 3
Solanke 19 2 0 4
Calvert-Lewin 18 2 0 4
Haaland 18 2 0 2
Nunez 18 1 2 0
Watkins 18 2 0 3

The underlying statistics highlight the huge goal threat of Liverpool’s Nunez.

His 14 shots in the box are bettered only by the 18 of Fulham’s Rodrigo Muniz (£4.7m) and are at least six more than any other DGW34 forward.

But Nunez's erratic finishing is very much in evidence here. He has scored with only one of his 16 attempts, which equates to a lowly 6.3 per cent goal conversion.

Calvert-Lewin and Mateta are tied on eight shots in the box, but the latter has had double the number of big chances, by four to two, and has converted 37.5 per cent of his efforts.

Semenyo and Solanke are both identical on seven shots in the box each, again highlighting the value of the former.

But in terms of big chances, Haaland, Isak and Wood – who all have a single fixture in DGW34 – are the leading contenders.

The numbers also show that Watkins has been somewhat fortuitous to score twice. He has had just six shots in his last four appearances, netting with two of his three shots on target.

Shots on target/big chances, GW29-32
Player Shots in box Big chances Shots on target Goal conversion
Muniz 18 3 6 16.7%
Nunez 14 3 5 6.3%
Toney 11 2 3 0.0%
Isak 10 5 7 30.8%
Haaland 10 6 4 18.2%
Calvert-Lewin 8 2 6 22.2%
Mateta 8 4 5 37.5%
Semenyo 7 2 4 22.2%
Jesus 7 1 2 0.0%
Wood 7 5 6 50.0%
Solanke 7 3 2 28.6%
McBurnie 6 4 4 28.6%
Watkins 5 2 3 33.3%
Who has the best run-in?

Liverpool and Sheff Utd have the most appealing run-ins among the DGW34 sides.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), four of the Blades’ final seven matches score just two. The combined total of those seven matches comes to 19, identical to that of Liverpool. 

As well as their DGW34 against Fulham and Everton, the Reds have very favourable home encounters with Palace and Wolves still to come.

Everton and Wolves each have four matches which score two in the FDR, although the latter’s appeal is considerably dented by a run-in that includes showdowns with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.

FDR analysis of run-ins
Team Total 2 3 4 5
SHU 19 4 1 2 0
LIV 19 3 3 1 0
EVE 20 4 1 1 1
ARS 20 3 2 2 0
BOU 21 3 2 1 1
CRY 21 2 4 0 1
WOL 23 4 0 0 3
So, what should managers do?

Nunez's underlying numbers and kind schedule indicate he is the one DGW34 forward who is worth investing in.

If you currently hold Haaland or Isak, the appeal of simply keeping them has been lifted this week by the confirmation that both Man City and Newcastle will have a DGW37.

Watkins, on the other hand, has no Double Gameweek on his schedule and, going by the numbers, he looks the one expendable asset among the highly-owned forwards.

Mateta’s improved consistency under Oliver Glasner suggests he could prove the standout budget striker among the DGW34 contingent, with Semenyo also in contention as a cut-price alternative to his more-expensive counterpart Solanke. 

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