Fantasy Premier League

Who’s the best FPL midfielder under £7.0m for fixtures ahead?

20 Nov 2023

Palmer? Mbeumo? Ward-Prowse? The Scout looks at the in-form picks over the busy upcoming period

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The Scout highlights the in-form midfielders priced under £7.0m for managers to target in Fantasy Premier League over the busy upcoming period.

Cole Palmer (£5.2m) has emerged as a budget gem since securing a starting role for Chelsea.

The 21-year-old has amassed 43 points over the last six Gameweeks, scoring four goals and supplying three assists.

See: Is it time to invest in Chelsea attack in Fantasy?

That places him second only to the 58 points of Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) among midfielders, and fourth overall.

Palmer has blanked only once in that run and his role as Chelsea’s first-choice penalty-taker has lifted his output considerably.

After scoring four goals in back-to-back matches with Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City, the Blues’ upcoming schedule gives them every opportunity to offer big value over the festive period.

From Gameweek 16, eight of Chelsea’s subsequent nine matches score only two in the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR).

Chelsea's GW16-25 matches
GW Opp. FDR* GW Opp FDR*
16 EVE (A) 2 21 FUL (H) 2
17 SHU (H)  2 22 LIV (A) 4
18  WOL (A) 2 23 WOL (H) 2
19 CRY (H) 2 24 CRY (A) 2
20 LUT (A) 2 25 MCI (A) 5

*Fixture Difficulty Ratings (1= easiest, 5 = hardest)

Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo (£6.8m) ranks second to Palmer among midfielders costing under £7.0m in the last six Gameweeks.

The Cameroon international has matched the 38 points of big-hitter Son Heung-min (£9.7m), producing two goals and three assists.

Mbeumo also has a very favourable festive schedule ahead. From Gameweek 14 onwards, five of the Bees’ seven matches score only two in the FDR.

See: Mbeumo can be a must-have from Gameweek 14

Managers should be aware, though, that Brentford and Man City have a Blank Gameweek 18 (BGW18) due to the latter’s participation in the FIFA Club World Cup.

Brentford's GW14-23 matches
14 LUT (H) 2 19 WOL (H) 2
15 BHA (A) 3 20 CRY (A) 2
16 SHU (A) 2 21 NFO (H) 2
17 AVL (H) 3 22 TOT (A) 3
18 - - 23 MCI (H) 5

Chelsea and Aston Villa have provided plenty of value, each supplying three of the 10 players here.  

Palmer’s team-mate Conor Gallagher (£5.4m) has delivered all five of his assists in 2023/24 over this run, while Villa trio Moussa Diaby (£6.8m), Douglas Luiz (£5.6m) and John McGinn (£5.5m) have each been involved in at least four goals.

Sub-£7.0m midfielders for FPL points, GW7-12
Player Pts Goals + assists G A Bonus
Palmer 43 7 4 3 4
Mbeumo 38 5 2 3 5
Hwang 36 5 3 2 5
Douglas Luiz 36 4 3 1 7
Diaby 33 5 1 4 3
Gallagher 32 5 0 5 4
Doku 31 6 1 5 4
McGinn 31 4 2 2 4
Sterling 31 5 2 3 3
Bernardo Silva 31 4 2 2 5
Who’s most likely to score?

Mbeumo’s underlying statistics are among the very best across all price points in midfield.

His 21 shots place top in his position, while his eight shots on target were bettered only by the nine of Son.

West Ham United’s Tomas Soucek (£4.9m) has also boasted a strong goal threat, his 12 shots in the box placing second only to the 13 of Mbeumo.

Although all four of Palmer’s goals – and four of his seven big chances - were converted penalties, his numbers still impress.

His 16 shots and seven shots on target both sit second only to Mbeumo in the analysis.

Elsewhere, Hwang Hee-chan (£5.5m) and Kaoru Mitoma (£6.6m) are among the top players for big chances, with six and four respectively.

Yet the pair’s output could barely be more contrasting.

Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Hwang has scored three goals and supplied two assists to thrive as a differential. Mitoma has proved a big frustration for his 36 per cent backers, with only a single assist for Brighton & Hove Albion.

Sub-£7.0m midfielders for shots in the box, GW7-12
Player Shots Shots in box Big chances Shots on target Goal conversion
Mbeumo 21 13 4 8 9.5%
Soucek 13 12 5 6 23.1%
Hwang 11 11 6 3 27.3%
Norgaard 13 10 1 2 7.7%
Zaniola 12 10 2 3 0.0%
Palmer 16 9 7 7 25.0%
Richarlison 13 9 3 3 0.0%
Doku 13 9 0 4 7.7%
Mitoma 11 9 4 4 0.0%
Who’s most likely to get an assist?

James Ward-Prowse’s (£6.1m) set-piece duties for West Ham make him the leading midfielder for creativity here.

Indeed, his totals of 20 key passes, 10 successful corners and 11 free-kick crosses are all more than any other player in his position in Fantasy from Gameweek 7 onwards.

Mbeumo’s prospects are also lifted by his dead-ball duties, with his 24 corners and nine successful corners both placing among the top five midfielders overall.

Palmer, along with Mbeumo, Hwang and Man City’s Jeremy Doku (£6.7m), is one of four players to feature among the top performers for both underlying goal threat and creativity here.

His four big chances created are second only to the five of Bernardo Silva (£6.3m), highlighting Palmer's immediate influence on Mauricio Pochettino’s side.

Sub-£7.0m midfielders for key passes, GW7-12
Player Key passes Big chances created Corners Free kick crosses
Ward-Prowse 20 3 31 11
Gallagher 15 2 16 0
Pereira 14 1 26 1
McNeil 13 3 12 5
Mbeumo 13 2 24 3
McGinn 12 3 7 0
Diaby 12 3 2 0
Gibbs-White 11 2 16 6
Doku 11 2 0 0
Bernardo 10 5 0 0
Palmer 10 4 6 3
Hwang 10 2 2 0
So, what should managers do?

Ultimately, Mbeumo ticks virtually every box managers are looking for.

Brentford’s upcoming schedule can help him bring in major hauls ahead of his Blank Gameweek 18, which managers can easily cater for by planning well in advance.

In addition to his set-piece duties, Mbeumo is Brentford’s first-choice penalty-taker while Ivan Toney (£7.9m) remains suspended.

He is also one of only two midfielders, along with Bruno Fernandes (£8.3m), to have played every minute of the first 12 Gameweeks.

While Palmer can inevitably expect a downturn in penalty opportunities, the numbers show just how quickly he has settled as a key player for Chelsea.

At a cost of only £5.2m, he can certainly match Mbeumo for value, in terms of points per million output, when his schedule turns kinder in Gameweek 16.

The statistics also indicate Ward-Prowse and Soucek can profit from West Ham’s kind run of opponents.

According to the FDR, four of their next five matches score only two, with Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) now owned by 30 per cent of managers.

West Ham's next five matches
GW Opp. FDR*
13 BUR (A)  2
14 CRY (H)    2
15 TOT (A) 3
16 FUL (A)    2
17 WOL (H) 2

*Fixture Difficulty Ratings (1= easiest, 5 = hardest)

Ward-Prowse’s delivery may prove particularly profitable in this run and a double-up with Bowen could pay off.

Hwang can also continue to thrive in the short-term, with Wolves facing Fulham, Burnley and Nottingham Forest in the next four Gameweeks.

While Doku’s numbers are also encouraging, owners of Mbeumo and Erling Haaland (£14.0m) should be careful of investing any further in Blank Gameweek 18 assets.

View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 13 in Fantasy Premier League

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