Alex Keble analyses where the weekend's matches could be won and lost, including:
- The key duel between Mitoma and Alexander-Arnold
- Why Arsenal must beat Man City
Mitoma v Alexander-Arnold
There are no two teams more explosive in the transition than Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool, and on Sunday these two hard-pressing teams will go all-in on winning possession and sprinting in straight lines at one another’s porous defences. It should be a lot of fun.
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Brighton’s opening seven matches have produced 33 goals, more than anyone else in the Premier League, while Liverpool’s combined Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) is actually higher than Brighton’s at 23.7.
The respective attacks are likely to win out. Brighton are weaker at defending transitions since Moises Caicedo’s departure while Liverpool don’t appear to have adequately replaced Fabinho, with Alexis Mac Allister sometimes getting overrun alone at the base of midfield.
See: How De Zerbi must balance risk and reward
But it isn’t all about the midfield battle. Moussa Diaby and Ollie Watkins tore Brighton apart in Aston Villa’s 6-1 win last weekend, and it is easy to envisage Mohamed Salah and the rest of the Liverpool frontline doing something similar. After all, Jurgen Klopp has been more direct this season: Liverpool have attempted 86.4 long balls per 90 minutes, up from 69.9 in 2022/23.
At the other end, the head-to-head between Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kaoru Mitoma is a worrying prospect for Liverpool fans.
Five of the six goals Brighton scored against Liverpool in the Premier League last season were built down Alexander-Arnold’s side, and for at least three of them, the right-back can take responsibility for being in the wrong position or being beaten in the dribble.
Brighton, knowing this, tended to focus their attacks down that side, not least because that’s where their best player, Mitoma, operates:
Nevertheless, this is but one battle in what should be a wild and high-scoring match.
Arsenal must win if they are to pip City to title
Arsenal have lost 12 consecutive Premier League matches against Manchester City, and by an aggregate score of 33-5. It is their longest-ever losing run against a single team in their league history.
See: Arsenal v Man City: All the times Arteta has faced Guardiola
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They haven’t kept a clean sheet against Man City in 16 matches. Mikel Arteta has beaten 23 of the 24 teams he has faced – everyone except Pep Guardiola's side.
In fact, so bad is Arsenal’s sequence, if Man City win again this weekend, their run of 13 consecutive league victories will become the joint-longest streak in Premier League history, equalling Man Utd’s against Wigan Athletic from 2005 to 2013 and City’s against West Bromwich Albion, between 2012 and 2018.
Arsenal and Arteta might not get a better chance than this. Kevin De Bruyne’s injury and Rodri’s suspension are significant. Wolverhampton Wanderers beating Man City in their most recent league match is perhaps even bigger.
Here is a chance to finally end the hoodoo and move above Man City in the table. More importantly, a win would signal Arsenal’s title credentials and prove they have grown since last season.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
37 | +60 | 88 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
37 | +61 | 86 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
37 | +43 | 79 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
37 | +20 | 68 |
Their 3-1 and 4-1 defeats to Man City in the league in 2022/23 ultimately decided the title. Winning just one of these contests would have been enough to make Arsenal champions.
Put simply, if Arsenal have hopes of winning the Premier League this season, they need to beat Man City at least once. A Rodri-less and De Bruyne-less Man City, at home, is about as easy as the challenge will get – even if injury doubt Bukayo Saka’s isn't passed fit.
See: Can Kovacic and Phillips step up in Rodri's absence?
Arsenal have to win, and not just for their own sake. If the champions lose again, they could drop down to fifth in the table, blowing the title race wide open.
This is it. This is the chance, for Arsenal and for everyone else.
