Fantasy Premier League

FPL long view: How Salah and Son compare ahead of kind fixtures

By The Scout 27 Sep 2023

The Scout analyses premium midfielders’ recent displays as they approach a favourable run of matches

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The recent displays of Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) and Son Heung-min (£9.2m) have greatly increased their appeal in Fantasy Premier League, and their kind upcoming schedules only add to the attraction of transferring in at least one of them.

See: FPL experts: Is Son or Salah the bigger priority?

Salah has enjoyed a flawless start to the season, delivering attacking returns in each of Liverpool’s first six matches.

He sits a single point off the top of the midfield standings on 43 points after back-to-back double-figure hauls in the last two Gameweeks.

Son, meanwhile, places joint-top among midfielders along with Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£8.7m) thanks to a recent change in role for Tottenham Hotspur.

Moved up front in Gameweek 4, he has scored all five of his goals this season in the last three matches.

Son has amassed a league-high 36 points in that recent run, scoring a hat-trick against Burnley and netting twice in the north London derby last weekend.

Son's second goal v Arsenal

Salah’s 28 points place him third from Gameweek 4 onwards, with Erling Haaland (£14.1m) taking second spot on 32 points. 

Salah’s all-round influence has helped him combine two goals with two assists, while he has matched Son’s five bonus.

Son v Salah output last three Gameweeks
Player Points Goals Assists Bonus
Son 36 5 0 5
Salah 28 2 2 5

Although Salah has remained in his usual role on the right, he has boasted a near-identical goal threat to Son since the latter moved up front for Spurs.

The South Korean has a very slight edge for shots and shots in the box, with his total of four big chances – twice that of Salah’s two – his most impressive statistic.

Yet Son has struggled to compete with the Liverpool star when it comes to supplying scoring opportunities for their team-mates.

Salah has recorded triple the number of key passes, while he has created six big chances in his last three outings compared with Son’s one.

Son v Salah goal threat and creativity last three Gameweeks
Statistic Son Salah
Shots 11 10
Shots in box 9 8
Big chances 4 2
Key passes 3 9
Big chances created 1 6

The Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) statistics shed more light on the premium pair’s recent showings.

Son has far exceeded his anticipated output as a result of his prolific finishing skills, scoring five goals from an xG of just 1.79.

Factoring in his Expected Assists (xA) of 0.43, this means the Spurs star has an xGI Delta (the metric that measures how many more goals and assists a player has produced compared to what he's expected to have achieved) of +2.78 since Ange Postecoglou switched him from his previous role on the left flank.

Salah betters his premium rival for both xG and xA, underlining his huge all-round potential.

Notably, the Liverpool star has remained fairly true to his xGI here, with a Delta of only +0.12 showing his output has been no fluke.

See: How to use Expected Goals data in Fantasy

Son v Salah expected stats last three Gameweeks
Player xG Goals xA Assists xGI xGI Delta
Son 1.79 5 0.43 0 2.22 +2.78
Salah 2.07 2 1.81 2 3.88 +0.12

Both premium big-hitters also have the fixtures to maintain their run of form after they go head-to-head in Gameweek 7 this weekend.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), four of Spurs’ subsequent five matches from Gameweek 8 score a mere two.

Spurs' fixtures GW8-12
8 LUT (A) 2
9 FUL (H) 2
10 CRY (A) 2
11 CHE (H) 3
12 WOL (A) 2

Meanwhile, only four of Liverpool’s 10 matches from that point score more than two in the FDR.

Liverpool's fixtures GW8-17
8 BHA (A) 3 13 MCI (A) 5
9 EVE (H) 2 14 FUL (H) 2
10 NFO (H) 2 15 SHU (A) 2
11 LUT (A) 2 16 CRY (A) 2
12 BRE (H) 3 17 MUN (H) 3

Ultimately, Salah’s potential for both goals and assists gives him the edge for those managers who would prefer to choose between the duo.

But owning both looks a far more sensible strategy. 

Salah and Son are two of the most reliable players in the history of Fantasy and have the form and fixtures to reward investors for many Gameweeks to come.

View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 7 in Fantasy Premier League

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