Fantasy Premier League

How to use Expected Goals data in Fantasy

By The Scout 22 Sep 2023
Erling Haaland lead image

The Scout looks at Erling Haaland's debut Fantasy campaign to explain the basics of Expected Goals data

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The Scout looks at Erling Haaland's (£14.1m) debut season to explain the basics behind the Expected Goals (xG) data in Fantasy Premier League.

xG measures

The addition of xG data brings an extra element to managers’ decision-making in Fantasy.

xG measures, on a scale between zero and one, the probability of a shot resulting in a goal, where zero represents a chance that is impossible to score and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every single time.

In a similar vein, Expected Assists (xA) measures the likelihood that a completed pass will become a goal assist.

See: FPL glossary: Fantasy talk explained

A player’s overall attacking potential is then measured by combining both their xG and xA to create their Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) score.

Assessing Haaland's debut season at Manchester City gives an idea of how to apply this data.

Haaland's xGI, 2022/23
Statistic 2022/23
Goals 36
xG 28.54
+/- xG +7.46
Assists 9
xA 3.11
+/- xA +5.89
Goals and Assists 45
xGI 31.65
+/- xGI +13.35

Haaland recorded an xG score of 28.54 last season.

Thanks to his prolific finishing skills, he scored 36 goals to far exceed his xG by 7.46.

The Norwegian also fared much better than anticipated for assists.

Despite a low xA of 3.11, Haaland collected nine assists in Fantasy to surpass that score by 5.89.

Essentially, then, the forward totalled an xGI score of 31.65 across his debut campaign.

However, Haaland was involved in 45 goals in his debut season, easily topping his xGI by 13.35.

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