Fantasy Premier League

FPL long view: Target Villa, Liverpool and Luton for favourable fixtures

By The Scout 13 Sep 2023

The Scout looks at the key players among those clubs with kind upcoming schedules

Both Aston Villa and Liverpool's upcoming schedules can play a significant part in shaping managers’ plans in Fantasy Premier League.

Luton Town also have an appealing run of opponents, including a Double Gameweek 7 against Everton and Burnley, which could offer managers big value in the short term.

The Scout picks out the key players to consider from each club.

Aston Villa

Unai Emery's side boast an extended run of kind opponents, beginning with a home encounter against Crystal Palace this weekend.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), six of Villa’s next eight matches score only two.

Moussa Diaby (£6.6m) offers the value route into their attack. The winger is their top-scoring player this season, earning 24 points thanks to two goals and an assist.

Although he has been overshadowed by the summer signing, Ollie Watkins (£8.0m) has only blanked once in the opening four matches.

His 10 shots, nine shots in the box and four big chances are all team-leading totals.

Matty Cash (£4.7m) has been Villa’s top performer at the back, scoring twice to collect 21 points.

See: Attacking returns key to budget defenders outshining premiums

Indeed, the right-back’s nine shots, seven shots in the box and five shots on target all place first among defenders in FPL.

Nonetheless, the imminent return of Alex Moreno (£5.0m) could force a reassessment of the Villa backline, as Cash would be competing with Ezri Konsa (£4.5m) for a starting role.

Liverpool

Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) is the only midfielder or forward to both start and produce attacking returns in the first four Gameweeks of 2023/24 Fantasy.

The Egyptian has just a single blank in 14 outings since Liverpool changed formation towards the end of the last season.

The Reds’ schedule gives Salah the chance to finally justify his premium price tag.

According to the FDR, five of Liverpool’s next seven matches score a mere two.

Liverpool's next seven matches

GW	Opponent	FDR	GW	Opponent	FDR
5	Wolves (A)	2	9	Everton (H)	2
6	West Ham (H)	2	10	Nott'm Forest (H)	2
7	Spurs (A)	3	11	Luton (A)	2
8	Brighton (A)	3

The underlying numbers offer further encouragement for Jurgen Klopp’s talisman.

Salah's 14 shots and seven shots on target both place second among midfielders and are more than any team-mate.

In addition, he has created four big chances, joint-top among all players in Fantasy.

Both Darwin Nunez (£7.4m) and Luis Diaz (£7.7m) have the form to offer a cheaper alternative to Salah or even a double-up option, should they avoid being rotated.

Nunez’s two goals and two assists in his last two outings suggest he is currently the Reds’ first-choice forward, while Diaz has started each of the first four Gameweeks and scored twice.

At the back, Trent Alexander-Arnold’s (£7.9m) assist, clean sheet and 12 points against Villa in Gameweek 4 served managers a timely reminder of his potential for huge hauls.

Nonetheless, he’s one to monitor for now given the far cheaper alternatives elsewhere for managers’ defences.

Luton Town

Five of Luton’s next six matches in the next five Gameweeks score only two in the FDR, which suggests this could be the best time this season to consider investing in their players.

Forward Carlton Morris (£5.5m) is the standout pick. He was a key figure in the Hatters’ promotion from the Championship last season, scoring 20 of their 57 goals and assisting a further seven.

Morris has blanked just once in his first three outings this season, producing a goal against Brighton & Hove Albion and supplying an assist against West Ham United.

See: How to plan for Luton and Burnley's Double Gameweek 7

Having conceded nine goals in three matches since their promotion, it’s tough to make a case for the Hatters’ defenders.

Left wing-back Ryan Giles (£4.5m) has made 32 crosses this season, more than any other defender in Fantasy.

Similar to Morris, he could appeal to managers who plan to “dead end” their squads in Gameweek 7 with the intention of playing their Wildcard in Gameweek 8.