Opta Analyst’s Matt Furniss looks at the attributes and stats that make Hugo Ekitike a smart, like-for-like alternative to Newcastle United's star forward Alexander Isak.
After a fantastic season in Germany, Hugo Ekitike is the latest player to make a big-money move to the Premier League. Reports suggested that Newcastle United appeared to be in pole position for his signature until Liverpool stepped up their pursuit of the 23-year-old striker from Eintracht Frankfurt.
Liverpool’s first choice was reportedly Alexander Isak, but with Newcastle staunch in their position that he’s not for sale, attention was diverted to Ekitike, the player Eddie Howe wanted to partner their Swedish striker.
Are Arne Slot and Liverpool really having to settle for second-best? The statistics suggest maybe not.
Tricky beginnings
Ekitike made his top-flight debut in France in October 2020 at hometown club Reims, but despite two Ligue 1 substitute appearances in 2020/21, he had to wait nearly a year for another first-team opportunity.
New coach Oscar Garcia put his faith in the then 19-year-old, gradually building up his minutes after playing him off the bench in Reims’ opening-day draw at Nice in 2021/22.
His breakthrough season in France saw him end with a very respectable 10 goals in 24 appearances and with one of the best minutes-per-goal ratios in the French top flight (127min/goal).
Ekitike’s impact on the team was clear, scoring twice as many goals as any other player and recording a team-high 13 goal involvements, which helped him secure four of the nine Player of the Month awards at the club in 2021/22.
Ekitike was the obvious jewel in the Reims crown; a standout player in an ordinary side, and this is when Newcastle’s interest first developed. The Magpies reportedly made an offer for the teenager, but no move materialised until he eventually chose Paris Saint-Germain.
That transfer began as a season-long loan in the French capital for the 2022/23 campaign, with Ekitike arriving as a relatively inexperienced forward and trying to compete with the already sensational talents of Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and Lionel Messi. As a result, his playing time was largely restricted to appearances off the bench, coming on 13 times as a substitute in Ligue 1 matches, more than he started that season.
The Frenchman would have hoped to kick on in 2023/24, but Mauricio Pochettino left as coach, and his successor, Christophe Galtier, had other plans.
Despite his loan move being made permanent and the exits of Neymar and Messi, Ekitike’s chances at PSG almost entirely disappeared in 2023/24.
The nine minutes he played as a sub in the opening-day draw with Lorient was the only game time Ekitike saw in the first half of the season. Eintracht Frankfurt offered him a way out and taking that offer changed the trajectory of his career.
Attack-minded
A relatively slow start at Eintracht saw Ekitike gradually integrated into Dino Toppmoller’s side. Toppmoller handed him his third league start in the home meeting with FC Augsburg on 19 April 2024, and everything began to click. His four goals and five goal involvements in Frankfurt’s final five matches of the Bundesliga season from that game on were more than any other player at the club, while nobody created more than his seven chances from open play.
Since that day, only Harry Kane (39) and Andrej Kramaric (29) have been involved in more goals than Ekitike’s 28 (19 goals, nine assists) in the German top flight.
A year later, Ekitike has moved to the Premier League for a fee reportedly over three times the amount Eintracht paid for him. His attacking output in 2024/25 might explain why.
Appearing in dangerous areas
At a top level, Ekitike's 15 goals saw him finish as the joint-sixth highest striker in the Bundesliga in 2024/25, while only seven players assisted more than his eight. Ranking joint-fourth for total goal involvements (23), he helped Eintracht secure their best league finish in 13 years and secure qualification to the UEFA Champions League.
He was adept at bringing team-mates into play, ranking seventh for open-play chance creation (44) in the league, but it’s his ability to pop up in dangerous areas that was the most eye-catching.
Across the top five European leagues in 2024/25, Ekitike was one of only four players to play at least 1,500 minutes and average both more than four shots per 90 (4.1) and over seven touches in the opposition box per 90 (7.2) alongside Lamine Yamal, Mbappe and Dembele, that’s certainly esteemed company to keep.
Drilling into the underlying numbers further, he has elite attacking output when considering non-penalty Expected Goals (xG) and xG assisted, too.
Again, only looking at players to play at least 1,500 minutes across the top five European leagues last season, Ekitike ranked fifth for non-penalty xG per 90 (0.67) and among the top 50 for xG assisted (0.24). He was higher than Isak in both metrics.
As both a threat in front of goal as well as creatively, that placed Ekitike among the most threatening attacking players in European football last season.
Of attacking midfielders, wingers and forwards to play 1,500 minutes across those top five European leagues, only a select few were able to average a higher combined non-penalty xG and xG assisted per 90 than him (0.91).
Doubts raised over finishing
Ekitike’s knack of being able to get himself into great positions in front of goal was clear in 2024/25, with the Frenchman accumulating the third-highest xG total from non-penalty shots across the top five European leagues (19.2) and ranking joint-sixth for non-penalty shots inside the box (85).
But this also had a downside, as it gave him more chances to miss. Overall, he scored 14 goals from non-penalty shots in the Bundesliga last season, with that underperformance (-5.2) compared to his xG (19.2) the highest across the major European leagues.
Of the 38 players to attempt at least 80 non-penalty shots across the top five leagues in 2024/25, his average shot quality was among the best (0.17 – joint sixth), but he converted just 12.3 per cent of these shots, which placed him 23rd.
Comparing that to Isak, whose average shot quality wasn’t too dissimilar (0.18) and scored with 20 per cent of such shots, could alarm some Liverpool fans. It’s crucial to take these numbers with a pinch of salt, though.
Refining his craft
Ekitike is young. He’s still yet to play a league match as a 23-year-old following his birthday in June, and with just 5,817 minutes of top-flight league football under his belt, he is still refining his craft. Having the ability to train and play with elite players at Liverpool, not to mention the guidance of Slot, could elevate his performances.
Underperformance of xG isn’t a red flag for finishing quality unless sustained over a considerable amount of time – the same goes for the opposite too; if someone scores a lot of goals from a relatively low xG total over a period of one or two seasons, that doesn’t immediately qualify them as a legendary finisher.
It’s also crucial to analyse Ekitike’s shooting statistics with the consideration that Eintracht were one of the most prolific sides at attacking in transition last season. Their 53 shots attempted led the Bundesliga last season, as did their 12 goals from fast breaks. The only team to post higher numbers across the top five European leagues in 2024/25 was...Liverpool.
The Reds had 66 shot-ending fast-breaks and scored 14 of those, so adding a player who’s good at running with the ball is a no-brainer.
Ekitike thrived in the space created while attacking in transition at Frankfurt, and few players across Europe’s top five leagues had more shots following ball carries in 2024/25 than he did (44) – Yamal (56) and Mbappe (50).
Working hard out of possession
Frankfurt weren’t a side who based their game around a high press last season. They ranked about midway in the competition for PPDA (passes per defensive action, which measures how much time an opponent is given), while only six of the 17 other clubs made fewer high turnovers in 2024/25.
But when they did press high up the pitch, they made it count.
Just five teams saw a greater proportion of their high turnovers end in shots (16.7 per cent), and only Borussia Dortmund (3.4 per cent) and Bayern Munich (4.6 per cent) had a greater share lead to goals than Eintracht's 3.2 per cent.
Based on Opta Vision data, which combines computer vision and generative AI techniques to provide dynamic off-ball metrics, Ekitike played a big part in this.
Despite many of Eintracht’s overall pressing numbers being in the lower half of the Bundesliga, Ekitike ranked in the top seven players in the competition for pressures applied (both overall and those deemed high pressure) in the opposition’s half and final-third pressures applied (again, both overall and high pressure).
When Eintracht did press high up the pitch, it was quite often Ekitike putting in the hard yards. Across all players at the club last season, he averaged 15.3 high-intensity pressures in the final third per 90 minutes, which was more than any team-mate. His nearest rival was Mario Gotze, who averaged the next most, with 12.6 per 90.
Newcastle would have been an interesting destination for Ekitike, as the Magpies showed similarities with Eintracht, in that they weren’t prolific at pressing high up the pitch but were highly efficient.
For instance, only Nottingham Forest (4.3 per cent) saw a higher proportion of high turnovers end in a goal than they did (3.7 per cent), while their proportion of high turnovers ending in shots (19.5 per cent) was bettered by just three teams in 2024/25 – all despite tallying the 14th-most high turnovers (241).
Similarities in style
Unable to get Isak, it’s clear why Liverpool diverted their attentions to the 23-year-old French forward. Stylistically, they are very similar.
Isak played an almost identical role in Newcastle’s press as Ekitike did at Eintracht last season.
Like Ekitike, Isak was one of the most prolific final-third pressers in the Premier League in 2024/25, ranking fifth overall for final-third pressures applied and third for high-intensity final-third pressures despite Newcastle being mid-ranking in the Premier League as a team.
Isak averaged a team-high 19.6 high-intensity pressures per 90 in the Premier League last season, leading the way in the metric for Newcastle, with only Anthony Gordon (15.0) averaging nearly as many as the Swede.
Using Opta Player Radars, we can compare different players’ rankings across various aspects of the game based on their position, and produce a similarity score.
Last season, the player deemed most like Ekitike based on their statistical output was Isak, with an 84 per cent similarity. If Isak were Liverpool’s first-choice, then Ekitike isn’t an unconventional second.
What next for Ekitike?
Moving to Liverpool has the potential to elevate Ekitike’s game to the next level. His previous transfer to one of Europe’s biggest clubs didn’t work out so well, but with 18 months of experience in the Bundesliga under his belt, he has become a more rounded player.
Despite winning the Premier League last season, Slot and Liverpool have already strengthened their squad with the signings of Milos Kerkez, Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong – the latter two also from the Bundesliga.
With Federico Chiesa limited to only six appearances in 2024/25, both Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz strongly linked with departures in this transfer window, and the tragic death of Diogo Jota, another attacking option was needed to provide competition – and support – for Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo.
Isak seemingly won’t be that player, but Ekitike is about as close to him as you can get.