Football writer Ben McAleer looks at the state of play at the bottom of the table, with a group of clubs fighting to avoid the drop.
We’re nearing the final stretch of the Premier League season as teams at both ends of the table seek glory and consolidation. At the bottom, clubs are striving to avoid dropping into the Championship.
The bottom three will ply their trade in England’s second tier next season. As things stand, that would be Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley, along with West Ham United who currently occupy 18th place. However, there is still plenty to play for between now and May, with more twists and turns sure to follow.
Burnley and Wolves need extraordinary turnaround
Wolves' situation looks perilous. Rob Edwards’ side have just nine points from 26 matches and find themselves 18 points off safety with 12 games to go. For a team that has only one league victory this season, they would need at least six more wins to give themselves a chance of staying up.
Burnley are in a stronger position, having collected 18 points following their surprise 3-2 victory at Crystal Palace, a result that ended a 16-game winless streak, yet they still need to make up a nine-point gap to 17th-placed Nottingham Forest.
The Clarets must effectively double their win count in order to still be playing Premier League football next season. It would take an extraordinary turnaround for the bottom two to start the 2026/27 campaign as top-flight sides.
Can Tudor arrest Spurs' slide?
Assuming that Burnley and Wolves have left themselves too much to do to stay up, the question now is who looks the most likely to join them in the bottom three come the end of May? Just six points separate Leeds United in 15th from West Ham in 18th, with Tottenham Hotspur and Forest sandwiched between the duo.
Spurs are the standout side in the quartet, as last season’s UEFA Europa League winners and one of only six ever-present clubs in the Premier League. West Ham and Forest have occasionally flirted with relegation, while Leeds were one of the early-season favourites to drop back into the Championship.
Based on recent form, it's Spurs who appear en route to lose this dogfight. The north London side are yet to win a league match in 2026, have won only two of their last 17 games and face league leaders and rivals Arsenal next.
Spurs will hope for a "new manager bounce" by the time they welcome the Gunners on Sunday 22 February, having relieved Thomas Frank of his duties, with Igor Tudor taking charge for the rest of the season.
West Ham and Leeds in form but Forest lacking goals
A 2-1 home defeat to West Ham was one of the deciding factors that effectively sealed Frank’s fate. The Hammers looked to be firmly stuck in the bottom three earlier in the year, yet Nuno Espirito Santo has since gone on to oversee three wins in five, including the aforementioned victory over Spurs. The appointment of Paco Jemez as a first-team coach has gone virtually unnoticed, and doesn’t get the credit it deserves.
Leeds, too, are picking up the odd result that will boost their hopes of avoiding an immediate return to the Championship. A 2-2 draw at Chelsea, where they battled back from 2-0 down, could prove crucial in the long run. Daniel Farke's side have lost only two of their last 13 matches. Conversely, they’ve won only four times in that period, one of which, however, came against relegation rivals Forest.
Forest clawed themselves three points clear of the drop zone, albeit with a 0-0 draw at home to Wolves, despite having 35 shots on goal. To some, that’s two points dropped rather than one gained. It was a result that cost Sean Dyche his job, even if it gave Forest a modicum of breathing space in this relegation scuffle.
Who has the toughest fixtures?
This breathing space could be key when taking into account the difficulty of their remaining games using the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), a resource that has long been useful for Fantasy Premier League managers when planning their future transfers.
The FDR is based on a complex algorithm developed by FPL experts and ranks fixtures by difficulty on a sliding scale from one (easiest) to five (hardest).
By adding each club's remaining FDR scores together and dividing them by 12 (the number of games remaining), we can measure which club has the trickiest run-in.
And with an FDR average of 3.08, it is West Ham who look to have the toughest set of matches to see out the season.
The Hammers have three fixtures over the next 12 Matchweeks that boast a difficulty rating of four (out of five), as they face Manchester City and Arsenal at home, and Newcastle United away, the latter outings coming in two of the final three weeks of the season.
Nuno’s side also have just three matches with an FDR rating of two or below as they take on Wolves, Everton and Leeds at London Stadium between now and May.
Forest, meanwhile, fair marginally better in their FDR, with an average of 3.00 for the next 12 games. They face Liverpool and Man City over the next three Matchweeks, with both opponents providing a difficulty rating of four. What’s more, only two of Forest's remaining matches have a two rating - home fixtures against Fulham and Burnley.
With the final eight games each given a rating of three, Vitor Pereira - appointed as new head coach at the City Ground on Sunday - is set for a testing start to life in Nottingham.
Finally, both Leeds and Spurs boast an average FDR of 2.83, which is a bonus given they sit six and five points, respectively, above the relegation zone.
Leeds, Spurs, Forest and West Ham's remaining fixtures
Spurs do have a tough set of away games to round off a disappointing season, notably trips to Anfield, where they haven’t won since 2011, and Stamford Bridge, where they have won just once in Premier League history, to face Liverpool and Chelsea, respectively.
Conversely, four of their remaining 12 games have an FDR of two or below, and two of those are against relegation rivals Forest and Leeds. Likewise, Leeds have four matches to go with an FDR of two or lower, while just two of the final 12 are ranked four or above.
All four sides will be looking to break the magic 40-point barrier, which is often viewed as the amount of points needed to stay up.
That said, the 40-point mark doesn’t necessarily need to be breached for teams to keep their head above water. In fact, back in 2002/03, West Ham were the last club to be relegated with at least 40 points. Eight sides – most recently Everton in 2022/23 – have avoided relegation on 36 points, while West Bromwich Albion in 2004/05 stayed up with the fewest points in Premier League history (34) as the Baggies pulled off the "Great Escape".
For context, West Ham are on course to finish on 35 points, based on their points-per-game ratio after 26 matches. However, that doesn't take into account their significant recent upturn in form: only Chelsea (13), Manchester United (13) and AFC Bournemouth (11) can better their 10 points over the past five matchweeks.
The Hammers will need to maintain that momentum, though, given they appear to have the toughest schedule to see out the campaign.