Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) and Newcastle United's Bruno Guimaraes (£7.1m) both have the form and fixture to outscore Manchester City's Erling Haaland (£15.1m) in Gameweek 21, which has a deadline of 18:30 GMT on Tuesday 6 January.
Watkins visits a Crystal Palace side who have managed just one clean sheet in their last eight matches. The forward has blanked only once in the last seven Gameweeks, scoring six goals and assisting a further two to collect 49 points.
Newcastle midfielder Guimaraes faces a Leeds United side with one clean sheet in 17 matches. He is the second top-scoring player in home matches this season, amassing 73 points across his 10 appearances at St James’ Park.
Haaland, on the other hand, is set to host Brighton & Hove Albion while enduring his worst run of form in 2025/26 Fantasy. He has blanked in each of the last three Gameweeks, collecting a combined six points against Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and Chelsea.
Who are the form players in Fantasy?
Arsenal's Declan Rice (£7.2m) and Liverpool's Florian Wirtz (£8.2m) have been among the recent top-performing players in Fantasy ahead of their showdown at Emirates Stadium on Thursday evening.
Rice is now in top spot in the FPL midfielder standings after producing two goals, two assists and 33 points across the last four Gameweeks.
Wirtz has scored both of his goals this season in that same period, as well as supplying one of his two assists.
Brentford, meanwhile, supply as many as FIVE of the 11 players in the table below that lists the top players for FPL points over the last four Gameweeks.
Midfielder Kevin Schade (£7.1m) has been the Bees' standout player ahead of their home match against Sunderland, with three goals, an assist and 32 points across Gameweeks 17-20.
Forward Igor Thiago (£7.0m) ended his six-match goal drought with a hat-trick against Everton last weekend.
While Watkins is also among the players with 26+ points to their name over Gameweeks 17-20, Haaland has been outperformed by his midfield team-mates Tijjani Reijnders (£5.2m) and Rayan Cherki (£6.8m).
Top-scoring players, last four Gameweeks
| Player | Goals | Assists | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Schade | 3 | 1 | 32 |
| Collins | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| Wirtz | 2 | 1 | 31 |
| Garner | 1 | 1 | 29 |
| Janelt | 0 | 3 | 29 |
| Lewis-Potter | 2 | 0 | 29 |
| Watkins | 4 | 1 | 29 |
| Reijnders | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| Cherki | 1 | 1 | 26 |
| Thiago | 3 | 1 | 26 |
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Who's had the most goal threat?
A delve into the underlying data across those last four Gameweeks shows why Watkins has recaptured his best form.
The Villa forward has had seven big chances - situations where a player is expected to score - in that spell, more than any other player in Fantasy.
AFC Bournemouth's David Brooks (£5.0m) and Brentford's Schade lead the way in the table below, though, due to their all-round contributions.
Both have had six big chances and created two of them for their team-mates in the last four Gameweeks, which means they have been involved in a total of eight big chances.
Despite his poor output, Haaland is still boasting a considerable goal threat.
His 13 shots in the box rank second here, while he's had five big chances (BC). The problem is he's converted just 12.5 per cent of his shots in this spell, scoring with two of his 16 attempts.
Most big-chance involvements, last four Gameweeks
| Player | Shots in box | BC | BC created | BC inv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks | 14 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Schade | 10 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Watkins | 10 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Thiago | 9 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Haaland | 13 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Who's facing the weakest defence?
An assessment of the worst sides for conceding big chances over the last four Gameweeks looks encouraging for four of the five players listed in the table above.
Watkins visits a Palace team who have conceded 13 big chances in that period, while allowing their opponents eight goals.
Schade and Thiago face a Sunderland side who have conceded 11 big chances in the same spell, indicating that the Black Cats have been very fortunate to concede only twice.
Meanwhile, Haaland's 75 per cent backers will be encouraged by Brighton's numbers. The Seagulls' 10 big chances conceded over Gameweeks 17-20 are the same as Bournemouth's, while their total of 44 shots in the box conceded is more than any other side.
Most big chances conceded, last four Gameweeks
| Club | Goals conc. | Clean sheets | Shots in box conc. | Big chances conc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 7 | 0 | 40 | 18 |
| West Ham | 9 | 0 | 41 | 16 |
| Crystal Palace | 8 | 0 | 42 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 7 | 0 | 36 | 13 |
| Burnley | 6 | 1 | 43 | 13 |
| Everton | 5 | 2 | 42 | 11 |
| Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 39 | 11 |
| Bournemouth | 10 | 0 | 33 | 10 |
| Brighton | 4 | 2 | 44 | 10 |
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
So, who is the best captain for Gameweek 21?
It's a close-run contest between Haaland and Watkins and there's a strong argument that the Villa man is the better option.
Nonetheless, the numbers show that Haaland is still getting plenty of chances to score and his recent failures are simply due to his own poor finishing.
When that factor is added to his huge ownership and Brighton's defensive frailties, Haaland is still the player most likely to reward you with the armband.