Which players offer both consistency and explosive potential in FPL?

With managers in Fantasy Premier League now having FIVE free transfers, The Scout delves into the data to reveal the players who most consistently earn points, and those who earn the biggest scores when they produce returns.

Fantasy managers often refer to players as “assets”, and the idea in this article is to use only two statistics - “success rate” and “points per match returned” - to visually represent their potential as investments in Fantasy.

“Success rate” (shown along the bottom of the graph) is simply the percentage of matches in which a player has earned a Fantasy “return”.  

For the purpose of this article, goals, assists and bonus points are regarded as a “return” across all positions in Fantasy. Defensive contribution points apply to all outfield players, while clean sheets are exclusive to goalkeepers and defenders, because midfielders only get one point for a clean sheet.

In each of the graphics or graphs below, the further to the right a player appears, the more reliable they are. For example, among forwards, you can see that Erling Haaland (£15.0m) is furthest to the right because he has produced a return in more than 60 per cent of his matches - the highest percentage.

Each player's bubble size on the graph is also reflective of the number of matches in which they have produced a return. 

“Points per match returned” (shown on the left side of the graph) is the average FPL points tally that each player has scored in the matches where they have achieved one or more returns.

The higher up a player is on the graph, the more potential they have for huge hauls, rather than just a six-point score for an appearance and a goal.

Combining those two metrics, the ideal place to be in the graph is the top right-hand corner, as these are the players who offer both consistency AND big returns.

So, let's look at who ticks both boxes in each position. 

Who are the best forwards?

Starting with the forwards and going back to the graph above, the lack of consistent forwards is evident, with only five of them boasting a success rate over 40 per cent.

It’s very evident that Haaland is the gold standard. 

Manchester City’s frontman has been the most consistent player in his position, delivering a goal or an assist in 10 of his 15 matches, which equates to 66.7 per cent. Across those 10 matches, Haaland has amassed 112 points, an average of 11.2 points per match returned.

The graph also highlights the contrasting output of Nick Woltemade (£7.5m) and Igor Thiago (£7.0m).

Newcastle United's Woltemade is second only to Haaland in terms of consistency among forwards, despite only ranking eighth in that position for total points. Woltemade has produced a goal or an assist in seven of his 12 appearances – a 58.3 per cent success rate – since making his debut in Gameweek 4.

But as the graph also shows, Woltemade has struggled for big scores in Fantasy. He has averaged only 6.7 points across those seven successful outings and has yet to claim a double-figure haul.

While Brentford's Thiago has been slightly less reliable, we can see that he has a far higher points ceiling than the Newcastle star. The Brazilian has scored or assisted in eight of his 15 matches and claimed THREE double-figure hauls.

Essentially, Thiago has averaged 8.5 points per successful match this season.  

When you look at Brentford’s next three fixtures – at home to Leeds United and AFC Bournemouth, with a visit to bottom side Wolverhampton Wanderers in between – Thiago’s seasonal level of output indicates he could earn around 20 points in that spell. 

Most consistent forwards

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The graphic also helps to highlight why Chelsea's Joao Pedro (£7.3m) and Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.0m) have been sold in such high numbers in Gameweek 16 as managers look to restructure their squads with their five free transfers.

While both players have high ceilings when they produce returns, Joao Pedro and Mateta are only on a par with Brighton & Hove Albion's Danny Welbeck (£6.6m), West Ham United's Callum Wilson (£5.8m) and Burnley's Zian Flemming (£5.3m) in terms of reliability, with a lowly 33.3 per cent success rate.

West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) and Tottenham Hotspur’s Richarlison (£6.4m) are literally identical for output in the assessment, with the latter’s name obscured in the graphic.

Both have been successful in seven of their 15 appearances and have totalled 50 points in those contests, an average of 7.1 points. 

In Bowen’s case, one of those successful outings was in Gameweek 12 against Bournemouth, when he became the first and only forward in 2025/26 Fantasy to earn two points for his defensive contributions.

When you also consider his security of pitch-time, Bowen is making the strongest case to pick alongside Haaland and Thiago for managers who are looking to play a 3-4-3 formation.

Who are the best midfielders?

The introduction of defensive contributions this season has helped redefine the concept of what a “return” is in Fantasy.

In previous campaigns, managers viewed midfielders in the same way as forwards, with goals and assists being the best gauge of their potential.

But now, with two points earned for their defensive actions in a match, midfielders are proving far more reliable than forwards.

Whereas only three forwards have a better success rate than 50 per cent, as many as 16 midfielders have managed this feat.

Arsenal’s Declan Rice (£7.1m) and Sunderland’s Granit Xhaka (£5.2m) have been the most reliable midfielders to invest in this season, providing a return in 73.3 per cent of their 15 appearances.

Note: Antoine Semenyo's name is partly obscured at the top of the graph

Whereas Xhaka has collected 56 points from his 11 successful outings, Rice’s greater attacking potential has earned him 75 points. 

Essentially, Rice has rewarded you with a higher ceiling of 6.7 points in his successful matches, while Xhaka has ticked over with an average of 5.1.

The graph also helps managers to see at a quick glance that Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes (£9.1m) and Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes (£6.9m) have very similar profiles in terms of "success rate" and "points per match returned" this season. 

A delve into the data reveals that the pair have both averaged 7.7 points in the matches in which they have earned a return, with player each enjoying a success rate around the mid-60 per cent mark. 

Most consistent midfielders

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Along with Xhaka, Brighton’s Mats Wieffer (£4.9m) and Nottingham Forest’s Elliot Anderson (£5.4m) have been consistent, low-ceiling assets thanks to their defensive contributions.

They are among an elite band of seven midfielders who have produced a return in over 60 per cent of their appearances this season.

As you can see from the table above, Anderson, Wieffer and Xhaka have all averaged just over five points per successful outing.

Who are the best goalkeepers and defenders?

Defenders have been the most consistent players by a huge margin in 2025/26.

Thanks in part to their defensive contributions, a massive 42 of them have produced a return in at least 50 per cent of their matches. 

By contrast, only three goalkeepers have achieved this feat, along with the three forwards and 16 midfielders mentioned above. 

Bournemouth's Marcos Senesi (£5.0m) and Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) lead the way at the back, mainly as a result of their defensive contributions, with success rates of 92.9 and 86.7 per cent respectively.

But the lack of clean sheets on offer at both clubs means that, even when they are successful, the pair have had very low ceilings. 

By looking at the four top-scoring defenders this season - Palace pair Marc Guehi (£5.2m) and Daniel Munoz (£6.1m), Chelsea's Trevoh Chalobah (£5.3m) and Arsenal's injured Gabriel - you can see they all fit a similar profile for both statistics on the graph. 

All four have a success rate over 70 per cent and have averaged over seven points per match returned.

Contrast that with the fifth top-scoring defender Jurrien Timber (£6.5m), who has clearly been more of a risk/reward type of player.

The Gunners' right-back has blanked in seven of his 15 outings, which equates to a 53.3 per cent success rate, so his name only just appears on the left side of the graph. But when he returns, he scores big in Fantasy, with an average of 8.6 points per match in those contests. 

Arsenal's David Raya (£6.0m) has been the most consistent goalkeeper in the first 15 Gameweeks, collecting eight clean sheets. 

Indeed, he is the only 'keeper to exceed a 50 per cent success rate, with Man City's Gianluigi Donnarumma (£5.7m) and Newcastle's Nick Pope managing exactly one shutout per two appearances.

So, who's best across all positions?

The final graph shows all of the players in 2025/26 Fantasy who have a minimum success rate of 60 per cent and have returned in at least seven matches.

By combining all the positions together here, there are some obvious takeaways.

Haaland's peerless potential for huge hauls is very much in evidence, with a runaway 11.2 points per match returned.

However, it's two defenders - Gabriel and Munoz - who run him the closest with 9.5 and 8.2 respectively.

Both those defenders have bettered midfield pair Fernandes and Guimaraes for success rate AND points per match returned, an indication that we shouldn't be overlooking big-hitters at the back with our captaincy decisions. 

Meanwhile, although Rice is joint-top for success rate in midfield, centre-backs Guehi and Chalobah have bettered him for this statistic and for average points per successful match.

At a glance, Everton centre-back Michael Keane (£4.6m) also boasts a near-identical profile to the Arsenal midfielder here, underlining the host of options in defence right now. 

The table below highlights the 14 players in the graph above who, along with their minimum 60 per cent success rate, have also averaged at least 6.0 points per successful appearance.

Arsenal's Bukayo Saka (£10.2m) is the most notable addition to the analysis, joining Haaland, Rice, Fernandes and Guimaraes among the five midfielders and forwards.

Crystal Palace remarkably supply four of the nine defenders, with Maxence Lacroix (£5.1m) and Tyrick Mitchell (£5.0m) impressing alongside Guehi and Munoz. 

FPL managers certainly have plenty of enticing options as they consider how to use their five free transfers.

Most reliable players for points hauls