Football writer Alex Keble looks at how Aston Villa, Chelsea and Manchester City have reined in Arsenal and suggests there are still plenty of twists and turns to come in an enthralling battle for the Premier League crown.
The Premier League title race is never won in the first few months of the season – and yet we keep falling for the same old mistake.
Five matches in, Liverpool were crowned as champions-elect. They now languish all the way down in ninth, their chances of retaining the title seemingly non-existent.
Only a few matchweeks later, Arsenal were widely anointed, only for a tough month – culminating in defeat at Villa Park on Saturday – to open up the title race again.
Aston Villa's 2-1 victory against the Gunners moved them to within three points of Mikel Arteta's side and allowed Manchester City to cut that lead to just two points later on the same day.
We never learn. The 2025/26 Premier League campaign is only 15 rounds old, meaning 23 more to go – or 69 points up for grabs - and a quick glance at the form table from the past five rounds tells us just how quickly things can shift:
Premier League form table - last five matches
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
| Aston Villa | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
| Everton | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| Newcastle | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| Crystal Palace | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| Nottingham Forest | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| Arsenal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 8 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
| Brighton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| Brentford | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
Scroll horizontally to view full table
Villa have climbed from nowhere to put themselves in the conversation with three of last season's top four: Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea.
Here’s a look at how those four clubs are faring in the title race – and the twists and turns that we might see this winter.
Arsenal’s injuries are a concern – but their greatest enemy is themselves
Picking up only eight points from five matches is making some Arsenal supporters nervous, especially when Man City are breathing down the leaders' necks again, having bested them in two previous title challenges.
None of the results from those five matches were particularly noteworthy in isolation, however, as Arsenal navigated a tough set of games.
For that reason alone, Arsenal should be able to continue playing with confidence and steel and, relying on a newly deepened squad, continue on the trajectory that has most pundits making them favourites.
But two things stand in the way of that analysis. First, injuries are threatening to make things a whole lot harder.
William Saliba’s injury towards the end of 2022/23 significantly derailed Arsenal's challenge in that season. This time, both Saliba and Gabriel are spending time on the sidelines and a further injury, to backup centre-half Cristhian Mosquera, meant the Gunners' back four in their defeat at Villa had a very unfamiliar look.
Serious injuries in attack have so far been covered by squad depth, but if things continue like this at the other end, Arsenal might be in trouble.
The second issue is psychological. Arsenal have not won the Premier League title in 20 years, and twice already they have seen Man City accelerate away from them.
The vast majority of first-time Premier League title winners, or winners for the first time in a generation, only get over the line by building up a healthy lead before the run-in, meaning no nervousness, no pressure under which to buckle.
Blackburn Rovers, Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool: all of them did it by going way out in front. The only notable exception, Man City in 2012/13, required an epochal, Sergio Aguero-inspired injury-time comeback to avoid catastrophe.
Will Arsenal need something similar? A few weeks ago it looked like they could race clear and ease the tension. All of a sudden, that seems unlikely.
Arsenal's next PL fixtures
Man City have history, but attacking riches could be undermined at the back
To serial winners like Man City, a two-point deficit is nothing.
In 2020/21, they had 20 points after 12 games in mid-December, eight points shy of leaders Liverpool, only to win the title at a canter. Two seasons later, in 2022/23, Man City were five points off Arsenal – who had a game in hand – as late as February, only to lift the trophy yet again in May.
Pep Guardiola has a history of coming back from positions of supposed weakness, primarily because he is particularly skilled at rotating the team in autumn, staying close enough to the league leaders, and then using fresh legs to put a string of wins together at the business end of the season.
This is quite a different Man City, mind. They are more attack-minded and individualistic than at any other point in the Guardiola era, although that has given them a star-studded attacking line-up.
Jeremy Doku has been sensational, Erling Haaland is hitting new highs, Phil Foden is back to his best, and Rayan Cherki looks like he’s about to explode into life. The goals provided by these four could be enough to inspire one of those classic Man City winning streaks.
On recent evidence, Man City will need all those goals to counter-balance some defensive issues.
Fulham’s four goals and Leeds United’s two showed the downsides of a more open, stretched, and attacking Man City setup, leaving pundits wondering if Guardiola’s team lacks the solidity and suffocating qualities of years gone by.
But we always say that when Man City are faltering at this time of year, even in seasons when they go on to lift the title. In 2020/21, they conceded 18 goals from their first 12 games (1.5 per match) and in 2022/23, they conceded 53 goals in 21 games (2.5 per match), a higher rate than this year’s 35 in 15 (2.3 per match).
There’s a flaw in the logic of any Man City critique that acknowledges Guardiola’s team have come back from worse positions before, while arguing that the current crop just don’t look up to it. Well, of course they don’t. That’s the nature of bad form; it looks bad.
Man City will trust themselves to find their rhythm, tighten up at the back, and catch Arsenal. They’ve done it many times before.
Guardiola said as much after the international break in November.
"Now the real, real season starts," he said. "And the important thing is to be there, to be close and, after that, arrive at the end of the season with the chance that we can fight for it."
Man City's next PL fixtures
Villa have entered the race, but expectations are rightly low
Emiliano Buendia's late winner in front of the Holte End was one of the greatest moments of the Unai Emery era so far, and, considering Villa boldly went all-in for the winner, it is right that pundits start to ask whether they can continue closing the gap to Arsenal.
Villa's run of nine wins from 10 Premier League matches is their best sequence since 1919.
Villa's last 10 Premier League results
| Opp. | Result | Opp. | Result |
| Fulham (H) | 3-1 (W) | Bournemouth (H) | 4-0 (W) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley (H) | 2-1 (W) | Leeds (A) | 2-1 (W) |
| Spurs (A) | 2-1 (W) | Wolves (H) | 1-0 (W) |
| Man City (H) | 1-0 (W) | Brighton (A) | 4-3 (W) |
| Liverpool (A) | 2-0 (L) | Arsenal (H) | 2-1 (W) |
Remarkably, they’ve done it without Ollie Watkins or Morgan Rogers being near their best. So, as these two begin to find form, it is conceivable that Villa still have gears to move into.
Emery doesn’t think so, however.
"You know how I think. Keep humble," read Emery’s match programme notes before the Arsenal game. "Words of the title race are empty until April or May.
"These are headlines I dislike. Many people who put us there now were thinking in August that we were a finished team."
Most likely, this is just a purple patch and Villa – only six points ahead of seventh-place Everton – will be fighting for a UEFA Champions League place in 2026.
Villa's next PL fixtures
Are Chelsea already too far back to challenge?
Chelsea were considered to be one of the main contenders until very recently, but it is hard to see a way back for Enzo Maresca's side after they collected just two points from their last three matches.
They are eight points off the pace. More importantly, they have just 25 points from 15 games, six points fewer than at this stage last season and only six points more than the first 15 matches in 2023/24 under Mauricio Pochettino, widely seen as disastrous.
Chelsea are a youthful side who, with significant injuries in defence, often lack the killer instinct in the final third.
Maresca, however, is more optimistic, pointing to how compressed the league table looks.
"It's so long away - too many games until February, March - that it's difficult [to say if Chelsea are in the title race]," he said at the weekend. "But again, the table is so close, tight. You win two games in a row and you are there."
Unfortunately for Chelsea, their fixtures look too difficult for such a sequence this month.
Chelsea's next PL fixtures
Christmas schedule suggests Man City could be top by January
Chelsea's tough run in their next five matches – against Everton (H), Newcastle United (A), Villa (H), AFC Bournemouth (H) and Man City (A) – makes it likely they could fall further away.
Arsenal’s list isn’t much better. After hosting Wolverhampton Wanderers, they play Everton (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Villa (H), Bournemouth (A) and Liverpool (H), a tough festive period that hands Man City the advantage.
Man City’s run of Crystal Palace (A), West Ham United (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (H) and Brighton (A), means almost all of their tough games are at the Etihad Stadium, where Guardiola's men are imperious.
This all points to Man City climbing to the top. But making predictions is a fool's errand. A fortnight from now, everything could be turned on its head once again.