Why Man City's title rivals will fear De Bruyne's return

Alex Keble takes a look at what Kevin De Bruyne's return can mean for Manchester City's title ambitions.

Player analysis: Kevin De Bruyne

Throughout the first half of Man City’s stuttering 2023/24 campaign a shadow has loomed large over the Premier League. Their rivals have tried not to think about it. Pundits excited by a five-way title challenge have pretended it wasn’t there.

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But we all knew this day was coming. De Bruyne is back – and just like that, Man City are transformed.

De Bruyne might not start at Newcastle United on Saturday, yet that doesn’t mean he won’t play a major part. He is raring to go.

Within 17 minutes of coming off the bench in their comfortable 5-0 FA Cup third-round victory over Huddersfield Town last weekend, he had notched his first assist since the Community Shield, driving to the right-hand byline and chipping a neat cross to the back post for Jeremy Doku to score.

It was an ominous moment for the rest of the Premier League. Those crosses, that unique creativity, is something Man City have been missing all season.

Alvarez & Foden tried to fill KDB’s boots

Man City have won 40 points from the first 19 matches of this season, which is the third time they have had 40 points or less at the halfway stage since Pep Guardiola’s arrival. They didn’t win the title in either of the previous two, coming third in Guardiola’s 2016/17 debut season with 78 points and second in 2019/20, earning 81 points.

No matter what other problems are afflicting Man City, from a post-Treble hangover to full-back issues and a summer downgrade in central midfield, clearly De Bruyne has been missed.

Julian Alvarez, and more recently Phil Foden, have been playing in an advanced midfield position across the season, and across pretty much every key creative statistic, Foden and Alvarez haven’t adequately replaced De Bruyne.

De Bruyne, Alvarez & Foden comparison*

*Per 90 minutes

This hasn’t translated into a notable downturn in output, with Man City’s Expected Goals (xG) per game of 1.97 this season barely below the 2.12 of 2022/23. They are also scoring at about the same rate: 2.36 per game this campaign compared with 2.47 last term.

But it isn’t about the overall difference. Rather, De Bruyne’s absence is felt in those thorniest of matches when Man City are off form or struggling to break down a deep block.

Tellingly, in Man City’s three Premier League defeats this season they have hit xG figures of 0.9, 0.5, and 0.6, against Wolverhampton Wanderers, Arsenal and Aston Villa respectively, whereas last season their xG in their four league losses were 1.0, 1.6, 0.6 and 1.3.

That’s an average of 1.13 xG per match, almost double the 0.67 average across the 2023/24 defeats.

Crosses & disruptive creativity to return

This gets to the heart of what De Bruyne offers. He is the one creative disruptor allowed in Guardiola’s immaculately-constructed tactical patterns; the one maverick player who keeps opponents on their toes by going against the grain.

You need that unpredictability and creative ingenuity against a stubborn defence, particularly on days when Guardiola’s tactics haven’t quite worked.

You also require a playmaker who knows when to move through the gears and when, or how, to take advantage of the rare moments when that defensive blockade is pulled out of position.

Again, in this regard De Bruyne is an outlier at Man City. He is a far more direct player than Foden or Alvarez, hitting longer passes or bursting in straight lines at the right moment.

Compared to last season, Man City’s fast breaks have fallen by half from 0.58 to 0.26 per game, while their progressive passes have slumped from 54.6 to 49.3 per game.

De Bruyne knows when to attack directly, when to split a defensive line or spread the play with a sweeping pass that is effective precisely because it isn’t usually sanctioned by the manager.

Guardiola hypnotises the opposition with his finely-tuned rhythm. Once lulled to sleep, De Bruyne goes for the kill.

Often that killer ball is a cross. Indeed, Man City’s crosses are down from 19.5 to 16.5 per match, which is largely due to De Bruyne’s absence. Last season his 226 crosses ranked fifth in the Premier League. In 2023/24 Man City’s most prolific crosser is Alvarez, with 99, who sits 12th in the division.

Winners and losers: Haaland & Foden

One player in particular will be delighted to see those crosses return.

Erling Haaland has scored two goals in his last four outings, which for him constitutes a dip in form.

He is scoring at a rate of 0.97 goals per game, down from 1.17 in his debut season, but more pertinently he has only found the net in eight different Premier League matches.

Haaland is struggling against teams packing the penalty area and slowing the team down, scoring only in twos or threes when things are easier for Guardiola’s side.

And like Man City as a whole, he misses having De Bruyne to shake things up.

Haaland has received considerably fewer passes (15.4 per match, down from 18.9), while he touches the ball less with an average of 20.2 per match, down from 24.8 in 2022/23.

Numbers on the rise

These numbers should go up now that De Bruyne is looking for him. Last season De Bruyne provided eight assists for Haaland. In 2023/24, Alvarez and Bernardo Silva, with two apiece, are the biggest providers for Haaland.

The one possible negative about De Bruyne’s return is how Foden might be affected.

Foden has always played like a No 10 and it has long been felt that De Bruyne accidentally gets in the way of the 23-year-old flourishing in his best position. Over the last few weeks, we’ve had some proof.

His last six starts in all competitions, beginning with the 2-1 win against Luton Town in early December, have been in the No 10 role. Foden has scored three goals and assisted three more from that position.

But to worry about Foden’s involvement is to be overly pessimistic. He can still contribute plenty, especially if Guardiola chooses to play him alongside De Bruyne in midfield, much in the way Ilkay Gundogan did last season.

For Man City fans it can only be good news. Their talisman and captain has returned, ready for the spring, when Guardiola’s team – currently only five points off leaders Liverpool with a game in hand – typically go on a frightening winning streak.

The chances of that happening have just increased significantly. Liverpool, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur beware. Things are about to change.