Why set-pieces could be decisive in Merseyside derby

Tom Hancock looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 9.

Liverpool v Everton

Everton’s away record against Liverpool in the Premier League era is famously bad: the Toffees have won only three Merseyside derbies at Anfield since 1992 – and only one in the last 24 years.

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EVE

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That sole Everton success on the red side of Stanley Park this century was a 2-0 victory under Carlo Ancelotti in February 2021 – but unfortunately for their fans, it came smack-bang in the middle of lockdown, so none of them could be in the stands to see it.

This time around, though – after successive 2-0 defeats at Anfield – Sean Dyche might just hold the key to Everton turning Liverpool over in front of a packed house.

See: Where Everton would be if they matched their xG

Dyche had Burnley regularly punching above their weight in the Premier League, partly by excelling from set-pieces – especially corners – and his current Everton side have been similarly effective from dead-ball situations.

Everton lead the division for goals scored from set-pieces this season, with five, and rank second for Expected Goals (xG) from set-pieces with, 4.33.

Most set-piece goals and xG 2023/24

This is where they could really hurt Liverpool on Saturday, because the Reds have been vulnerable from dead-ball scenarios during the early part of 2023/24.

In their last match before the international break, Brighton & Hove Albion equalised this way in a 2-2 draw.

When Solly March’s inswinging free-kick reached the six-yard box, Andrew Robertson should have cleared the danger with ease but instead left the ball entirely, allowing Lewis Dunk a simple finish from close range.

At the time, it was suggested by some that Robertson froze, having seen team-mate Joel Matip score a costly stoppage-time own goal with his weak foot in Liverpool's 2-1 loss at Tottenham Hotspur the weekend before.

Perhaps Matip’s match-deciding moment of misfortune did play on Robertson’s mind, but there appears to be a less psychological explanation for his error - that he was adjusting his body position in order to try and clear with his stronger left foot.

Regardless, Jurgen Klopp will not have been pleased with what he saw from one of his most senior defenders as Liverpool dropped two points and went into the international break three points behind league leaders Spurs rather than one.

The title race

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Arsenal ARS	35	+57	80
2	Man City MCI	34	+50	79
3	Liverpool LIV	35	+41	75
4	Aston Villa AVL	35	+21	67

Full table

Lack of organisation?

While Dunk’s goal was only the second Liverpool have conceded from a set-piece in the Premier League this season, the Reds do rank among the weakest teams when it comes to defending dead-ball situations.

Only four sides – bottom two Sheffield United and AFC Bournemouth, newcomers Luton Town, and West Ham United – have given up more set-piece xG than Liverpool’s 3.13 this season.

Most xG conceded from set-pieces 2023/24

That figure isn’t overly surprising given the Reds’ lack of organisation at times when defending set-pieces.

The first Premier League goal Liverpool conceded this season – Axel Disasi’s equaliser for Chelsea in a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on the opening weekend – stemmed from a failure to re-organise and deal with a second ball after a corner.

Such sloppiness has been a worrying theme of the Reds’ early campaign.  They went 1-0 down to Brighton after a lapse in concentration by Alexis Mac Allister against his former club, while slip-ups by Trent Alexander-Arnold were capitalised on by Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively.

If disorganisation continues to permeate their set-piece defending amid the feverish intensity of the Merseyside derby, Liverpool could find themselves in a spot of bother.

That feels especially pertinent with Dominic Calvert-Lewin back fit and firing. No current Premier League player has scored more headed goals in the competition than the England striker’s 19 since he joined Everton in August 2016, a total that accounts for more than a third of his league goals for the club.

Current players with 10+ headed PL goals

*since 31 August 2016

There is something of a flip side though. No Premier League team have conceded more set-piece goals than Everton in the first two months of the 2023/24 campaign. Their total of four puts them level with four other sides.

However, the Toffees are keeping the quality of chances they give up from dead-ball situations relatively low, with their 2.70 Expected Goals Against (xGA) from set-pieces putting them around the middle of the division.

With the exception of their 2-1 home defeat to Luton earlier this month – when the visitors scored from a corner and a free-kick – Everton have generally looked robust enough at defending them.

Nonetheless, they’ll know they can’t underestimate the Reds’ own dead-ball threat. With Alexander-Arnold producing pinpoint deliveries for significant aerial threats such as Virgil van Dijk and Diogo Jota, who is deceptively effective in such situations, free-kicks and corners are always a realistic route to goal for Klopp’s men.

Indeed, only Everton have found the net more frequently from such circumstances than Liverpool so far this season. The Reds have scored four set-piece goals, putting them on a par with the rest of the current Premier League top four of Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester City.

Big strength for both clubs

If we go back further, the set-piece threat of both Everton and Liverpool comes into sharper focus.

Since Dyche's appointment in January, no team that have been in the Premier League in both 2022/23 and 2023/24 have mustered more shots from set-pieces than Everton.

Only Man City have had more such attempts on target, while only Liverpool and Newcastle have accumulated more set-piece xG than Everton’s 25.7, which equates to 0.98 per match.

However, Everton haven’t been all that clinical from dead-ball scenarios, scoring only seven goals across that period. Instead it’s Liverpool who lead the way, finding the net 12 times from set-pieces in the same period.

Teams with 10+ goals from set-pieces*

*Since 30 Jan 2023, excluding relegated/promoted clubs

Both Merseyside teams can both carry a notable set-piece threat this weekend, but Liverpool may need to be the warier of the two on this occasion.

Dyche knows what it takes to engineer an unlikely victory at Anfield, as evidenced by his 1-0 triumph with Burnley in January 2021.

It was a result which ended Liverpool’s 69-match home Premier League unbeaten run and triggered an extraordinary streak of six straight home defeats in all competitions, the aforementioned Everton win included.

Sparking such a downturn in form again seems rather unlikely, but Dyche will no doubt look to harbour the same kind of siege mentality that formed the foundations of that victory and so many of Burnley’s top-flight successes against the big boys during his long tenure.

That, of course, includes trying to keep things tight from opposition free-kicks and corners – and aiming to exploit Liverpool’s fragility from those scenarios at the other end.

Tom Hancock is a freelance writer specialising in data (@Tom_Hancock_)

Also in this series

Part 2: Spurs' high press can reap more rewards against Fulham