Feature

What's at stake on 2022/23's final day?

28 May 2023

Race for Europe. Fight to stay up. Individual honours. There is something to play for in every match

A Premier League season like no other reaches a thrilling finale on Sunday, and there is still so much to play for in the final-day fixtures.

While the title and UEFA Champions League and Europa League places have been decided, there are still three clubs fighting for a Europa Conference League spot and three more battling for ONE remaining place to avoid relegation.

Indeed, five fixtures will have implications in the European and relegation pictures, while there are club and individual honours and records on the line in three others.

Who will stay up?

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
17	Everton EVE	38	-23	36
18	Leicester City LEI	38	-17	34
19	Leeds United LEE	38	-30	31

Everton are the best placed and know a win will guarantee they stay up and remain as one of the six clubs who have been ever-present in every Premier League season.

Crucially, Leicester City and Leeds United are both two points behind, so no matter what, they each have to win to have any chance of securing safety.

They will try to take inspiration from the SEVEN teams who have stayed up despite starting the final day in the bottom three, including Leeds themselves last season.

Fight for Europe

There are also three teams battling for one final spot in the race for European qualification.

Aston Villa know a win against Brighton & Hove Albion will secure them seventh place and a spot in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Tottenham Hotspur are one point behind and will have a big say in what happens on the final day, given they travel to relegation-threatened Leeds. Brentford have to beat champions Manchester City, whom they defeated away in the reverse fixture, to have any chance of qualifying for Europe.

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
7	Aston Villa AVL	38	+5	61
8	Tottenham Hotspur TOT	38	+7	60
9	Brentford BRE	38	+12	59

Individual awards

As well as for the clubs, there is a lot on the line for the players themselves.

Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne are on course to win the Castrol Golden Boot and Playmaker awards respectively, given they are eight goals and five assists respectively ahead of their nearest challengers.

David De Gea has already been confirmed as the Golden Glove award winner.

Record goals total

We are also on course for a record number of goals in a Premier League season.

The record for a season of 380 matches is 1,072, set in 2018/19. We are 21 goals behind that total, and if the season's present rate of 2.841 goals per match is maintained on the final day, 2022/23 would reach 1,079 goals.

History suggests we are likely to see the goals flow, given in all but one of the last 20 seasons, more goals were scored on the final day than the average across the rest of the campaign.

See: The numbers behind this season's goals

Something to watch for in every match

In fact, there is something to play for in all 10 matches kicking off simultaneously at 16:30 BST, so make sure to tune in for a defining final day.

ARS

5-0

WOL

Arsenal are guaranteed to finish second, their best position since 2015/16. If they win, they will equal their club record of 26 wins in a Premier League season.

You'd back them to get it, too, given they have the highest win rate of any team on the final day (70%) and have won each of their last 11.

AVL

2-1

BHA

Victory for Villa will qualify them for the Europa Conference League, their first appearance in European competition since the 2010/11 Europa League qualifying rounds.

They have won their last three Premier League matches v Brighton, and are on a six-match winning run at home in the PL, scoring 12 goals and conceding only once.

BRE

1-0

MCI

Having won the title, Man City will hope to warm up for their FA Cup and UEFA Champions League finals as they bid to become the first team since Manchester United in 1998/99 to win the treble.

Pep Guardiola said in his pre-match press conference that “we need to keep our rhythm” and he will “play the game as strong as possible", meaning Haaland could get a chance to add to his record-breaking 36 goals and get his hands on the Golden Boot award. If he scores or assists, he will also break Thierry Henry's record total of 44 goal involvements in a single PL campaign.

De Bruyne, meanwhile, is set to win his third Playmaker award. He is five clear of Bukayo Saka and Mohamed Salah, and if he gets an assist he will equal Nolberto Solano's record total of seven in final-day matches.

Brentford, meanwhile, have the chance to do a PL double over the champions. If they do so, and Villa's and Spurs' results go their way, they could jump up two positions and secure a place in the UEFA Conference League.

CHE

1-1

NEW

Chelsea are guaranteed to finish with their lowest-ever points tally and could yet drop to 14th, which would equal their lowest finishing position. They will hope to avoid that and end on a high ahead of a new manager taking charge for 2023/24. Will that be Mauricio Pochettino, as reports suggest?

Newcastle United have already secured a return to the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2002/03. They will now try to leapfrog Man Utd into third place on the final day.

There is a record in sight for Kieran Trippier, too. If the Newcastle captain creates six chances, he will equal Leighton Baines for the most ever created by a defender in a PL season, with 116.

CRY

1-1

NFO

Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest are both already planning for 2023/24, but the Eagles know a win will see them finish top of the bottom half, in 11th and ahead of Chelsea. Palace have never lost their final match of a top-flight season when playing at home (W7 D3).

Taiwo Awoniyi, meanwhile, could become the first Forest player to score in four consecutive top-flight appearances since Stan Collymore, all the way back in 1995.

EVE

1-0

BOU

If Everton win they know they will stay up and relegate Leicester and Leeds.

But they have lost three straight PL matches to AFC Bournemouth, conceding three goals on each occasion, and have picked up only one point across their last six final-day fixtures.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, are on a bit of a roll away from home this season. A win would equal their club record of six on the road in a PL season.

LEE

1-4

TOT

All eyes will be on Leeds v Spurs, which has the most riding on it.

Leeds, in 19th, need to win and hope Everton and Leicester slip up. Indeed, their inferior goal difference puts them at a further disadvantage, so they will hope for a bit of a miracle, much like last season when they climbed out of the relegation zone on the final day.

What bodes well for them is that they are final-day experts, having won three in a row. Indeed, as a top-flight side, Leeds have lost their final league match in only one of their last 15 campaigns.

Defeat for Spurs would ensure no European football for them next season, for the first time since 2009/10. Indeed, it would mean they finish no higher than eighth, which would be their lowest finishing position since 2008/09. They will hope to take advantage of Leeds' need to win and hope Villa, a point and a place above them, slip up and give up a place in the Europa Conference League.

Among their ranks is Harry Kane, who has scored on the final day in each of the last five campaigns. Overall, he's scored a competition-high nine goals on the final day. If he nets on Sunday, Kane will equal Andrew Cole's record of scoring in 26 Premier League matches in a season.

LEI

2-1

WHU

Leicester have the best goal difference of the three teams trying to secure safety, so they would stay up if they win and Everton and Leeds fail to win.

If they lose, they would be the second side to be relegated from the Premier League having previously won it, after Blackburn Rovers.

MUN

2-1

FUL

Man Utd secured a return to the Champions League by beating Chelsea on Thursday. They just need to match Newcastle's result at Chelsea to ensure a third-place finish.

Fulham are already guaranteed their first top-half finish since 2011/12.

SOU

4-4

LIV

This will be Southampton's last PL match for at least a season. But will they go out on a high? History suggest it's unlikely, given the team finishing bottom of the table have won their final match in only one of the last 20 campaigns, when Sheffield United beat Burnley in 2020/21.

Liverpool cannot finish higher or lower than fifth but their departing midfielder, James Milner, could join an elite group of Premier League players as he waves goodbye.

If Milner plays it will be his 16th appearance on the final day of a Premier League season, the joint-most in the competition's history, joining Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, Jamie Carragher and Gareth Barry.