Football writer Ben Bloom takes a detailed look at the last seven games of the upcoming Premier League season and analyses which clubs have the trickiest run-in.
The start of the 2025/26 Premier League season is nearly upon us and the release of the fixture list presents fans with the tantalising prospect of everything to come.
Can Liverpool launch a successful title defence? Will Manchester City bounce back from a disappointing campaign? How will the promoted sides fare as they bid to avoid a Championship return?
All will start becoming clearer over the coming months, but there are few more crucial periods than The Run In, when trophies, European spots and relegation will be decided.
Here, using Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) - a complex algorithm developed by Fantasy Premier League experts - we analyse clubs' final seven matches of next season.
From that, we can assess which teams – on paper, at least – have the easiest end to the season and who might fear The Run In.
Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) for Matchweeks 32 to 38
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Tough finishes for Fulham, Bournemouth and Chelsea
It is impossible to know what the table will look like following the final international break of the 2025/26 season next March, but one team unlikely to relish The Run In that follows is Fulham.
According to the FDR, Marco Silva’s side have statistically the toughest final seven fixtures of all top-flight clubs, which includes daunting trips to Anfield and Emirates Stadium to face last season’s top two teams.
There is little respite from the tricky games, with matches against Brentford, Aston Villa, AFC Bournemouth and Newcastle United – all of whom finished in the top half of the table last season – as the season concludes.
While Fulham top the difficulty charts with an average FDR of 3.4, they are closely followed by Bournemouth and Chelsea, whose average FDR over The Run In is 3.3.
Andoni Iraola’s team are the sole Premier League side with three of their fixtures during The Run In scoring four or five on the FDR scale ranging from one (easiest) to five (hardest).
They face trips to Arsenal and Newcastle, as well as welcoming Man City in their penultimate game of the season.
In the space of six successive Matchweeks, Chelsea play top-eight clubs Man City, Brighton & Hove Albion, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, as well as both UEFA Europa League finalists Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.
Wolves and Leeds handed favourable endings
At the opposite end of the scale, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United appear to have the easiest tasks across The Run In, with neither club facing a single opponent that ranks higher than three on the FDR.
Wolves, who pulled clear of relegation concerns with six consecutive wins under Vitor Pereira last spring, are the only side to face four opponents rated two on the FDR: West Ham United, Leeds, Sunderland and then Burnley on the final day of the season.
Brighton, who finished eighth last season, are their sole top-half opponents.
Despite visits to Old Trafford and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – both of which score three on the FDR – promoted Leeds also face matches that score two against Wolves, Burnley and West Ham.
The only other club not to occupy a packed 2.9-3.1 average FDR cohort is Brighton, whose trip to St James’ Park is their one game to score four or more.
Fabian Hurzeler’s team have an FDR average of 2.7 over The Run In.
Recent champions' challenge
Liverpool and Man City, the only clubs to have won the Premier League over the last eight seasons, share an identical FDR average of 3.1 over The Run In.
Arne Slot could not have dreamed of a better start to his Liverpool tenure than winning the title last season.
The only top-half opponents his side face at the climax of the 2025/26 campaign are Chelsea and a challenging trip to Villa.
However, Liverpool are one of just two clubs (along with Sunderland) not to have a single matches rated two in the FDR across their last seven games.
Pep Guardiola’s City end their season with a visit from Villa, while they also play fellow UEFA Champions League clubs Chelsea and Arsenal at the start of The Run In.
Little to choose between Champions League chasers
The remaining clubs who spent the back end of the 2024/25 campaign targeting UEFA Champions League football – Arsenal, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Forest – all have near-identical tasks in terms of difficulty over The Run In.
The FDR for all four sides is either 2.9 or 3.0, with Man Utd and Spurs also sharing those marks.
Arsenal face what could be a hugely important visit to the Etihad Stadium in Matchweek 33, before finishing with – on paper – winnable games against Fulham, West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace.
It is the opposite equation for Villa, who have a run of more favourable games against Sunderland, Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur and Burnley, before ending the season by taking on Liverpool and Man City.
Also on 2025/26 fixtures
