Football writer Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 37.
Match analysis: Arsenal v Newcastle United
If Eddie Howe can mastermind a fourth successive victory over Mikel Arteta this season, Newcastle will leapfrog Arsenal and go into second place.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
36 | +46 | 83 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
36 | +33 | 68 |
| 3 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
36 | +23 | 66 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
37 | +20 | 66 |
| 5 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
37 | +9 | 66 |
Arsenal’s attack has been stopped effectively by the Magpies head coach and his players, failing to score in any of their three meetings across 2024/25.
At the other end of the pitch, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, and Jacob Murphy have been a real thorn in their side too.
What is the secret to Howe’s tactical success against Arsenal?
Going direct
Newcastle average 41.39 long passes per game, with 17.75 of them successful in finding a team-mate.
Those numbers are low across the Premier League, ranking 16th and 18th respectively.
Howe is not a great exponent of playing long distance passes, yet when facing Arsenal, he rips up that thought process and plays exceptionally direct.
In their Matchweek 10 encounter at St James’ Park Newcastle missed out Arsenal’s press by attempting 56 long passes, 26 of which found a team-mate.
Not only was that way above their norm, but it was also comparable with the numbers averaged by Everton this season, who are statistically the most direct top-flight team.
Newcastle's long passes compared 24/25
| v Arsenal (MW10) | Season average | Highest PL average (Everton) | |
| Long passes | 56 | 41.39 | 57.3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Successful long passes | 26 | 17.75 | 26.47 |
Long-balls helped create goals
Across both legs of the EFL Cup semi-final, and in that early November league meeting, Newcastle fashioned big opportunities from long-balls.
Isak’s brilliant header from a stunning Gordon cross decided the first meeting 1-0, but the goal was instigated by a high ball sent towards right-back Thomas Partey, with Isak picking up the second ball.
At Emirates Stadium in the first leg, a tie Howe’s men won 2-0, they opened the scoring from a Martin Dubravka free-kick aimed for the head of Sven Botman.
His flick found Murphy, who knocked the ball into Isak’s path to score.
And when they met for a third time in 2024/25, Newcastle scored once again from a ball that was knocked high and long from back to front.
On that occasion Isak won his duel, flicking the ball on for Gordon, who instantly played the Swede in behind with a return pass.
From Isak’s strike, Murphy netted from the rebound.
There is an onus on Arsenal to make improvements on Sunday afternoon as they have failed to properly deal with Howe’s direct tactical strategy on three separate occasions.
Arsenal know exactly what to expect, but can Arteta’s men cope better this time?
Trusting a rearguard action
Newcastle are happy to sacrifice the ball when they face the Gunners.
Across those three victories they made fewer than half the number of successful passes they averaged in Premier League action this season.
This is in part due to an increase in longer, less accurate balls, but also down to an acceptance that Arteta’s players can have the bulk of possession.
Their highest share was in the MW10 fixture and was just 36.1 per cent.
Newcastle's average possession v Arsenal 24/25
| Statistic | NEW 1-0 ARS (Nov) | NEW 2-0 ARS (Jan) | NEW 2-0 ARS (Feb) | NEW PL average |
| Possession | 36.10% | 30.50% | 31.70% | 50.88% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Successful passes | 200 | 189 | 129 | 378 |
| Passing accuracy | 69.20% | 73.30% | 63.50% | 83.51% |
Howe is happy to trust his defensive players to withstand any pressure that Arsenal apply.
They block off central passing lanes, working hard to knock Arteta’s players out of rhythm with their physicality – and they force Arsenal to put a stream of hopeful crosses into the box.
Newcastle's possession sacrifice and a deeper defensive line is a tactic which has worked repeatedly for Howe in this fixture, with the head coach aware that Arsenal’s intricate pass and move football needs to be nullified.
What does this look like on a defensive actions chalkboard?
Well, as you can see below, the Magpies backed off from their usually relentless press to focus on either regaining the ball inside their own half, or to repel crosses with clearances.
The three graphics here are from Newcastle’s first Premier League encounter with Arsenal, followed by the EFL Cup semi-final first leg then the EFL Cup semi-final second leg.
Each chalkboard highlights their clearances, tackles, interceptions, and ball recoveries.
Newcastle's defensive actions v Arsenal 24/25
*Scroll right to view each graphic
As seen above, Howe implemented a low block to stifle and frustrate Arsenal, recognising that their usual high press would be less effective against an Arsenal side comfortable in possession, and instead opted to pick and choose moments to pressure Arteta’s side.
On one of the few occasions Newcastle did look to win the ball in advanced areas, they scored in the return leg of the EFL Cup semi-final.
David Raya’s loose pass into Declan Rice saw him robbed, with Gordon netting from the loose ball.
Will Howe go with a back three?
Newcastle switched to a 3-4-2-1 last time out in a win against Chelsea, and there is every chance they will stick with that shape this Sunday.
In the absence of key midfielder Joelinton, it makes sense to play Sven Botman, Dan Burn and Fabian Schar together at the heart of their defence.
Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes certainly have the athleticism to handle playing as a midfield pair.
Interestingly, Howe did move to a back three with 25 minutes remaining in the EFL Cup semi-final first leg.
It is a cautious policy he stuck with for the second leg at St James’ Park; a match when Arsenal fired off just 11 shots with an Expected Goals (xG) of 0.77, despite enjoying 38 touches inside the box.
While 4-3-3 remains Howe’s preferred system, it would be a surprise if he uses that on Sunday.
Isak and Gordon: Chief tormentors
Arsenal must handle Isak and Gordon much better than they did in the previous three outings if they are to claim at least the point they need to guarantee a top-five finish.
Isak’s movement caused William Saliba a lot of problems, whether it was dropping into pockets to link play, or making sprints down the side channels.
His quality inside the penalty area also made Arteta’s side pay.
Winger Gordon has tormented Arsenal from both flanks in this campaign, providing a magnificent cross in the league fixture, and scoring in both legs of the semi-final.
Whether he is hugging the touchline or linking play from a more central position, the England international has caused numerous issues.
Highlights: Newcastle v Arsenal EFL Cup semi-final first leg
Set up perfectly
Arteta would like to think lessons have been learned, and we know his side will not lack motivation to gain an element of revenge this weekend.
Arsenal can surely avoid a fourth straight loss at the hands of Newcastle if they can improve on previous mistakes and show a more clinical edge.
They did miss 10 big chances across those three matches, when out-shooting Newcastle by an aggregate 44-26, so despite Howe’s impressive formula, the Magpies also rode their luck.
This really should be a fascinating end of season tussle.
