Football writer Alex Keble analyses why Mohamed Salah's quest to hit record-breaking numbers in the Premier League this season has slowed down in recent weeks.
Two months ago, Mohamed Salah looked set to obliterate Premier League records and produce, inarguably, the greatest individual season in the competition's history.
The Liverpool forward's brace against Southampton on 8 March took him to 27 goals and 17 assists in just 29 matches. That level of output put him on course to finish the season with 59 goal involvements (35 goals and 24 assists) and obliterate the Premier League record of 47, jointly held by Andrew Cole and Alan Shearer.
The Egyptian was also set to eclipse the record of 20 Premier League assists in a season, jointly held by Arsenal's Thierry Henry and Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne.
Then everything seemed to stop.
Salah has contributed just one goal and one assist in the seven Premier League matches since 8 March, far below our projections. This has left him short of both the goal involvements and assists records, by one and two respectively.
Salah's minutes per goal involvement (G or A) 24/25
| Premier League 24/25 | Goals | Assists | Mins per G or A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchweek 1-29 | 27 | 17 | 58.5 |
| Matchweek 30-36 | 1 | 1 | 312.0 |
"Hopefully I’m going to break [the goal involvements record] soon," Salah told Sky Sports, after helping Liverpool to secure the Premier League title on 27 April.
"I think I have one to go [to equal it]. It’s something pushing me forward to just keep going and keep working hard."
Here, we look at the numbers to investigate why Salah has slowed down.
Finishing has become less ruthless
Salah's goalscoring has fallen off. The data below shows this is caused by less accurate finishing and chances becoming scarcer.
Salah attacking stats PL 24/25
| MW 1-29 | Per 90 | MW 30-36 |
| 0.94 | Goals | 0.14 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots | 2.2 |
| 1.9 | Shots on target | 0.4 |
| 1.3 | Big chances | 1.0 |
| 0.77 | xG | 0.29 |
Notably, Salah’s Expected Goals (xG) is almost a third of what it was, yet the number of big chances presented to him is roughly the same.
In other words, the data reveals that Salah is turning a big chance into a low xG shot.
There is further data to back this up, and it’s stark.
Salah shot accuracy and chance conversion rates PL 24/25
| Per 90 | Shot accuracy % | Conversion rate % | Big-chance conversion rate % | xGOT |
| MW 1-29 | 67.2% | 25.5% | 58.3% | 0.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW 30-36 | 28.3% | 6.7% | 0% | 0.05 |
There are some remarkable numbers in there.
Salah has failed to score from a single big chance in this period (0%), but more tellingly, his Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) – which measures xG after the shot is taken, and therefore where it goes on the goalmouth – has dramatically reduced.
This tells us that his goal drought has nothing to do with better goalkeeping, and only a little to do with how many shots he is taking.
Instead, Salah simply isn’t shooting as accurately and isn’t converting the big chances that continue to fall his way.
Team-mates aren’t finishing his chances
Salah doesn't take the blame when it comes to his assists rate falling.
He is still creating chances for his team-mates at about the same frequency as he was earlier in the season.
Salah's assists and chances created PL 24/25
| MW 1-29 | Per 90 | MW 30-36 |
| 0.59 | Assists | 0.14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4 | Chances created | 2.3 |
| 0.73 | Big chances created | 0.72 |
| 0.25 | Expected Assists (xA) | 0.23 |
| 25% | % Chances created resulting in assist |
6% |
What jumps out here is that across the first 29 Matchweeks of the campaign, 25 per cent of the chances Salah created were being scored.
That does not mean Salah was putting it on a plate for his team-mates, but rather that they were finishing exceptionally well - something they are now doing less often.
Salah was getting 0.59 assists per match from 0.25 expected assists, effectively over-performing by double.
Indeed, his total Expected Assists (xA) for the season is 8.57, yet Salah has 18 assists to his name.
When a player over-performs on xG it can be explained by great finishing, but if a player hits assist numbers well above their xA, it means they are benefiting from someone else doing the over-performing.
That’s true for Salah, too. Note how many of his assists in Matchweeks 1-29 were converted from relatively far out.
Salah's goal assists Matchweeks 1-29
Blue stars: assists
Since then, Salah has only set up one goal, a magnificent outside-of-the-boot pass to give Luis Diaz a chance he could not miss against West Ham United.
Salah's assist for Diaz v West Ham
That’s what it takes for Salah to get an assist to his name these days. The easy assists, the simple passes converted into assists by in-form team-mates, have disappeared.
Deeper positions are another factor
Salah’s assists and goals might also be drying up as he drops a little deeper, as suggested by the below heat maps which show where on the pitch he takes his touches of the ball.
Salah heat map Matchweeks 1-29
Salah heat map Matchweeks 30-36
Here, we return to the original explanation. Salah might be shooting with less accuracy and his team-mates might be too, but he is also less often in dangerous positions as Liverpool wind down their season.
Arne Slot's men have not looked quite as urgent in their attacking play now that the title is sewn up.
Their possession share has risen from 57 per cent to 59.9 per cent, while their possessions won in the final third have dropped from 4.7 per 90 to 3.9 per 90.
Brighton match might signal a return to form
Monday’s match at Brighton & Hove Albion might change all that. Fabian Hurzeler’s side often get caught in a manic end-to-end game of the sort that could entice Liverpool out – and could suit Salah.
Salah has 10 goals and six assists in 15 Premier League matches against Brighton.
If he can produce two more of either at the Amex Stadium, then he will break the goal-involvements record with a game to spare.
But even if the Egyptian also needs Liverpool's final match, against Crystal Palace at Anfield, to get there, it would put forward the case that we are indeed witnessing the greatest individual season in Premier League history.
