Teams with the worst defences to target over final two Gameweeks

The Scout assesses the team defensive data to identify the best attackers to transfer in for the final two Gameweeks of 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League.

Over the course of this season, picking players who faced the three relegated sides – Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton – has proven a reliable way to get attacking returns. 

A look at the statistics this season clearly underline those issues.

Those three clubs are also the worst for conceding both goals and big chances, which are situations where the player is expected to score.

Southampton rank bottom for both categories, conceding 82 goals and allowing their opponents 145 big chances.

However, a look at the recent numbers over each club’s last four matches shows a remarkable turnaround for Saints under interim head coach Simon Rusk.

They have allowed just two big chances during that spell, the BEST defensive record in the league.

Leicester and Ipswich, by contrast, have continued to struggle at the back, allowing 16 and 12 big chances respectively.

Relegated clubs, 24/25

Which clubs have been weakest in defence recently?

An assessment of the defensive numbers over each club's last four matches shows that, similarly to Leicester and Ipswich, Tottenham Hotspur's recent struggles are reflective of their season.

Spurs have allowed 13 big chances across their last four matches, the third-worst total. They have conceded 110 such opportunities this season, the fourth-most in the league.

Another standout feature in the table below shows that, in direct contrast to Southampton, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool have become far less reliable at the back.

Over the season as a whole, those three clubs are among the four best defences for conceding the fewest big chances, with Arsenal allowing only 55 of them across 36 matches.

But over their last four matches, the Gunners have allowed 12 big chances - the same number as Ipswich.

Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have conceded 14 big chances, just two fewer than Leicester, while Liverpool are tied with Manchester United here on 10 each.

Worst defences, last four matches

Which attackers are facing the worst recent defences?

A look at each club's remaining schedules shows why managers are rushing to Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) ahead of Friday's 18:00 BST deadline.

Aston Villa host Spurs before visiting Man Utd in Gameweek 38 - and BOTH those clubs are among the worst defences over their last four matches in the table above.

Watkins is the most-bought player in the Gameweek, with 213,000+ new owners - almost twice the 113,000+ of his nearest rival, Crystal Palace midfielder Eberechi Eze (£6.9m). 

A big part of Watkins' appeal is that each of his upcoming opponents have been rotating heavily due to their progress in the UEFA Europa League, with the final taking place next Wednesday, making the Villa forward a genuine captain option. Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) also looks a standout budget pick in midfield, with Marco Asensio (£6.1m) the big differential, sat in only two per cent of squads.

Encouragingly for managers in Fantasy, Villa are among FOUR clubs who will face two of the most out-of-form defences.

Brighton & Hove Albion's Joao Pedro (£5.5m) has returned from suspension and is now owned by just eight per cent for his encounters with Liverpool and Spurs.

Chelsea star Cole Palmer (£10.5m) also comes into the captaincy conversation at home to Man Utd, while the numbers indicate the Blues' Gameweek 38 visit to Forest might not be as tough as previously expected.

West Ham United talisman Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) is another who faces Nuno Espirito Santo's side before visiting Ipswich on the final day of the season. 

If you're on the search for single-Gameweek picks, Leicester’s Jamie Vardy (£5.3m) is at home to Ipswich in Gameweek 37, while AFC Bournemouth Evanilson (£5.8m) has a home fixture against the Foxes in Gameweek 38.

Clubs with best schedules, GW37-38