Golden Boot race: Six in the mix as Salah still leads

Football writer Adrian Clarke checks the mid-season state of play in the goalscoring chart.

The five leading contenders to win this season’s Premier League Golden Boot found the back of the net in Matchweek 20, as the race hots up to finish 2024/25 as the leading goalscorer.

Mohamed Salah, who is looking to become only the second player, after Thierry Henry, to land the award on four occasions, leads the way on 18 goals.

Just behind him on 16 is Manchester City’s Erling Haaland, who has a chance to be just the third player to win the Golden Boot in three consecutive campaigns.

Alan Shearer (1994-97) and Henry (2003-06) are the only strikers to have accomplished that feat.

But don’t write off the likes of Alexander Isak, Cole Palmer and Bryan Mbeumo, who are all in excellent form, and still in the hunt with 13 strikes apiece. Chris Wood is just one goal further back in sixth place, on 12.

No 9 not the dominant position

It is interesting that only two of this season’s top five at this stage are centre forwards.

Haaland and Isak are very much prototype No 9s, but Salah and Mbeumo are essentially right-sided forwards, while Palmer occupies a No 10 role.

Salah (three), Son Heung-min, Sadio Mane and Cristiano Ronaldo are the only non-strikers to have landed the Golden Boot in Premier League history.

Left-footers lead the way

Left-footed players are dominating the race to become top scorer.

Robin van Persie, Salah and Haaland are the only lefties to have won this prize before, but as it stands, Newcastle United star Isak is the only naturally right-footed member of this season's top five.

How the top five contenders score goals

Who is the most clinical?

From a statistical standpoint, Brentford’s Mbeumo is the most efficient finisher among this group of elite marksmen.

The 25-year-old has fired off less than half the number of shots as Haaland and Salah, converting an incredible 44.83 per cent of his unblocked efforts.

Getting more than 72 per cent of his shots on target, Mbeumo's left foot is a weapon that deserves huge respect.

Best chance conversion & shot accuracy 24/25

The Bees forward is also lethal when clear opportunities fall his way, converting 58.33 per cent of big chances.

For Mbeumo to propel himself into the mix to win the Golden Boot, he must simply increase the frequency of his shots.

Which contender is the best at close range?

Sweden international Isak is the only member of the top five contenders who has not scored at least one penalty this season.

He is also the most predatory poacher in the six-yard box too.

Scoring seven of his 13 goals from that area of the pitch, way more than Salah (three), Haaland (two), Palmer (one) and Mbeumo (zero), Isak is superb at anticipating where the ball will fall inside the six-yard box.

As you can see on this shot map (above), all but one of Isak’s 13 strikes have come from inside the penalty area, and from very central positions.

He regularly places himself between the width of the goalposts, and that’s where 92.3 per cent of his goals have come from so far this season.

When the top-five contenders score

The two favourites to win this season’s Golden Boot are at their most lethal during different stages of matches.

Remarkably, 16 of Salah’s 18 strikes have come in the second half, with 14 of those arriving in the final 30 minutes plus stoppage time.

The Egyptian is not somebody that Arne Slot substitutes very often, and for good reason, as he comes on strong when opposing sides are beginning to tire.

Haaland, who leads the way with the most non-penalty goals (15), is at his best early on.

Twelve of his 16 Premier League goals have been scored in the first half, with 10 arriving before the half-hour mark.

When Haaland scores 2024/25

These numbers are a huge surprise because Haaland had featured for every minute of City’s Premier League campaign until he was subbed on 84 minutes last time out, against West Ham United.

With no back-up striker in place, he has seen the full match out in 19 of his 20 appearances.

Netting just four second-half goals, during a period when City’s opponents have traditionally been worn down, shows how the Norwegian can make improvements between now and the end of the campaign.

The formbook

All the main protagonists are in good form, but keeping pace with the brilliance of Salah and Isak is near-on impossible for the rest at the moment.

Both forwards have registered more than a goal a game across their last eight league appearances, producing some sparkling individual displays in the process.

They are the two forwards with the most momentum in the chase for the Golden Boot.

What’s coming next?

The next four matches could provide in-form Isak with an opportunity to close the gap and make Premier League history.

Scoring in seven consecutive matches, he is looking to equal Jamie Vardy’s record streak of 11 for Leicester City set in 2015/16, and he will do so if he finds the net at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers, AFC Bournemouth and Fulham, as well as away to Southampton.

It is a relatively kind run of fixtures that makes it feel like Isak has a realistic chance of emulating Vardy.

Salah and Haaland both have three away matches to come in the next few weeks, with some difficult fixtures ahead.

By the time we reach early February this wide-open race for the 2024/25 Golden Boot could look even more interesting than it does today.

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