Fantasy Premier League

Who's the best replacement for Saliba in FPL?

By The Scout 21 Oct 2024
Saliba replacements V2

The Scout delves into the data as managers rush to replace Arsenal defender due to one-match ban and tough fixtures

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The Scout highlights the best replacements in Fantasy Premier League for Arsenal defender William Saliba (£6.0m), who is the most-sold player in Gameweek 9 due to suspension and a tough run of fixtures.

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More than 396,000 managers have already transferred out centre-back Saliba ahead of Friday’s 18:30 BST deadline, and a look at the Gunners’ short-term schedule shows why more sales are expected.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), each of Arsenal’s next three matches – against Liverpool, Newcastle United and Chelsea – score at least four. Indeed, this period is regarded as their toughest run of opponents for the rest of the season. 

Arsenal's next three fixtures
GW Opp. FDR*
9 Liverpool (H) 5
10 Newcastle (A) 4
11 Chelsea (A) 4

*1 = easiest possible fixture, 5 = hardest possible fixture

Saliba’s one-match ban, which he will serve against Liverpool in Gameweek 9, also gives his backers a chance to reassess his output as a premium-priced defender.  

Although he’s helped his side to three clean sheets, the Frenchman has no attacking returns or bonus points.

Who are the most consistent defenders in FPL?

An analysis of the most reliable defenders over the first eight Gameweeks shows that Saliba’s team-mate Gabriel (£6.3m), along with Manchester City’s Josko Gvardiol (£6.1m) and Liverpool’s Ibrahima Konate (£5.3m), have boosted their output with at least two attacking returns (goals or assists).

Gabriel’s goals at Tottenham Hotspur and Man City show why he is, quite simply, the one fixture-proof defender in Fantasy, with the Brazilian boasting strong potential at both ends of the pitch in any given Gameweek.

Konate has blanked in only two of his seven outings, combining a goal and an assist with four clean sheets. His team-mate Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.1m) has also been a big success under new head coach Arne Slot, topping the defender standings on 43 points, thanks to a goal and five clean sheets.

Although Gvardiol has scored twice, the lack of defensive returns – just one clean sheet in seven starts – shows that Pep Guardiola’s champions are clearly missing their central midfielder Rodri (£6.3m).

Manchester United’s Diogo Dalot (£5.1m) also catches the eye here. The Portuguese has delivered an assist and four clean sheets in addition to six bonus points – joint-top with Alexander-Arnold among defenders.

Most consistent defenders GW1-8
Player G+A Clean sheets Blanks when starting Price
Alexander-Arnold 1 5 3 £7.1m
Gabriel 2 3 4 £6.3m
Konate 2 4 2 £5.3m
Van Dijk 0 5 3 £6.0m
Dalot 1 4 4 £5.1m
Gvardiol 2 1 4 £6.1m
Robertson 0 4 3 £6.0m
Which defenders have the most goals and assists in FPL?

Budget defenders have thrived as attacking assets in the opening stages of 2024/25 Fantasy.

Only FOUR players in this position have scored or assisted at least three goals, and handily for Fantasy managers all of them are priced under £5.0m – unlike any of the players above.

Wolverhampton Wanderers' Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.4m) has shown strong all-round potential, scoring twice and supplying a further two assists.

Brentford’s Nathan Collins (£4.5m) is a big threat at free-kicks and corners, as evidenced by his one goal and three assists.

Leicester City’s James Justin (£4.6m) and Aston Villa’s Lucas Digne (£4.6m) have also been quick to make their mark on 2024/25 Fantasy.

Justin has two goals, an assist and 23 points in the last three Gameweeks, while Digne’s three assists leave him just one off his total of four from last season. 

Defenders with most goals and assists GW1-8
Player G+A G A Price
Ait-Nouri 4 2 2 £4.4m
Collins 4 1 3 £4.5m
Justin 3 2 1 £4.6m
Digne 3 0 3 £4.6m
Who's most likely to score?

The underlying statistics highlight Gabriel's peerless potential for goals.

His 11 shots in the box rank top among defenders, as do his four big chances – situations where the player is expected to score. Gabriel has also created a big chance, which means he has been involved in five big chances this season, joint-top for defenders.

Although he's failed to score, Fulham's Kenny Tete (£4.5m) has matched the 12 shots of Gabriel and ranks second among defenders, with 10 shots in the box.

Spurs' Cristian Romero (£5.1m) is showing the set-piece threat that helped him score five goals last season – his nine shots in the box just edge him above Gvardiol into third spot.

Brentford's major threat from set-pieces is also in evidence here, with centre-backs Collins and Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m) each producing seven shots in the box.

Top goal threat among defenders GW1-8
Player Shots Shots in box Key passes Big-chance involvement
Gabriel 12 11 2 5
Tete 12 10 1 1
Romero 9 9 3 3
Gvardiol 10 8 6 2
Ait-Nouri 9 7 8 4
Justin 8 7 2 1
Pinnock 8 7 1 1
Collins 7 7 2 2
Porro 16 4 15 1
Davis 4 2 19 5
Alexander-Arnold 8 1 15 5
Digne 4 1 4 4
Who's most likely to get an assist?

Ipswich Town's Leif Davis (£4.5m) and Liverpool's Alexander-Arnold are the standout defenders for assist potential.

He may only have one assist to his name, but there's no doubt that Davis's underlying numbers are more in line with a premium defender and indicate he could be the best-value asset at the back.

His five big chances created are joint-top with Alexander-Arnold, while his 19 key passes also rank first among defenders.

Alexander-Arnold's lack of goal threat has to be a big concern, though, with just one shot in the box so far. Konate's total of five shots in the box, by contrast, are more than any other Liverpool defender, which further enhances his appeal as a cheaper alternative to his premium-priced team-mate.

The all-round displays of Spurs' Pedro Porro (£5.5m) and Wolves' Ait-Nouri also stand out. 

Porro's 16 shots are more than any defender over the first eight Gameweeks and his 15 key passes rank joint-second. However, it's worth noting that only four of his efforts have come from inside the box, and only one of his key passes has been a big chance created.

Ait-Nouri's seven shots in the box, eight key passes and involvement in four big chances suggest he's making more of an impact in dangerous situations. 

So, who are the best Saliba replacements?

Gabriel’s potential at both ends of the pitch makes him a season keeper. If you own Saliba, don’t look at this as a sideways move, because Gabriel has so much more attacking upside. Simply get him now and you have one less position to worry about.

Investment in Liverpool’s mean defence also looks a wise move and, although there’d be no surprise if Alexander-Arnold finished the campaign as their top scorer at the back, the kindly-priced Konate has the goal-threat advantage over his team-mate to merit long-term investment.

Although Gvardiol’s recent return to scoring form certainly raises his appeal, there’s no doubt that Man City’s lack of clean sheets goes against him at a cost of £6.1m.

In a season where clean sheets are few and far between, Ipswich’s Davis’s huge potential for assists can make him the ideal sub-£5.0m defender. 

Indeed, both Davis and Wolves’ Ait-Nouri have very favourable schedules for many Gameweeks to come that could help them provide excellent value.

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