Fantasy Premier League

Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 4?

By The Scout 12 Sep 2024
Haaland, Salah

The Scout delves into the data as Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah battle for the armband

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Erling Haaland (£15.2m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) are set to battle for the captaincy for millions of managers in Gameweek 4 of Fantasy Premier League.

The pair are tied at the top of the player standings on a record-breaking 41 points after the opening three Gameweeks of 2024/25.

The premium-priced pair have eclipsed the previous high of 40 points set by Michail Antonio (£5.5m) between Gameweeks 1-3 at the start of the 2021/22 season.

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Manchester City’s Haaland has scored seven goals, including back-to-back hat-tricks against Ipswich Town and West Ham United.

Salah has three goals and three assists, delivering a double-digit haul in all three of his outings under new Liverpool head coach Arne Slot.

Both have very favourable home matches to further boost their points potential, with Man City hosting Brentford and Liverpool entertaining Nottingham Forest.

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If you’re brave enough to look beyond those two, then Cole Palmer (£10.6m), Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) and Son Heung-min (£10.0m) are all capable of huge hauls.

Palmer travels with Chelsea to AFC Bournemouth, having produced 17 points in his previous away match against Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Saka has yet to blank this season ahead of Arsenal’s north London derby at Tottenham Hotspur, while Son claimed a 16-point haul in Spurs’ last home match, against Everton in Gameweek 2.

Tpo goal involvements GW1-3
Player G A G + A Pts
Haaland 7 0 7 41
Salah 3 3 6 41
Palmer 1 4 5 25
Saka 1 3 4 24
Son 2 0 2 21
Who has had the greatest attacking threat?

The underlying numbers help to further highlight Haaland and Salah’s armband appeal.

Haaland’s 12 shots in the box are more than any other player in the league, with the Norwegian converting a massive 50 per cent of his 14 attempts.

Salah, however, is the leading player for big-chance involvement as a result of his all-round style of play. The Egyptian has been supplied with five such opportunities, while also creating four big chances.

That combined tally of nine big-chance involvements just edges the eight of Haaland, with Saka and Palmer tied on five each. The Arsenal star has certainly had the edge over his Chelsea counterpart for goal threat, leading Palmer by nine shots in the box to two.

While Son’s hefty 40 per cent goal conversion is encouraging, he’s only had five shots in his three matches and scored with two of them. 

Player statistics, GW1-3
Player Big-chance involvement Shots in box Goal conversion
Salah 9 10 30.0%
Haaland 8 12 50.0%
Saka 5 9 10.0%
Palmer 5 2 11.1%
Son 4 3 40.0%
How have their opponents fared?

Assessing the defensive data of each player’s opponents can also help with your captaincy decision.

The team data certainly indicates Haaland has an advantage over Salah. His opponents Brentford have allowed 32 shots in the box this season, which is 20 more than the 12 of Salah’s opponents Nott’m Forest.

Bournemouth’s statistics give Palmer a big boost. The Cherries have conceded 33 shots in the box and 10 big chances, with both those totals more than any other side.

Somewhat surprisingly, Arsenal have conceded more shots in the box and big chances than Spurs, suggesting Son is more than capable of matching Saka in Sunday afternoon’s contest.

Defensive data GW1-3
Opp. Goals conceded Shots in box conceded Big chances conceded
Bournemouth 4 33 10
Brentford 4 32 7
Arsenal 1 28 6
Nott'm Forest 2 12 5
Spurs 3 22 4
So, who is the best captain?

Combining the player and opposition data, it’s difficult to look past Haaland.

Granted, his 50 per cent goal conversion rate is unsustainable over an entire season, but Brentford look likely to give him plenty of opportunities to extend his prolific start to the campaign.

Salah’s all-round output means there would be no real surprise if he outscored the Man City star. Yet Nott’m Forest’s statistics suggest they can put up more of a stubborn resistance than Brentford this weekend.

Haaland’s huge ownership is another factor to consider. He’s owned by 67 per cent of managers – 24 per cent more than Salah – and the vast majority will surely hand the Norwegian the armband in expectation of another bumper haul.

Palmer looks to be the best of the rest, with Bournemouth’s frailties set to provide him every chance to get more attacking returns on Saturday night. 

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12 Oct 2024

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