RANKED: Which clubs have the best and worst run-ins?

23 Jun 2024
Man City, Everton

We reveal the Premier League teams with the best chance of having a great end to 2024/25

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After the 2024/25 Premier League schedule was released, we look at each team's last nine matches to see who has the best and worst run-ins.

The Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) is a Fantasy Premier League tool based on a complex algorithm that generates a rank for the perceived difficulty of a team's opponent.

Fixtures are ranked from one (easy) to five (hard), with the colours green for easier fixtures and red for harder opponents helping Fantasy managers determine at a glance which teams have kind or difficult runs of opponents.

You can see the fixtures and FDR scores below for each team's last nine opponents.

Each team’s FDR score for last nine matches 
Each team's 2024/25 run-in ranked
Everton have toughest run-in

Unlike Everton’s opening 10 matches, where according to the FDR they have the kindest start to the season, with an average score of 2.5, the Toffees have the most difficult run-in, with an average FDR score of 3.6.

In what will be their final season at Goodison Park, Everton’s final nine matches include a trip to Merseyside rivals Liverpool, along with home contests against last season’s runners-up Arsenal and title-winners Manchester City. Sean Dyche's side also travel to Chelsea and Newcastle United, two teams that finished in the top seven last season. 

Crystal Palace and Fulham have the next toughest run-ins, both with an average FDR score of 3.2.

The Eagles face four of last season's top five in their last four away matches, visiting Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool.

Meanwhile, Fulham welcome Liverpool and Man City to Craven Cottage, and also have to travel across London to take on Arsenal.

Favourable finishes for Man City and Arsenal

According to the FDR, the champions and runners-up for the previous two seasons have the kindest run-ins, with an average FDR score of 2.4 for Man City and 2.6 for Arsenal, followed by Aston Villa, Leicester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, all on 2.7.

Arsenal’s last nine matches are made up of only one club who finished in the top six last season. However, this is a testing trip to Anfield, a ground they have not won at in the league since September 2012.

Six of Man City’s last nine matches are against teams who finished in the bottom half of the table or were promoted last season.

Southampton fare worst among promoted sides

The promoted team with the trickiest first 10 matches, Southampton, also face a daunting run-in.

Their final matches produce an average FDR score of 3.1, compared to 2.9 for Ipswich Town and 2.7 for Leicester. The Saints entertain both Man City and Arsenal across their last three fixtures.

The softer run-in for Leicester sees them host fellow promoted sides Ipswich and Southampton over the final four Matchweeks, and travel to Brighton & Hove Albion, Wolves, Nottingham Forest and AFC Bournemouth, who all finished in the bottom half of the table last season.

Best/worst run-ins by FDR average
Best run-in Worst run-in
Club FDR* Club FDR*
Man City 2.4 Everton 3.6
Arsenal 2.6 Crystal Palace 3.2
West Ham 2.6 Fulham 3.2
Aston Villa 2.7 Southampton 3.1
Leicester 2.7 AFC Bournemouth 3.0
Wolves 2.7 Ipswich 2.9
Brentford 2.8 Man Utd 2.9
Brighton 2.8 Spurs 2.8
Chelsea 2.8 Nott'm Forest 2.8
Liverpool 2.8 Newcastle 2.8

*FDR average score

How European matches could impact clubs' run-ins

The seven clubs who qualified for European competitions in 2024/25 may potentially have the quarter-finals and semi-finals to play across the last nine Premier League Matchweeks. For Spurs and Manchester United, they may also face the prospect of the UEFA Europa League final on Wednesday 21 May between their last two Premier League games.

For Spurs, that would be sandwiched in between a trip to Villa and a home meeting with Brighton, while Man Utd entertain Villa on the final day and visit Chelsea three days before the final in Bilbao, Spain.

You can see below how all of the 2024/25 season's European dates fit around Premier League matches. 

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