Fantasy Premier League

Why 2024/25 can be Havertz's best Fantasy season

By The Scout 10 Jul 2024
Kai Havertz, Arsenal

The Scout says Arsenal star can build on his excellent second half of 2023/24

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The Scout is identifying players who could improve on last season's displays and have an even bigger impact when 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League begins.

Kai Havertz (Arsenal) £8.0m

The German's displays in the second half of 2023/24 indicate he can finally establish himself as a key figure in Fantasy this season.

Havertz struggled for form after arriving at Arsenal from Chelsea last summer, scoring four goals and supplying an assist over his first 19 appearances for the Gunners.

But he was transformed following the club’s winter break, with his output playing a major part in Arsenal’s title battle with champions Manchester City.

Havertz combined nine goals with nine assists to collect a team-high 128 points from Gameweek 21 onwards. Indeed, he placed third among all players in Fantasy in that period, surpassed only by Cole Palmer and Phil Foden, who produced 152 points and 134 points respectively.

Importantly, Havertz has now been reclassified from a midfielder to a forward due to his role up front for Mikel Arteta’s side.

This obviously impacts on his Fantasy appeal, as midfielders earn five points for each goal they score compared with the four of forwards. They also collect one point for every clean sheet their team collects, whereas forwards are not rewarded.

But comparing Havertz to the best players for goal involvement (goals and assists) in the second half of the season certainly shows his potential.

His total of 18 goal involvements was second only to the 22 of Palmer - the top-scoring player in Fantasy - who delivered 14 goals and eight assists from Gameweek 21 onwards.

Notably, Havertz’s output was similar to the best-performing forwards. Ollie Watkins and Jean-Philippe Mateta were only one behind on 17 goal involvements, while Erling Haaland (£15.0m) and Alexander Isak were each involved in 16 goals.

Havertz's all-round quality is underlined by his nine assists, second only to the 10 of Manchester City playmaker Kevin De Bruyne in that spell.

Top players for goal involvement, GW21-38
Player Goal involvement Goals Assists
Palmer 22 14 8
Havertz 18 9 9
Mateta 17 14 3
Watkins 17 10 7
Foden 16 14 2
Haaland 16 13 3
Isak 16 12 4
Saka 15 10 5
De Bruyne 14 4 10
Gordon 14 5 9
What do the underlying statistics tell us?

By assessing Havertz’s performances against his early-season displays, it is apparent that his potential for both goals and assists improved.

Indeed, his total number of big chances, shots in the box and key passes all virtually DOUBLED.

Havertz had 16 big chances from Gameweek 21 onwards, up from only eight beforehand, with his shots in the box rising from 22 to 40.

The biggest improvement, though, was his shooting accuracy. After managing a mere four shots on target in the opening 20 Gameweeks, Havertz proceeded to have 24 such attempts over the remainder of the campaign.

His upturn in creativity meant that Havertz was involved in 35 per cent of Arsenal's goals after their winter break - prior to that he had played a part in only 19 per cent when selected.

Havertz's 2023/24 season contribution
Statistic GW1-20 GW21-38
Mins per shot 47.7 33.3
Shots in box 22 40
Big chances 8 16
Shots on target 4 24
Key passes 16 30
Goal involvement 19% 35%
How Havertz compared with other attackers

Assessed against his team-mates, Havertz’s numbers show he was the focal point of Arsenal’s attack in the second half of 2023/24.

His 16 big chances and 24 shots on target both placed first, while his 40 shots in the box and goal conversion rate of 20.5 per cent ranked second.

Arsenal's top players for goal threat, GW21-38
Statistic Havertz Saka Trossard Martinelli
Shots in box 40 42 29 22
Big chances 16 10 6 6
Shots on target 24 18 15 9
Goal conversion 20.5% 16.9% 24.3% 16.0%

The burden of creativity was more on the shoulders of Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka, who made 58 and 41 key passes respectively.

Havertz’s 30 key passes sat fourth, just behind the 32 of Declan Rice, with the duo claiming joint-second for big chances created on seven each.

Arsenal's top players for creativity, GW21-38
Player Key passes Big chances created
Odegaard 58 10
Saka 41 5
Rice 32 7
Havertz 30 7

Comparing Havertz to other midfielders and forwards in Fantasy in this period highlights his major all-round threat.

Havertz's 40 shots in the box ranked fourth among midfielders and was also surpassed by just three forwards. Meanwhile, his 24 shots on target would have earned him a top three spot in either position.

Although his 24 key passes and seven big chances fared less well against midfielders, Havertz would have claimed first place for each statistic if he was a forward.

His all-round style of play is even more impressive when looking only at the big-chance involvement numbers.

Havertz's total of 23 was joint-second with Chelsea’s Palmer among midfielders, just behind the 24 of Tottenham Hotspur's Brennan Johnson.

Haaland and Isak were the only forwards to better Havertz, with 29 and 26 big chance involvements respectively. The Arsenal star just edged the 22 of Aston Villa's Watkins, who finished as the top-scoring forward last season on 228 points. 

Havertz vs midfielders and forwards, GW21-38
Statistic Total Midfield rank Forward rank
Shots in box 40 4 4
Big chances 16 =1 =5
Shots on target 24 3 =2
Key passes 30 =24 1
Big chances 7 =10 1
Big chance involvement 23 =2 3

There seems little doubt that Havertz will be even more important to Arsenal when the season gets under way.

Crucially, his output is backed up by the underlying numbers, making Havertz one of the most attacking players in the Premier League.

After finishing last season with a career-high of 180 points, Havertz's potential for goals and assists means he looks well on course to smash his personal best again if he can maintain his late momentum of 2023/24.

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