Fantasy Premier League

The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 38 Ones to watch

By The Scout 16 May 2024
FPL2324_GW38_OTW

Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta among five players backed to score big in FINAL Gameweek of 2023/24

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The Scout is tipping five players for big success in Gameweek 38 as managers prepare to make their final transfers of 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League.

Jean-Philippe Mateta (Palace) £5.0m

The forward boasts a flawless home record under Oliver Glasner ahead of Crystal Palace’s clash with Aston Villa

Mateta has scored in all six of his Selhurst Park appearances under the Austrian, amassing 54 points thanks to eight goals and an assist.

Indeed, Mateta is the top-scoring forward in Fantasy since Glasner was appointed head coach in Gameweek 25, claiming 85 points across 13 outings.

The Frenchman has attacking returns in nine of his 13 starts since Glasner’s arrival, which equates to a 69.2 per cent success rate, higher than any other forward from Gameweek 25 onwards.

In the nine fixtures in which he delivered an attacking return, Mateta has averaged a healthy 8.6 points per match (PPM). 

Manchester City's Erling Haaland (£14.2m) is Mateta's nearest rival for consistency on 66.7 percent. The Norwegian had attacking returns in eight of his 12 appearances, including a goal off the bench against Nottingham Forest. Haaland averaged 9.5 PPM in those eight successful fixtures.

Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak (£8.4m) and Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) were near-identical in this time frame.

Both had attacking returns in seven of their 12 matches, or 58.3 per cent. They each averaged 9.9 PPM in those seven matches.

The improving form of Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m) is clear to see. The Senegalese was identical to Mateta for PPM in the matches in which he either scored or assisted. Although he was a little less reliable than the Eagles' striker, Jackson's 58.3 per cent success rate was on a par with Watkins.

Top-scoring forwards, Gameweek 25 onwards
Player Total points Attacking pts Matches w/ attacking returns
Mateta 85 77 9
Haaland 84 76 8
Isak 79 69 7
Watkins 78 69 7
Jackson 72 60 7
Player Appearances PPM with attacking returns Attacking returns succ. rate
Mateta 13 8.6 69.2%
Haaland 12 9.5 66.7%
Isak 12 9.9 58.3%
Watkins 12 9.9 58.3%
Jackson 13 8.6 53.8%
Leandro Trossard (Arsenal) £6.5m

Arsenal’s Belgian welcomes Everton in his most prolific run of form in 2023/24 Fantasy.

Trossard’s strike in the Gunners’ 1-0 win at Manchester United last weekend means he has scored in four of their last five league matches. Goals at home to Chelsea and Bournemouth and away to Wolverhampton Wanderers have earned the winger 39 points in that stretch, a total bettered by only two team-mates.

Trossard’s 12 shots in the box also rank third for Arsenal across that period, underlining his potential for more goals.

Arsenal’s final-day push for the title is bound to make their attackers attractive picks. Trossard not only has the form to tick that box, his ownership of just two per cent makes him a very strong differential for managers who need to take a risk with their Gameweek 38 transfer.

Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) £13.4m

Liverpool’s clash with Wolves at Anfield gives the Egyptian the chance to provide Jurgen Klopp with the perfect send-off on Sunday afternoon.

Granted, there is no doubt that Salah has been far from his reliable best for a number of months now. 

Yet his 13-point haul against Tottenham Hotspur in the Reds’ last home match in Gameweek 36 shows why he should rival Haaland and Cole Palmer (£6.3m) for the Gameweek 38 armband.

Indeed, Salah has outscored Haaland by 118 points to 114 in home matches, with both starting 14 fixtures. Salah has averaged 8.4 points per start at Anfield in Klopp's final campaign at the helm.

Top-scoring players in home matches, 2023/24
Player Pts G A Pts/start
Palmer 137 16 3 11.2
Gordon 133 9 13 7.4
Foden 118 8 7 7.0
Salah 118 13 4 8.4
Watkins 115 9 11 6.1
Haaland 114 15 4 8.1
Ollie Watkins (Villa) £8.9m

Aston Villa’s front man has suffered huge sales in Fantasy recently due to his side’s lack of a Double Gameweek.

Yet Watkins’ record on the road indicates why some former owners may be eyeing up a return for his visit to Crystal Palace. 

The striker has 10 goals and seven assists across his 17 starts in away matches this season. Indeed, Watkins’ 111 points in away matches ranks second among all players. 

After suffering back-to-back blanks, the Villa talisman reminded managers of his all-round potential by supplying his 18th assist of the campaign against Liverpool on Monday evening.

Watkins’ return to form looks well-timed and gives him the chance of more joy on his travels at Selhurst Park this weekend. 

Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford) £6.8m

As one of the few clubs who were without a Double Gameweek over the run-in, Brentford’s players have largely been ignored by managers in Fantasy.

Mbeumo’s goal and assist against Bournemouth last weekend, however, highlights his improving form ahead of the Bees’ home clash with Newcastle. 

The Cameroonian has impressed since he returned to the Brentford first XI in Gameweek 32 following a long-term injury. Mbeumo has scored twice and supplied three assists in his subsequent six fixtures to collect 35 points in Fantasy.

Top midfielder for points per start*
Player Pts G A Pts/start
Palmer 238 22 12 8.3
Salah 205 18 11 7.1
Saka 226 16 13 6.5
Foden 215 17 8 6.4
Son 206 17 9 6.1
Mbeumo 125 9 7 5.8

*Players who have played at least half of their club's matches

Combined with his fine showings in the early part of the season, the Brentford star has nine goals and seven assists across 24 appearances.

Notably, Mbeumo has averaged 5.8 points per start in 2023/24, placing him sixth among all midfielders who have started at least half of their club's matches.

Newcastle’s record in the road certainly offers encouragement for Brentford’s chances of goals. Ahead of their visit to Man Utd in their second match of Double Gameweek 37 on Wednesday evening, the Magpies have mustered a mere one clean sheet in their last 14 away fixtures. 

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