Race for fourth spot set for thrilling finale

Tottenham Hotspur’s 4-0 victory over Aston Villa in Matchweek 28 was, for many onlookers, a decisive moment in the race for fourth and proof that Ange Postecoglou’s side hold all the cards.

Race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
4	Aston Villa AVL	38	+15	68
5	Spurs TOT	38	+13	66
6	Chelsea CHE	38	+14	63

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But there is a long way to go - and only three points separate the two sides with nine Matchweeks to go.

Then there’s Manchester United, currently nine points adrift of Villa in fourth but still clinging on with their match in hand, hopeful that at least one of their rivals will collapse over the last 10 matches and give Erik ten Hag the chance to redeem a disappointing campaign.

Things are complicated further by the possibility that England will be given a fifth UEFA Champions League spot based on the performance of English clubs in Europe this season.

As it stands, Opta give England an 70.6 per cent chance of finishing in the top two of UEFA’s coefficient rankings.

But it would be naive to assume fifth is as good as fourth this year, and all three managers will be desperate to avoid relying on others by securing a place in the top four.

Here, Alex Keble analyses which of Spurs, Villa or Man Utd are likely to finish highest.

Fixture comparison suggests Man Utd have easiest run-in

Looking at their respective fixtures, and calculating the average points won so far by their remaining opponents, Villa face the most difficult set of matches.

Remaining fixtures of top-four rivals

Man Utd and Spurs both have Sheffield United and Burnley to play, while Villa don’t have anyone in the bottom five. That is a notable disadvantage for Unai Emery’s side.

However, the fixtures alone don’t tell us too much. Spurs and Villa both have to face Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea, and although United’s fixtures look considerably easier they have a much larger deficit to make up.

Besides, it’s impossible to accurately predict results in specific matches this far in advance. We can glean more from looking at the form guide.

Points tallies and xG table can’t split Villa and Spurs

Over the last 10 years, the team that finished fourth have averaged 71.2 points, though this has dropped to 69.2 points over the last five years as part of a downward trend.

But on 2023/24 points-per-game averages, this will be a particularly strong season. Villa (73.4) and Spurs (71.9) are both on track for above-average points and Man Utd are on for 63.8.

Fourth-placed team's points total 2013-2023

It is too simplistic to assume all three clubs will hold to their season-long averages, but if we extrapolate from just the last 10 Premier League matches, we can at least show how unlikely it is that Man Utd will move above sixth.

As the table below indicates, Villa’s recent form has dropped over time while Man Utd’s has improved, and yet even if they repeated their points tallies from the last 10 matches, United would not overtake them.

Average points per match 2023/24

*Villa's last 11 matches having played one match more
**Based on points from last 10 matches being repeated

In other words, Man Utd need a major upturn in form and a complete implosion from Villa and Spurs to come fourth.

That would explain why Opta’s simulated league table gives United only a four per cent chance of finishing fourth and a 13.0 per cent chance of coming fifth. It also slightly favours Spurs over Villa by 47.6 per cent to 46.3 per cent.

But this is counterbalanced by what Opta’s "Expected Points" table suggests. According to their calculations for the season so far, Villa deserve to be fourth, with 46.7 Expected Points, while Spurs should be eighth with 41.5, five points below Villa.

Expected Points from season so far

Of course, under or over-performing against Expected Goals (xG) isn’t necessarily a sign of luck. It could mean Spurs are simply better in the two boxes. But nevertheless there is a possibility of progression and regression to respective averages that would tip the balance back in Villa’s favour.

Spurs’ freshness gives them advantage

The underlying data cannot separate them, but a difference in fitness can.

Spurs have fewer injuries than any of their rivals and enter the run-in missing only Micky van de Ven from their best XI.

That is causally linked to a lack of European football this year, which has kept them fresh and fit – and allowed Postecoglou to spend full weeks on the training field preparing for Premier League matches.

This might make the telling difference. Without Van de Ven’s recovery pace their high line is a little more precarious, and we know Postecoglou takes risks. Spurs rank second in the Premier League for errors leading to a shot, with 17.

But they are relentless - well-drilled, full of goals and enjoying their football.

Son Heung-min has 14 goals and eight assists in his last 22 league matches. Aside from not scoring for the first time this season against Fulham, they are sparkling in the frontline, their boundless energy counting for more as fatigue sets in at other clubs.

Postecoglou’s adventurous tactics - and the optimism it brings – explains why Spurs are over-performing their xG by 9.16 goals, the second-most in the Premier League, and why, aside from an injury-hit period in November, they have not relented.

Villa’s midfield issues make fifth most likely

Villa’s drop in form through 2024 can almost entirely be put down to injuries in central defence.

Emery uses an extremely risky offside trap. Indeed, Villa have caught 135 offsides this season, significantly more than anyone else, and have also allowed a division-high 94 through-balls. This system was being implemented by Villa’s fourth and fifth-choice centre-backs for a long time.

Pau Torres and Ezri Konsa are back now, but a new problem has emerged. Boubacar Kamara is out for the season, Jacob Ramsey’s injury issues aren’t going away and John McGinn is suspended.

Villa are likely to struggle to progress the ball through the lines or play with the transition-based verticality that Emery demands without their most important midfield players.

They already rank second in the Premier League for the number of times a player is dispossessed. Without McGinn, it’s a problem that could get worse, especially towards the end of a tiring campaign of Thursday night European football.

That’s not to say Villa are about to fall off a cliff. In fact, there will be very little in it between Spurs and Villa, who have already proved over two-thirds of a season that they are the real deal.

But Villa’s European excursions and Spurs' rest periods should, after last week’s result, swing things in Postecoglou’s favour. In fact, the 4-0 win was itself an example of Spurs’ advantage here, with Villa looking jaded after their trip to Amsterdam three days earlier.

Whether that matters is a different question. Assuming Man Utd cannot move above sixth, both Villa and Spurs will get into the Champions League should England secure a fifth spot in the competition.

Right now, Villa are clinging to that hope more than Spurs.