Title race: Is it now Man City's to lose?

18 Apr 2024
The Run In

City in pole position after shock home defeats for Liverpool and Arsenal

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There was yet another big swing in the 2023/24 title race last Sunday as Liverpool slipped to 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace at Anfield followed by Arsenal losing 2-0 to Aston Villa at Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal and Liverpool both have 71 points, two less than leaders Manchester City, with all sides having played the same number of matches.

Title race

Position Pos Club Played Pl GD Points Pts
1 Man City MCI 38 +62 91
2 Arsenal ARS 38 +62 89
3 Liverpool LIV 38 +45 82

Looking at each team's remaining matches, Man City have statistically the best run-in, putting them in pole position to become the first club in Premier League history to win four consecutive titles.

Remaining fixtures & opponents' average points
MW Man City Arsenal Liverpool
34 Brighton (A) Wolves (A)
Chelsea (H)
Fulham (A)
Everton (A)
35 Nott'm Forest (A) Spurs (A) West Ham (A)
36 Wolves (H) Bournemouth (H) Spurs (H)
37 Fulham (A)
Spurs (A)
Man Utd (A) Aston Villa (A)
38 West Ham (H) Everton (H) Wolves (H)
Ave. points 43.8 44.3 47.2
Man City have best run-in

Man City's remaining opponents have won on average 43.8 points this season. 

Three of their six remaining opponents are in the bottom half. 

Arsenal still have home advantage

By contrast, Arsenal's opponents have averaged 44.3 points this season. Their tricky run continues as they face Wolverhampton Wanderers, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur next.

What could help Arsenal, though, is that they have three home matches remaining, in comparison to Liverpool and Man City's two. 

Liverpool's opponents average 47.1 points this season and they also have the added factor of the Merseyside derby at Everton

Spurs to have huge say 

All three title contenders have to play fifth-placed Spurs, who could go a long way to deciding this season's champions. 

Arsenal travel to their north London rivals on 28 April, exactly a week before Liverpool host Spurs at Anfield. 

Man City's trip to Spurs will be their second fixture in Matchweek 37.

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