Fantasy Premier League

Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 27?

By The Scout 28 Feb 2024
Saka, Haaland, Watkins

The Scout compares the top candidates and analyses the defensive stats of their opponents

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Erling Haaland’s (£14.5m) status as the go-to captain could come under threat in Gameweek 27 of Fantasy Premier League.

The Manchester City forward’s huge 76 per cent ownership means he is very likely to be the most-selected armband pick for his derby with Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium. Haaland’s five goals against Luton Town in City's midweek FA Cup win only adds to his appeal.

Yet there’s no doubt that Bukayo Saka (£9.2m) and Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) both have the form and fixture to outscore Haaland.

Saka is the top-scoring player in Fantasy in the last four Gameweeks, netting six goals to collect 49 points. The Arsenal winger visits a Sheffield United side who have conceded five goals in three successive matches across all competitions at Bramall Lane.

Aston Villa’s Watkins placed second in that spell, earning 42 points thanks to four goals and four assists. His hosts Luton have conceded 19 goals in their last five matches in all competitions. 

Players' form, GW23-26
Player Pts Goal involvements G A Bonus
Saka 49 6 6 0 9
Watkins 42 8 4 4 6
Haaland 32 5 3 2 5

Rotate your mobile device to see full table

Haaland has boasted the greatest goal threat by some margin over that recent spell. 

Granted, he has played five matches, which is one more than his rivals, yet his 22 shots in the box is markedly better than the 13 of both Saka and Watkins. Essentially, the Man City striker was let down by a lowly 11.5 per cent goal conversion rate.

Saka and Watkins are identical for shots in the box, key passes and big chances created in the analysis. They have each profited from lofty goal conversion rates of 33.3 per cent and 26.7 per cent, more than double the average of Haaland.

Players' attacking threat, GW23-26
Player Shots in box Big chances Goal conversion Key passes Big chances created
Haaland 22 9 11.5% 6 1
Watkins 13 6 33.3% 5 2
Saka 13 8 26.7% 5 2

Rotate your mobile device to see full table

What about the home and away form?

When it comes to the home/away analysis, Haaland’s 25 big chances in home matches is more than the combined 20 of Saka and Watkins on their travels.

All three are near-identical for goal conversion here, with Watkins just behind the 20 per cent of Saka and Haaland.

The Arsenal star’s creativity is clearly the best on show, with his total of 26 key passes at least 10 more than his rivals in the analysis.

Home/away stats compared in 23/24
Player Shots in box Big chances Goal conversion Key passes Big chances created
Haaland (H) 38 25 20% 13 3
Watkins (A) 31 11 18.9% 16 6
Saka (A) 26 9 20% 26 6

Rotate your mobile device to see full table 

Assessing the opponents’ defences

Analysing each player’s opponents can help identify any weaknesses to target.

The defensive data looks encouraging for all three armband contenders.

Although Man Utd have conceded a mere four goals in their last four matches, they have allowed their opponents 55 shots in the box – the second-worst record of any side.

Luton and Sheff Utd also place among the bottom four sides for that same statistic, although both have conceded far more big chances, which could be further good news for Watkins and Saka.

Opponents’ defending, GW23-26
Team Goals conc. Clean sheets Shots in box conc. Big chances conc.
Luton 13 0 53 17
Sheff Utd 12 0 52 13
Man Utd 4 1 55 6

Sheff Utd’s numbers in home matches are the worst in the analysis for conceding goals, shots in the box and big chances.

Once again, Man Utd are worse-off than Luton for conceding shots in the box, by 151 to 123, although the Hatters have allowed more big chances.

Opponents’ home/away defending in 23/24
Team Goals conc. Clean sheets Shots in box conc. Big chances conc.
Sheff Utd 36 1 160 46
Luton 22 2 123 34
Man Utd 16 4 151 28
So, who is the best captain?

The player and team data is very much in Haaland’s favour – he seems the likeliest to have more scoring opportunities - and it will ultimately come down to his finishing on Sunday afternoon.

Both Sheff Utd and Luton’s statistics also indicate Saka and Watkins can extend their outstanding runs of form, with the Arsenal star’s extra creativity making him the standout alternative to Haaland in Gameweek 27.

View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 27 in Fantasy Premier League

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