Analysis: Why Arsenal look a team transformed since winter break

Alex Keble discusses how Arsenal have transformed their fortunes since their winter break to Dubai.

Team analysis: Arsenal

Should Mikel Arteta’s side keep riding this wave to their first Premier League title in 20 years, Arsenal’s mid-season player break spent in Dubai will enter into folklore.

Since returning from the United Arab Emirates, where Arsenal travelled to recuperate in the sun following a run of one win in seven over the winter period, they have a 100 per cent record across four Premier League matches.

“It was great, it was a phenomenal camp in every sense,” Arteta said before the winning streak began. “We worked really hard on things that we wanted to do, and we recharged our batteries.

“The context and the change in environment in beautiful weather helped, and the togetherness and the moments that we shared together were great. We feel fully recharged.”

At the time, it was perhaps easy to dismiss these quotes as simple manager talk; as soundbites any coach would give to the media.

But beating Crystal Palace 5-0, Nottingham Forest 2-1, Liverpool 3-1, and most recently West Ham United 6-0 in successive matches tells us Arteta really meant it.

To what extent have Arsenal improved though, what exactly did they work on in Dubai, and will this form last through to May?

Arsenal’s attacking numbers are way up

Refreshed and recharged, Arsenal are suddenly playing with free-flowing confidence in the final third, and as a consequence their attacking numbers have improved significantly – as shown by comparing their first 20 Premier League matches to their most recent four.

Scoring 16 goals since their Dubai break, Arsenal’s goals-per-game average has more than doubled, from 1.9 to 4.0, while their Expected Goals (xG) per game is up from 1.9 to 2.9.

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The Gunners were previously scoring exactly in line with their xG but they have now "over-scored" it by 4.5 across the last four matches. They are not only producing more chances overall, they are also scoring a higher percentage of them.

Unsurprisingly, this shows up in the stats as increased creativity. They are now averaging 17 key passes per match, up from 12.3, while their number of passes into the penalty area has risen from 13.0 per match to 19.3 per match.

Arsenal's improved numbers

Arsenal are also shooting more (20.0 per match, up from 16.3) and are producing more shot-creating actions (36.8 per match, up from 29.4).

Defensively, they have improved too. Their underlying metrics – including tackles, interceptions, and errors leading to shots - are essentially unchanged, and yet their xG Against (xGA) has dropped by 50 per cent, from 0.8 to 0.4 per game.

Rice’s set-pieces lead to fast starts

What is most notable about Arsenal’s last four outings is the speed and fluency of their attacking, as if the players are suddenly unshackled from the well-worn grooves of Arteta’s attacking instructions.

There is little doubt this can be attributed in part to the batteries being “fully recharged”, but arguably the bigger difference has been how early in matches Arsenal are scoring, which, in turn, relaxes the players and forces the opposition to come out of their shell.

Prior to the break, Arsenal’s defeats were almost exclusively in matches when an opposition low block frustrated them and slowed them down.

What has changed is the simple fact that Declan Rice has been put on set-pieces - and he is very, very good at them.

After taking only three corners in Arsenal's first 20 matches, he has now taken 12 in their last four.

Rice assisted the first goal in the 11th minute against Crystal Palace and the 32nd minute against West Ham, in each case opening the floodgates. Arsenal visibly relaxed, their opponents' shoulders slumped, and from that advantageous position they found it easier to cut through the lines.

Rice's corner assist v Crystal Palace

Rice's corner assist v West Ham

Palace and West Ham crumbled, hence the extra space for Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli to play at their best.

Meanwhile, against Liverpool Arsenal set up in an unusually defensive stance, and another early goal meant Arteta’s side could play into space on the counter-attack.

Fast starts, facilitated by a new set-piece taker and a one-off system at Liverpool, explain Arsenal’s return to form more than anything else.

Frontline tweaks have given Arsenal greater purpose

However, Arsenal have still improved tactically across these four games.

“There are things that we can improve on and do better, and those marginal gains have to be installed,” Arteta said after the Dubai break. “They have been installed in the last 10 days and we have to see them coming out.”

The Palace win was almost entirely thanks to two set-piece goals in the first half, which brought the worst out of a down-on-their-luck side and allowed Arsenal to ease to a big win. But the other three matches contained tactical qualities that Arteta worked on in Dubai.

In the victories over Liverpool and West Ham, Kai Havertz played a subtle but starring role as a "false nine" in the former, and a left-sided eight in the latter.

Club News Analysis: How Arsenal hammered the Hammers External Link

Analysis: How Arsenal hammered the Hammers

The two roles meant occupying almost exactly the same position, and whereas earlier in the campaign Havertz struggled, he is now picking up superb positions and his team-mates fire the ball into him more regularly.

The opener against Liverpool - another early goal that set the tone - was the result of Havertz’s presence distracting Alexis Mac Allister, leaving Martin Odegaard (in the centre-circle below) free. He then fed Havertz, whose initial shot was saved by Alisson, but the ball broke to Saka to score.

Against West Ham, the corner from which Arsenal scored the opener was won via a sharp progressive pass into Havertz, who took up a far better position than we are used to seeing him in.

Ben White’s surprise central-midfield position (circled below) had confused the West Ham midfielders, leaving a big gap between the lines, but nevertheless Havertz showed improvement by sitting in a Granit Xhaka-like space.

Tweaking Havertz’s role is likely to be one of the details Arsenal worked on in Dubai, as is the role of Oleksandr Zinchenko, whose performances had dipped substantially before his superb showing in the 2-1 win at Nott'm Forest.

Zinchenko had 107 touches of the ball, more than anyone else, and played four key passes, his most in a match this season. Coupled with Gabriel Jesus’s movement, it was reminiscent of Arsenal at their best in the first half of 2022/23.

Can Arsenal keep this form going?

In such a small sample size, inevitably there isn’t one overarching reason that explains Arsenal’s four wins from four.

Instead, it’s the combined effect of individual improvements - Zinchenko and Jesus against Forest, Saka scoring four goals in four, Havertz taking up better positions, Rice being put on corners, and the unique tactical set-up of the Liverpool match.

But all those small changes can add up to a big, and lasting difference. Certainly the knock-on effect has been greater output from Odegaard and Saka, who have been unplayable this month, and as momentum builds, so too will Arsenal’s self-belief.

In fact, looking at their rolling xG and xG Against numbers, Arsenal are seemingly better than ever.

What’s more, Arsenal’s defending has improved substantially this season compared to last to become the best in the country - they have conceded fewer goals than anyone else in the Premier League - thanks to Rice’s influence at the base of midfield.

If they can keep up their set-piece output, and if the upturn in confidence among the forward line can hold, then Arsenal will stay in the race through until May.

Arsenal's next five Premier League matches

Arsenal

16:00 Sun 19 May EVE (H)

Arsenal

16:00 Sun 19 May EVE (H)