How will European ties affect clubs' Premier League ambitions?

European football returns this week with the first batch of UEFA Champions League (UCL) knockout games. As is tradition, it signifies the beginning of the “business end” of the season.

From here on in, the matches will start piling up for the Premier League teams who are towards the top of the table, testing squad depth and durability.

Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion and West Ham United are still in European competitions.

Only the two clubs left in the Champions League - Man City and Arsenal - have continental matches this month. But by mid-March any analysis of the fixture list - the run-in and the various battles in the top half - will have to take into account European ties scattered across the schedule.

Here’s a look at how each team’s upcoming European matches could affect their Premier League ambitions.

Man City’s Copenhagen challenge distracts Liverpool game

On Tuesday evening, Man City continue their defence of the Champions League away at Copenhagen, who caused a huge upset in the group stage by beating Manchester United 4-3 at Parken Stadium and drawing 0-0 with Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena.

They are no pushovers, then, and as such could distract and disrupt Man City’s preparation for crucial Premier League fixtures around the two legs of the last-16 tie.

Man City's fixtures

Plus, there’s history here to indicate it could be a gruelling fixture that impacts City’s title challenge.

Last season Man City won every single match that followed a Champions League outing, except for a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in October that followed a 0-0 draw against Tuesday’s opponents, Copenhagen.

Man City host Chelsea this Saturday evening, four days after the first match in Denmark, which could make Mauricio Pochettino’s fast and furious football a little more challenging than it otherwise would be.

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However, Pep Guardiola has a deep bench and is happy to rotate in order to keep players fresh. Indeed, Manuel Akanji and Matheus Nunes started the 2-0 victory over Everton, with Kyle Walker and Kevin De Bruyne rested until a game-changing 30-minute cameo.

But rotation might not feel like an option in early March. On 6 March, when Copenhagen go to the Etihad Stadium, Man City will have just hosted Manchester United three days earlier – and will face Liverpool four days later.

Last season's Treble was proof Man City can cope fine on multiple fronts, but at no point in 2022/23 did they have such a tough set of Premier League fixtures in close proximity to their Champions League ones.

Unless Man City beat Copenhagen comfortably in the first leg, they will have to field a full-strength team just days before a huge match against title rivals Liverpool.

The title race

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Arsenal ARS	34	+56	77
2	Man City MCI	33	+48	76
3	Liverpool LIV	35	+41	75

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Arsenal aren’t used to competing on multiple fronts

The fixture list is more forgiving for Arsenal, whose Champions League tie against Porto begins next Wednesday in Portugal.

Mikel Arteta’s side have Burnley at Turf Moor this weekend and then Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium three days after their Champions League last-16 first leg.

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Either side of Porto’s visit to north London on March 12, Arsenal have Brentford at home and Chelsea at home; three games in eight days at the Emirates.

But there’s a catch. This is an Arsenal team who tend to go through patches of poor form characterised by weariness in the legs and profligacy in front of goal, and so a busy schedule might affect them more than Man City or Liverpool.

Arsenal's fixtures

Chelsea and Newcastle are both high-octane opponents who will capitalise on any tiredness in the legs, and these are fixtures that could cause Arsenal problems. 

What’s more, this is the first time they will truly be competing on two fronts. Arsenal got to the last 16 of the UEFA Europa League last season, but Arteta made five outfield changes for both the first and second legs against Sporting Lisbon.

Presumably he won’t make so many changes for the Champions League, meaning Arsenal could find themselves worn into the ground again as the season goes on, especially if – as expected – they beat Porto and progress to the quarter-finals.

Liverpool will surely rest players either side of crucial Man City clash

Arsenal might not feel able to rotate, but Liverpool surely will.

The Europa League is a competition Jurgen Klopp takes seriously and yet - being obviously secondary to the Premier League – Liverpool’s last-16 match will not get top billing in March.

That’s because their European fixtures are due to take place on 7 March and 14 March, the two Thursdays either side of their Premier League home match against Man City. 

Liverpool's fixtures around last-16 Europa League tie

*Match against Everton subject to change due to potential involvement in FA Cup quarter-final

No matter who Liverpool draw in the Europa League (they won’t find out until the round of 32 is completed next Thursday), Klopp is almost certain to make changes in order to clear some space either side of that vital title duel, especially with the Merseyside derby at Everton coming three days after the Europa League second leg.

The big question will be how many players to swap out. Does Klopp change the entire starting XI, focusing minds solely on the task of Man City, or does he make five or six and attempt to juggle both competitions?

Aston Villa face agonising choice as Spurs game looms large 

Liverpool’s big squad, recent success in Europe and chance for a league title in Klopp’s final season makes it easy to sort their priorities. 

For Villa, the choice is far harder.

Unai Emery regularly started fringe players in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage, but he may feel pressure to change tack in the knockout phases. 

Winning the club’s first silverware since 1996 has to be a priority for Emery, and yet a continuation of Thursday night football will hit their chances of qualifying for the Champions League. 

There is no obvious answer, no clear path, but the situation will come to a head one way or the other in mid-March when sandwiched between Europa Conference League matches is a huge home match against top-four rivals Tottenham Hotspur.

Villa's fixtures around Europa Conference League tie

As the league table currently stands, the visit of Spurs looks like the biggest match of Villa's season. It is desperately unlucky that it falls between two Thursday fixtures against an as-yet unnamed European opponent.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Villa are away at West Ham – another European hopeful – after the second leg of their Europa Conference League last-16 tie. 

Champions League race

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
4	Aston Villa AVL	35	+21	67
5	Spurs TOT	32	+16	60
6	Man Utd MUN	34	+1	54
7	Newcastle NEW	34	+19	53
8	West Ham WHU	35	-9	49
9	Chelsea CHE	33	+4	48

Brighton’s hopes of top six might further fade in March

Brighton are only six points behind Man Utd in sixth and 11 points behind Villa in fifth, but having won just two of their last nine Premier League matches Roberto De Zerbi’s side are fading fast.

There is plenty of time to recover, of course, but at the moment it looks as though going deep in the Europa League is their best chance of a standout season. 

Winning the tournament is not outside the realms of possibility, but reaching the latter stages could derail their domestic campaign.

It has already had an impact. Brighton won one, drew three, and lost two of their Premier League matches that immediately followed a Europa League group-stage fixture.

Next month, their last-16 match will be played on consecutive Thursdays either side of a trip to Nottingham Forest, before the Seagulls host Man City the following weekend. 

Brighton's fixtures around last-16 Europa League tie

*Match against City subject to change due to potential involvement in FA Cup quarter-final 

It is difficult to look at their situation and back Brighton to climb the Premier League table while also doing well in the Europa League.

At this juncture, the fans – and maybe De Zerbi himself – will want to focus more on their European adventure.

West Ham get lucky with their fixture list

West Ham have form in Europe. They won last season’s Europa Conference League, juggling the 15 extra matches by prioritising Europe as David Moyes’s side finished with just 40 Premier League points.

Their domestic record after Conference League contests read: five wins, three draws and five defeats. This season it’s a similar story, with West Ham collecting eight points from the six matches that followed their Europa League group matches.

Moyes will believe, quite rightly, that West Ham can go far in Europe’s second tier, and therefore he will be pleased that their last-16 tie sits either side of a home match against Burnley. 

West Ham's fixtures around last-16 Europa League tie

Immediately after it, they are at home to Villa, who will be just as affected by a Thursday night European excursion. 

It has worked out nicely for West Ham, who even get Fulham at home in between two potential Europa League quarter-final matches. West Ham fans can once again look forward to better times in Europe.