Why De Bruyne's unique skillset is so important to Man City

Alex Keble takes a look at what Kevin De Bruyne's return can means for Manchester City and the title race.

Player analysis: Kevin De Bruyne

The Belgian’s comeback went better than anyone could have expected.

His goal and assist against Newcastle United - both brilliant and uniquely "De Bruynian" - turned a frustrating day into one of the most significant in Man City’s season.

It certainly appeared to be emblematic of what his return means; they're back into a well-oiled machine.

That is hardly a surprise. Man City are notably less creative or successful without their world-class playmaker. Since the start of 2022/23, they have won 73.5 per cent of matches (and 2.4 points per match) with De Bruyne in the team compared with 66.7 per cent (2.2 points per match) without him.

Performances and results this season have obviously been affected by his absence, and although Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez have deputised relatively successfully, neither is capable of replicating De Bruyne’s attacking numbers.

Man City's creativity stats 2022/23*

*In all competitions

Well, they don’t have to anymore. De Bruyne’s performance against Newcastle was a microcosm of everything he offers Man City, from his intelligent positional play to his capacity to conjure an assist from nothing with his magnificent crossing ability.

Analysing his goal and assist at St James Park' reveals why he will change the trajectory of Man City’s season.

De Bruyne's goal: Movement & positional play unrivalled

Over the last couple of months, as fatigue sets in, Newcastle have increasingly allowed a large space to open up between their defensive and attacking lines.

There is often a hole in the No 10 zone for opposition players, which is why Pep Guardiola instructed both of his wingers to tuck into these pockets last weekend.

However, as Newcastle dropped deeper in the second half, that room began to disappear - until De Bruyne came on.

He lurked in the No 10 position, refusing to be drawn out of it even when there appeared to be no space. That’s because, presumably having noticed the tactical pattern from the bench, he knew it would eventually open up.

And indeed it did, but only because De Bruyne made a highly unusual movement out to the right to lose his marker.

Newcastle thought they had the angles covered. But just as that typically-large gap opened up between the lines, De Bruyne made a superb run and Rodri found him with an exquisite pass, creating the opening for the Belgian’s goal.

This didn’t just take immaculate timing and world-class movement. It also took patience and persistence. Note how many touches De Bruyne took in that exact same strip of the pitch, between the Newcastle lines.

The ability to make a darting run like that, creating space for him to gallop into, should make Man City a little quicker and more direct.

Guardiola’s side have been occasionally too ponderous this season, and indeed their number of fast breaks has been cut in half from 0.58 per match in 2022/23 to 0.26 per match this campaign, while their progressive passes were down from 54.6 to 49.3 per 90 minutes prior to the Newcastle win.

De Bruyne injects a little more urgent, straight-lined passing and carrying into the team, as we saw in his cameo at Newcastle.

De Bruyne's assist: Crossing & creativity

That capacity to lurk in the right areas and then suddenly switch it on is a classic De Bruyne trait we will see on plenty more occasions over the coming months. And City need it.

In all three Premier League defeats this season Man City have hit Expected Goals (xG) figures of less than one, whereas last season they were considerably more creative in the four matches they lost.

As the below table shows, last season Guardiola’s side averaged almost twice the xG per match in which they lost (1.13 to 0.67). Their chief concern this year, in De Bruyne’s absence, has been creating chances in those tougher matches.

Man City's xG in PL defeats 22/23 & 23/24

It was a similar story against Newcastle. Man City amassed an xG of 1.29 over the first 69 minutes, but that jumped by 1.71 to 3 by the final whistle, with De Bruyne personally responsible, via a pass or shot, for 1.31 of that figure.

Aside from De Bruyne’s brilliant finishing, as we saw for his goal, and his movement and positional play creating space for himself and others, the Belgian increases City’s productivity via his crossing.

And he loves crossing. In only 24 minutes on the pitch, De Bruyne attempted nine crosses, which was four more than anyone else. Kieran Trippier and Alvarez produced five apiece – and both stars played the entire contest.

De Bruyne’s assist has not been classified by Opta as a cross, but the technique used and trajectory of the ball was certainly cross-like.

In fact, the angle from which it was taken, so central on the pitch, only adds to its brilliance. How on earth did he see this pass?

De Bruyne's assist v Newcastle

Prior to Saturday’s match, Man City were averaging 16.5 crosses per Premier League match this season, down from 19.5 the season before, and in 2022/23 De Bruyne made the fifth-most crosses in the Premier League, with 226.

They have self-evidently missed this quality, and with it back, Man City ought to be able to create more chances – to conjure something out of nothing – in tight contests against low-block sides.

Where does Foden fit in?

A capacity to turn innocuous possession into assists, as De Bruyne did in the final minutes at Newcastle, might just come in handy over the next month when Man City face a string of Premier League opponents who will defend deep.

Before the Manchester derby on 2 March, five of Man City’s six Premier League matches are against teams in the bottom half. Now is the perfect time for De Bruyne – via his crosses, movement and outside the box shooting – to come back and face some frustrating defensive blockades.

Manchester City

Sat 13 Apr
(H)

5 - 1 W

Thu 25 Apr
(A)

0 - 4 W

Sun 28 Apr
(A)

0 - 2 W

17:30 Sat 04 May WOL (H) 12:30 Sat 11 May FUL (A)

The only slight negative from a Man City perspective is where that leaves Foden, who has been in superb form recently as the team’s No 10.

Prior to the Newcastle match, Foden amassed four goals and two assists in his last four matches in all competitions, seemingly revelling in a more senior role. But De Bruyne’s return might push him out wide again, and as the stats would suggest, a downturn in his productivity. 

Foden with & without De Bruyne since last season

Then again, Guardiola has hinted at the prospect of using Foden as the left-sided No 8 alongside De Bruyne, particularly against weaker opponents who will minimise space in the final third.

“In certain games, of course they can play both together in that position in the pockets in the middle close to the box,” Guardiola said before City's FA Cup third-round tie against Huddersfield Town. “In certain other games for the stability, maybe not. We have to see day-by-day.”

“Stability” is not the buzzword of Man City’s upcoming run of matches against bottom-half opponents, suggesting we might see Foden and De Bruyne together.

But even if Foden is back on the wing, there is no downside for Man City supporters. Their chances of lifting a fourth consecutive Premier League title have just risen significantly. And that’s before we even consider the fact that Erling Haaland will be back in a couple of weeks.