The absence of a host of big-hitters in Gameweek 21 of Fantasy Premier League adds an extra element of risk to the captaincy decision.
Managers are missing the top-scoring players this season, Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Son Heung-min (£9.8m), who are playing in international tournaments, while Erling Haaland (£13.9m) remains doubtful for Manchester City’s trip to Newcastle United.
Assessing the ownership of players and the fixtures for Gameweek 21, the captaincy decision for many managers will likely focus on three players: Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£9.1m) at home to Crystal Palace, Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) away at Everton and Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (£5.7m) at home to Fulham.
Saka and Watkins are the two most-selected players in Fantasy, found in 61 and 55 per cent of squads respectively, while Palmer has soared to 32 per cent ownership on the back of more than 1million transfers in this Gameweek.
The Chelsea star is certainly the form player of the trio heading into Gameweek 21.
Palmer has scored three goals and supplied two assists in his last four matches to claim 34 points, matching the COMBINED output of Watkins and Saka.
The Villa and Arsenal duo have each scored once, with Watkins also supplying two assists.
Players' form in last four matches
| Player | Pts | Goal involvements | Goals | Assists | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | 34 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Watkins | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Saka | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The underlying numbers show that Saka has been somewhat unfortunate recently.
His 18 shots in the last four Gameweeks are joint-top with Salah and have eclipsed the 17 of Palmer.
The Arsenal winger has boasted a far superior close-range threat than Palmer, leading him by 14 shots in the box to four. Furthermore, he also beats him for creativity by 11 key passes to nine.
While most of Palmer's efforts have come from distance, the Chelsea star's seven shots on target are the most of the trio, while he has also bettered his rivals for converting shots into goals.
Watkins fares the worst by some margin across all these stats. He has recorded the fewest shots, big chances, shots on target and key passes of the three.
Attacking stats in last four matches
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Goal conversion | Key passes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saka | 18 | 14 | 5.6% | 11 |
| Palmer | 17 | 4 | 17.6% | 9 |
| Watkins | 7 | 6 | 14.3% | 6 |
What about the home and away form?
There’s little to separate Saka and Watkins in the home/away analysis, with Saka playing at Emirates Stadium while Watkins travels to Everton.
Saka has the slight advantage for shots in the box, producing 23 in home matches compared with the 21 of Watkins in away matches.
Palmer has played 340+ and 440+ minutes fewer than Saka and Watkins respectively, in the analysis, yet his statistics for big chances are particularly impressive.
At Stamford Bridge, where he will play this weekend against Fulham, Palmer has had six big chances and created four such opportunities this season, meaning he has been involved in 10 big chances in home matches.
And in terms of frequency, his 42.5 minutes per big chance involvement is by far the quickest of the three, with Saka and Watkins trailing behind on 64.8 and 79.5 minutes, respectively.
Home/away stats compared in 23/24
| Player | Shots in box | Big chances | Big chances created | Mins/big chance involvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saka (H) | 23 | 6 | 6 | 64.8 |
| Watkins (A) | 21 | 7 | 4 | 79.5 |
| Palmer (H) | 10 | 6 | 4 | 42.9 |
Assessing the opponents’ defences
Analysing each player’s opponents can help identify any weaknesses to target.
All three opposition backlines have struggled recently. They have managed just a single clean sheet between them across their last four matches, courtesy of Everton.
In that period, Fulham and Everton are worst and second-worst respectively across the league for conceding both goals and shots in the box.
Palace, meanwhile, have allowed their opponents 15 big chances over the same spell, the second-worst record.
Opponents’ defending GW17-20
| Team | Goals conc. | Clean sheets | Shots in box conc. | Big chances conc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 9 | 0 | 43 | 11 |
| Everton | 8 | 1 | 40 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 6 | 0 | 37 | 15 |
The home/away team data looks very encouraging for Palmer in particular.
Fulham have conceded 23 goals and 35 big chances on the road over the season so far, both of which are the second-worst totals in the league.
Everton’s numbers are likely to drive more managers away from looking at Watkins, particularly the relatively few number of big chances allowed by the Toffees at home, in comparison to those of Palace on the road.
Opponents’ home/away defending in 23/24
| Team | Goals conc. | Clean sheets | Shots in box conc. | Big chances conc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham (A) | 23 | 2 | 114 | 35 |
| Crystal Palace (A) | 15 | 3 | 97 | 28 |
| Everton (H) | 12 | 3 | 76 | 19 |
So, who is the best captain?
The statistics look encouraging for Palmer and Saka’s armband prospects and there would be no surprise if both delivered more returns.
Certainly, Saka has been very unlucky of late and the numbers show there is potential for both goals and assists against Palace.
Nonetheless, Palmer’s frequency of big chance involvement is a big factor in his favour.
When we also consider Fulham’s woeful away record, the Chelsea midfielder could be poised for his fifth double-figure haul of the campaign in Gameweek 21.
