Who is over and underperforming their xG in 2023/24?

9 Jan 2024
Son-Darwin Nunez

See the best and worst finishers so far this season as we analyse players' Expected Goals tallies

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With over half of the 2023/24 Premier League matches completed, we take a look at the key statistics so far, discovering the top 10 and who is the leading player for that measurement at each club.

Biggest overperformers for xG

Tottenham Hotspur captain Son Heung-min has been back to his best this season, with the statistics showing how he is outperforming his Expected Goals (xG) data. The South Korean has scored 12 times in the Premier League this season despite accumulating an xG of only 7.12.

Wolverhampton Wanderers forward Hwang Hee-chan also makes the list and is one of only three players, along with West Ham United's summer signing Mohammed Kudus, to have outperformed their xG by more than four.

Player Club Goals xG xG swing
Son Heung-min Spurs 12 7.12 +4.88
Mohammed Kudus West Ham 6 1.89 +4.11
Hwang Hee-chan Wolves 10 5.96 +4.04
Jarrod Bowen West Ham 11 7.36 +3.64
Bernardo Silva Man City 5 1.73 +3.27
Leon Bailey Aston Villa 6 2.94 +3.06
Mathias Jensen Brentford 3 0.48 +2.52
Dejan Kulusevski Spurs 5 2.49 +2.51
Wilson Odobert Burnley 3 0.57 +2.43
Evan Ferguson Brighton 6 3.65 +2.35
Biggest underperformers for xG

On the flipside, some players should have scored more when comparing their xG to their actual tally.

Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the worst offender in this department, having underperformed his xG by 3.92, while Liverpool's Darwin Nunez is just behind him with -3.66.

Chelsea striker Nicolas Jackson is a third player to have scored at least three fewer goals than they should have, with his xG standing at -3.59.

Player Club Goals xG xG swing
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Everton 3 6.92 -3.92 
Darwin Nunez Liverpool 5 8.66 -3.66 
Nicolas Jackson Chelsea 7 10.59 -3.59
Enzo Fernandez Chelsea 2 4.77 -2.77 
Yoane Wissa Brentford 4 6.45 -2.45 
Rasmus Hojlund Man Utd 1 3.10 -2.10 
Brennan Johnson Spurs 1 3.06 -2.06 
Jefferson Lerma Crystal Palace 0 2.06 -2.06 
Pedro Porro Spurs 0 2.02 -2.02 
Marcus Rashford Man Utd 3 5.00 -2.00 
Also in this series

Part 2: Most shots
Part 3: Most assists
Part 4: Most chances created
Part 5: Passes into final third
Part 6: Successful dribbles
Part 7: Fastest player
Part 8: Tackles
Part 9: Interceptions
Part 10: Distance covered total
Part 11: Distance covered in a match
Part 12: Most minutes played

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