Alex Keble analyses where the latest matches could be won and lost.
Can in-form Luton pour misery on Chelsea?
As finales go, it would be a fitting curtain-closer to 2023 if Luton Town were victorious on Saturday while Chelsea’s year ended with a whimper.
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Luton celebrated promotion in May and, after back-to-back Premier League wins over the festive period, have enjoyed one of the finest years in their history.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have recorded their lowest points return in a calendar year since 1993 despite having the most expensively-assembled squad in the world.
Mauricio Pochettino just can’t put a run together. Only once this season have they won consecutive league matches, which is why Noni Madueke’s late penalty winner against Crystal Palace won’t necessarily mark a turning point.
Madueke's penalty v Palace
Noni's penalty was too cold. 😮💨#CFC | #CheCry pic.twitter.com/pZQhJQMlLb
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) December 28, 2023
In fact, Chelsea have lost each of their last four Premier League away matches. That will give Luton the confidence to build upon recent wins and claim a big scalp.
Even tactically, Luton have the upper hand. Pochettino’s side have struggled to break down a low block all season, losing three of the four matches in which they held 70 per cent or more possession.
As in the 1-0 win over Newcastle United, Luton can sit deep and await opportunities for ex-Chelsea player Ross Barkley to break.
They may never get a better opportunity to beat Chelsea at Kenilworth Road.
How does Emery prevent winless run forming?
It is imperative that Villa do not let their momentum falter. The manner of their 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford was disappointing and very unlike Unai Emery’s side, suggesting it was either a strange quirk and a one-off – or the sign of an impending collapse.
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Following on from a 1-1 home draw with Sheff Utd, Villa must avoid the fate of a three-match winless run to see out 2023.
Beat Burnley at Vila Park and they can put that mini-blip behind them without a second thought.
Fail to win their second consecutive home match against a bottom three side and Villa’s slim hopes of a title challenge will disappear completely.
Ominously for Villa fans, Burnley are fresh from a 2-0 win at Fulham in their last away match. Then again, they haven’t won consecutive away Premier League matches since May 2021, while Villa have earned 50 points at Villa Park in 2023, their most in a calendar year since 1983.
Which of Frank or Hodgson will run into trouble?
Although neither club are currently in trouble, both Palace and Brentford face the same lurking threat of being pulled into a relegation scrap if things don’t improve. Saturday’s Selhurst Park London derby is the rare sight of a mid-table six-pointer.
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Palace, without a win in eight Premier League matches and winless in seven at home, are now only three points above 18th-placed Luton.
Brentford, who have lost six of their last seven encounters and each of their last four, are only one point better off.
Thomas Frank certainly isn’t looking over his shoulder just yet, especially with Ivan Toney due back from suspension after this weekend’s match, but defeat to Palace would set off alarm bells.
They are already ringing for Roy Hodgson, although Palace’s poor form is mitigated somewhat by a difficult fixture list; they were unlucky to suffer a late defeat at Chelsea, took a point at Man City and lost narrowly to Liverpool across their last four matches.
But there will be no more excuses if they fail to beat down-on-their-luck Brentford.
Can Sheff Utd repeat Villa performance at City?
“It proved again how special this group of players is and the mentality that we have in our bones,” was Pep Guardiola’s assessment of Manchester City’s comeback victory at Everton. He makes a good point.
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Fatigue has been an issue this season, so to dig deep as Man City did was evidence they will go the distance again.
It is bad news for Sheffield United, who visit the Etihad Stadium as the home fans welcome back their world champions.
But there is some hope for the Blades, however small. Granted, Man City have never lost a Premier League match against Sheff Utd, winning eight and drawing three, and have won the last six in a row, but City have also drawn each of their last three home league encounters.
More pertinently, Chris Wilder’s side ended Aston Villa’s 15-match home winning streak with a gutsy 1-1 draw, and a similar defensive showing might just keep Man City quiet.
Wilder has certainly got the Blades more compact and resilient, allowing a combined 1.5 Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the last two games (0.9 v Villa and 0.6 v Luton). Any complacency from City and the visitors could be in business.
Will Hwang capitalise on Doucoure absence?
Gary O’Neil is quietly doing a superb job at Wolverhampton Wanderers and on Saturday his team might have the opportunity to break into the top 10 for the first time this season with victory against Everton.
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Their chances are improved by Abdoulaye Doucoure’s continued absence.
Everton have lost both of their Premier League matches since his injury and any fragility in the Toffees midfield will be pounced upon by O’Neil’s instructions to dribble through the lines on the counter.
Wolves have attempted more take-ons, with 440, than any other side in the Premier League this season, with Hwang Hee-chan (88) and Matheus Cunha (55) leading the charge on the break.
Hwang is in the best form of his career. His brace against Brentford on Wednesday took him to 10 Premier League goals this season, which is just short of his best-ever return of 12 for RB Salzburg in 2016/17.
His battle with Everton’s rising star Jarrad Branthwaite will be a fascinating head-to-head that should decide whether Wolves can extend their unbeaten run at Molineux to eight matches.
Will Nuno slow down Man Utd’s revival?
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The Nuno Espirito Santo era got lift-off via a Chris Wood hat-trick at Newcastle on Boxing Day, suggesting a new-manager bounce is on the cards as Nottingham Forest look to arrest their slide towards the bottom three.
Nuno deserves credit for masterminding a result built on packing the team with quick attackers to buzz around the central fulcrum Wood, who had only started 12 Premier League matches in the last 18 months prior to Nuno’s appointment.
Manchester United, who have failed to score in each of their last three Premier League away matches, could be vulnerable to Nuno’s quick-counter approach.
Their 2-0 defeat at West Ham United wasn’t dissimilar to Forest’s win at Newcastle in that regard.
But this is hardly an ideal time to be facing Erik ten Hag’s side, who came back from 2-0 down to beat Villa in a Boxing Day thriller thanks to another out-of-sorts No 9.
Rasmus Hojlund’s winner ended his 14-match goalless run in the Premier League, and from the look on his face when the ball hit the net, it might have meant more to him than Wood’s treble.
Wood versus Hojlund is an intriguing head-to-head on Saturday, not least because it is a battle we would not have dreamed of highlighting only a week ago.
Can Jimenez return put Arsenal’s title run in jeopardy?
Fulham have sorely missed Raul Jimenez. After back-to-back 5-0 wins earlier this month, both inspired by Jimenez goals, they have lost their last three (a run that began with Jimenez’s red card) by an aggregate score of 0-8.
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The Mexico international is back for the visit of Arsenal, whom Fulham held to a 2-2 draw at Emirates Stadium back in August. This won’t be an easy game for the visitors.
Defeat to West Ham United in midweek makes this a must-win for Arteta and Arsenal, a team no longer looking quite so in control at the top end. Lose at Craven Cottage and the Gunners could drop as low as fourth and just one point above Spurs.
Fortunately for the visitors, Arsenal have won each of their last five Premier League away matches at Fulham, scoring three or more goals in each of the last four.
Will tactical battle provide more entertainment?
Tottenham Hotspur’s 4-2 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion on Thursday evening was a wildly frenetic night of Premier League football that could so easily have ended in a point – or maybe more – for a Spurs team that were 4-0 down with 80 minutes on the clock.
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That’s what Ange Postecoglou’s (and Roberto De Zerbi’s) football gives you - all-out, constant and urgent attacking football that threatens the opposition and your own defenders.
We could be in for an equally entertaining match when Bournemouth visit north London on Sunday.
Andoni Iraola’s side aren’t as frantic as Brighton, but what they offer is superb use of transitional space via a flying front four who will enjoy playing against Postecoglou’s daring high line.
With Spurs happy to break back the other way when one of those transitional attacks are halted, there is every chance of the contest becoming hopelessly stretched; Spurs (198) and AFC Bournemouth (195) are second and third respectively for successful take-ons in the Premier League this season.
Injury-hit Spurs continue to rely on full-backs Ben Davies and Emerson Royal filling in at centre-back, handing the advantage to in-form Dominic Solanke, who has scored eight goals in his last seven matches.
Those goals have fired Bournemouth to six wins in their last seven matches and more points (19) than anyone else in that time. They will have watched with relish as Brighton tore through Spurs’ makeshift back four – only to become a little uneasy when momentum dramatically swung in the dying minutes.
Sunday’s match should be a lot of fun.
Can Liverpool capitalise on Newcastle’s mental fatigue?
Newcastle’s weariness is common knowledge by now. The manner of their 3-1 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday followed a clear pattern and suggested Eddie Howe’s injury-hit side are unlikely to take anything from Anfield – where a psychological fatigue already exists.
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The Magpies haven’t won a single one of their last 27 Premier League matches at Anfield, drawing five and losing 22, with only Everton (28 games at Chelsea) enduring a longer winless away run in the competition.
It gets worse. Liverpool have won 10 Premier League matches against Newcastle despite conceding the first goal, are unbeaten in 14 encounters against them and have won each of the last five meetings.
This looks like a good opportunity for Jurgen Klopp to get back to winning ways at Anfield, then, after consecutive draws against Manchester United and Arsenal. Indeed, Newcastle have won just one of their last 11 away matches in the Premier League, losing their last four in a row.
Anfield can be an intimidating place to go, especially when the Liverpool players race out of the blocks. If that happens on Monday, a jaded Newcastle won’t have an answer.
Will another possession v counter game get away from Brighton?
West Ham have been in brilliant form for a couple of months now, winning 10 of their last 14 matches in all competitions and their last three in a row in the Premier League.
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Perhaps a statement victory at Emirates Stadium, one that lifted the Hammers to within three points of fifth spot, will finally get David Moyes’s side the attention they deserve.
They can anticipate further success on Tuesday evening when the visit of Brighton provides Moyes with his ideal tactical battle.
This should be a classic example of possession versus counter-attacks - the kind of match West Ham love and Brighton hate.
After a tough few months Brighton were at their free-flowing best against Spurs and it isn’t difficult to see why. Postecoglou’s openness plays into De Zerbi’s hands, allowing his team to pass neatly around the high press and gallop into space.
West Ham will do nothing of the sort, much to Brighton’s frustration. The Seagulls struggle to break down low blocks and this season have won 15 points from eight matches (1.9 points per match) in which they held less than 60 per cent possession, and 14 points from 11 (1.3 points per match) when holding more than 60 per cent.
West Ham have already beaten Brighton 3-1 this season in a smash-and-grab style. Tuesday should bring more of the same.
