Fantasy Premier League

Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 16?

By The Scout 7 Dec 2023

The Scout checks in on the player and club home/away data to determine the best armband pick

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Erling Haaland (£14.0m) and Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) both have the fixtures to bounce back from their midweek blanks and deliver big armband hauls in Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League.

Manchester City’s Haaland visits a Luton Town side who have conceded at least three goals in each of their last two matches.
As for Liverpool's Salah he travels to Crystal Palace, who have conceded at least twice in three successive encounters at Selhurst Park.
Although the pair have not been at their best, Haaland and Salah still place among the three top-scoring players over the last four Gameweeks.
The Man City star earned 32 points, scoring three goals and supplying three assists.

Salah produced two goals and two assists, also earning two clean sheet points as a midfielder in Fantasy.

Players' form compared, GW12-15
Player Pts Goals Assists Blanks Bonus
Haaland 32 3 3 1 4
Salah 29 2 2 1 3

The underlying statistics show Haaland has boasted a far superior goal threat to his premium rival of late.

Man City’s forward has produced double the number of shots in the box as Salah and also leads him by nine big chances to six. 

Liverpool’s Egyptian has a higher goal conversion rate, however, while he has recorded twice the number of big chances created.

Attacking stats compared, GW12-15
Player Shots in box Big chances Goal conversion % Big chances created
Haaland 16 9 18.8% 1
Salah 8 6 22.2% 2
Who has the better away form?

Haaland continues to dominate the goal threat statistics when assessing the duo’s form on the road.
Again, his shots in the box are more than double that of Salah, while he leads the Liverpool star by a massive 21 big chances to four here.

Haaland’s goal conversion rate in away matches is also far superior; he has scored eight goals, which equates to 24.2 per cent of his shots.
Salah, by contrast, has two goals from 18 shots, an 11.1 per cent conversion rate. He does have the advantage for creativity again, with his seven big chances created.

Away stats compared in 23/24
Player Shots in box Big chances Goal conversion % Big chances created
Haaland (A) 32 21 24.2%  2
Salah (A) 14 4 11.1%  7

The team data over the last four Gameweeks indicate Luton have been far more porous than Palace.
Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet, with the Hatters conceding nine goals to the eight of Roy Hodgson’s side.
However, Luton have allowed their opponents more than twice the number of shots inside the box, giving Haaland backers even more encouragement. 
Palace, by contrast, ranked second-best for this statistic among all sides, bettered only by the 20 of Arsenal.   

Opponents’ defensive stats, GW12-15
Team Goals conc. Clean sheets Shots in box conc. Big chances conc.
Luton 9 0 57 11
Crystal Palace 8 0 25 8

The season home/away numbers afford Salah a little more optimism, with just 14 shots in the box conceded separating Luton and Palace here.

Both Salah and Son Heung-min (£9.6m) have already blanked at Kenilworth Road this season, highlighting the Hatters’ ability to produce stubborn displays in home encounters.

Again, though, the Eagles’ defence is the most impressive on show, leading the way for every statistic in the analysis. 

Opponents’ home stats in 23/24
Team Goals conc. Clean sheets Shots in box conc. Big chances conc.
Luton 12 0 68 19
Crystal Palace 10 2 54 13
So, who is the better captain?

Man City may have taken just three points from their last four matches, yet the statistics show Haaland has provided a far greater goal threat than Salah.
Indeed, there’s an argument that Haaland’s drop in goal conversion has been a factor in his side’s stuttering form. He has scored 18.8 per cent of his shots in the last four Gameweeks, down on his season average of 24.1 per cent.

Luton certainly look likely to be more obliging opponents than Palace, affording Haaland the chance to address his drop in output.
While Palace’s recent form also indicates Salah can deliver more attacking returns, Haaland has to be the favourite for the armband.

Also in this series

Part 1: Should managers double up on the Arsenal attack in Fantasy?
Part 2: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 16 Ones to watch
Part 3: Scout Selection: Best FPL team for Gameweek 16
Part 4: FPL experts: What to do with Arsenal defenders?

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